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Originally Posted by General Pain
Looking at the global political s(h)ituation today, I can't help but think that there are many plausible scenarios that easily could escalate into full-blown war.
IRAN
Pakistan
North Korea
Global Terrorism
Shortage of drinking water in 3rd. world contries
If there are any others I forgot just mention it in answers..
Your thoughts...
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The key to a full-blown T2K+9 scenario is how to get the Russians involved. The problem with the Global Terrorism scenario is that all of the developed world is on one side and no one is really on the other. The Russians don’t like Radical Islam any more than we do so the Terrorism thing may kick off a great Merc 2009 timeline, but not a full end of the world scenario.
Iran just isn’t a big enough threat either. They are a powerhouse regionally, but it’s another area where everyone who can end the world agrees. If Iran starts lobbing nukes at Israel it would lead to a huge Regional conflict, but I can’t see the Russians threatening global war over the territorial integrity of Iran. They would be as happy as we would be to see “regime change†there.
Pakistan combined with Global Terror could lead to a regional war with India, but both the U.S. and Russia are strong supporters of India and I doubt Pakistan could get very far without U.S. support. If a radical Islamic revolution swept Pakistan we would probably just bolster India and use India as a proxy against Pakistan. The only support Pakistan would receive may come from the PRC, but I doubt the Chinese would support a destabilizing government in Pakistan. Besides, the U.S. has enough influence with the PRC to get them to back of their support for Pakistan if we found it in our national interest to do so.
North Korea, everyone hates these guys. Say there is a PRK invasion of the ROK and the U.S. gets involved. With our relations with the PRC it’s beyond a reasonable suspension of disbelief to think the Chinese would aid the PRK. It is much more likely that they would assist us in defeating the PRK and expanding the ROK to cover the whole peninsula. The thing is, the big 3 are all conservative powers which like things pretty much how they are going and no one wants to rock the boat.
To get a real T2K+9 scenario going we would need to see some kind of radical change in the governments of the U.S., Russia or PRC. Maybe a big right shift in Europe could do it, but I doubt that who the Danes elect will have an impact on WWIII.
If you think about it, we are living in the MERC 2000 world now, there are plenty of world hotspots but it’s more of a stretch than ever to figure a path to the 3rd World War. That’s a good thing (obviously), but it does make crafting a T2K+9 scenario difficult.