[Webstral]

I find the assumption regarding an intact France a bit naive. If ever there was a neutral country worthy of being hit, France in 1997 and 1998 is a wonderful candidate. The Soviets will want to ensure that France is brought down to size in the midst of any East-West nuclear exchange. The Russians haven't forgotten about Napoleon. A French Republic with its armed forces, manufacturing base, and infrastructure intact is almost certain to emerge as a regional superpower (at the very least). Said superpower might absorb the Netherlands, Germany, Austria, etc. and encroach on Russian territory and Russian interests. Better by far to use the existing Soviet nuclear arsenal to prevent such an outcome.

But what about the French nuclear arsenal? Surely the threat of French nuclear retaliation would stay the Soviets' nuclear trigger finger? Hardly. By the end of 1997, there is hardly a target in the USSR that is the equal of Paris or Marseilles. A one-for-one trade of nukes will be decidedly to the Soviets' advantage. The loss of one more air base, refinery, or dirty industrial city in the Urals can hardly be compared to the destruction of Paris.

The United States and the United Kingdom are unlikely to view favorably the survival of pre-war France. Both countries have sacrificed enormously. The leaders of these countries aren't fools. They know that an untouched France has the capacity to remake Europe in her own image. The anglophone attitude is likely to be '**** that'

Both sides can easily launch from submarines, thereby giving themselves deniability. The French know that both sides have reasons to bear France enmity. Who's to say who launched an SLBM from the South Atlantic? Against whom will the French retaliate? It's a sticky problem so sticky, in fact, that the existing environment of nuclear exchange serves to undo the French ability to prevent nuclear attacks on France by threatening retaliation.

In short, I find it inconceivable that France will not have been struck by a number of nuclear weapons. I see no reason to assume that France is in anything like its pre-war state. The situation probably won't be as bad as it is in the US because the French armed forces are available to maintain order. Nevertheless, France in 2000 cannot be different than the other NATO powers in anything more than degree. Both NATO and the Soviets will have seen to that.

Webstral