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Originally Posted by Rainbow Six
I think similar points tend to come up when discussing potential Soviet nuclear strikes on France and consensus on the board has tended to be that the strikes would happen anyway. By November 1997 I'm not sure propaganda would be a major concern, and the canon timeline would suggest that major Naval operations have wound down by then so not sure the Sovs would feel that the risk of bringing Ireland into the War as a belligerent would outweigh the benefits of destroying the oil facilities (particularly since one would imagine the only side likely to be benefit from those facilities would be the West. All in all, I think a nuclear strike on Bantry falls under the category of "Then major industrial and oil centres in neutral nations are targeted to prevent their use by the other side" (BYB V2.0, pg 12).
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Bringing Ireland into the war as a belligerent is not going to make much difference as the Irish don't realy have much of an armed forces in the first place, other than as a source of well known belligerent recruits to other countries armies.
I don't see France been hit too hard if at all by nuclear weapons for many reasons but I don't want to start a heated discusion about that.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rainbow Six
It could be argued that Cork dodged a nuclear bullet though, as it doesn't appear on any nuclear target lists for the British Isles (although there is a degree of vagueness about strikes on Ireland). To be fair, if the Cork refinery was still operational at the start of 1998, I think the nation the most likely to take action against it probably would be the British - I think we would have the most to lose if Irish forces invading Northern Ireland had access to a full range of POL. In my opinion the probability of the UK nuking Cork is astronomically low (we've all got to live together after the War), so I think most likely option would be some sort of conventional attack, either by the RAF or Special Forces. It's an interesting idea...
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I think Shannon would be a more significant target as its logistical value is fairly significant. The Soviets could easily conventionally destroy the refinery and oil terminal without waisting a nuclear warhead on them. Shannon on the other hand would need a nuclear warhead to destroy it as the runway can be repaired if they hit with an airstrike and crater the runway.