Quote:
Originally Posted by RN7
Destroying the third largest city in Ireland (including Northern Ireland) would not exactly be a propaganda coup for the Soviet Union. Attacking neutral Ireland with nuclear weapons would automaticaly turn it towards NATO, as despite its rigid political neutrality on everything (except Britain) its a Western country and has a lot of close cultural and historical links with America. Ireland's relative geographical position on the west coast of Europe and its deap sea ports, anchorages and airports would be of great use to NATO in any operations in the Atlantic or even Arctic Oceans.
I'd say an air strike or a sabotage raid would serve a better purpose against the Bantry Bay oil terminal and Whitegate oil refinery than a nuclear strike. A well planned Spetznaz raid on these targets which are not well defended in the first place would completely knock them out. Unless any Soviets were captured it could easily be blamed on the British who with trouble brewing in Northern Ireland would be seen as the natural culprits. The IRA are also very left wing leaning and would probably even even help the Soviets in return for supplies of modern and heavy weapons. Its not hard to land arms along the south or west coast of Ireland by submarine as Ireland's naval and air patrol resources are tiny. The Germans tried it in the First World War.
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I think similar points tend to come up when discussing potential Soviet nuclear strikes on France and consensus on the board has tended to be that the strikes would happen anyway. By November 1997 I'm not sure propaganda would be a major concern, and the canon timeline would suggest that major Naval operations have wound down by then so not sure the Sovs would feel that the risk of bringing Ireland into the War as a belligerent would outweigh the benefits of destroying the oil facilities (particularly since one would imagine the only side likely to be benefit from those facilities would be the West. All in all, I think a nuclear strike on Bantry falls under the category of "Then major industrial and oil centres in neutral nations are targeted to prevent their use by the other side" (BYB V2.0, pg 12).
It could be argued that Cork dodged a nuclear bullet though, as it doesn't appear on any nuclear target lists for the British Isles (although there is a degree of vagueness about strikes on Ireland). To be fair, if the Cork refinery was still operational at the start of 1998, I think the nation the most likely to take action against it probably
would be the British - I think we would have the most to lose if Irish forces invading Northern Ireland had access to a full range of POL. In my opinion the probability of the UK nuking Cork is astronomically low (we've all got to live together after the War), so I think most likely option would be some sort of conventional attack, either by the RAF or Special Forces. It's an interesting idea...