Hmm, I think I might have an idea on why Indonesia moves into PNG - nuclear fallout from the Pakistan/India war impacting the western reaches of Indonesia sometime in mid to late 1998...
With a little tweaking (probably due to the effect of the nukes themselves) the monsoon winds could just about carry radiation that far and leave both Thailand to the north, and Australia to the south largely untouched. Prevailing winds don't lend themselves naturally to it, but there have been some cyclones and other large storms which have bucked the general trend.
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If it moves, shoot it, if not push it, if it still doesn't move, use explosives.
Nothing happens in isolation - it's called "the butterfly effect"
Mors ante pudorem
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