[Mohoender]

1999
On March 12, Romania and Ukraine join NATO and, two weeks later, the defence organization launches air strikes against the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, attacking a sovereign state for the first time in its history. The proclaimed goal of the NATO operation is summed up by its spokesman as "Serbs out, peacekeepers in, refugees back". This action doesn’t have the backing of the UN as both China and Russia keep opposing it at the Security Council. In addition, People in some circles are fearful of a Warsaw Pact direct intervention on behalf of Yugoslavia. By April, however, it has become obvious that Warsaw Pact 2 and China do not plan such path of action.
China, also not militarily involved, grants technical support to Yugoslavia and helps Belgrade in his effort to lower the effect of NATO bombings. In addition, since the beginning of the attack, more and more military supplies are shipped through Warsaw Pact members to Belgrade, allowing for a higher level of readiness among Serbian forces: lost fighters are replaced, more modern anti-air units are deployed and, consequently, NATO losses increase slightly. The Serbian resistance is, by many ways outstanding but the situation proves increasingly difficult when NATO refocuses its attack on Serbian ground units.
Nevertheless, the situation evolves again, on May 7, after NATO bombing of the People's Republic of China embassy in Belgrade, triggering the Second Sino-Western Crisis. Three PRC citizens are killed, the Chinese are outraged and popular demonstrations take place in front of U.S. embassy in Beijing and U.S. consulates in other Chinese cities. Two days later, China asks for UN condemnation of NATO but, despite wide supports, this is vetoed by France, UK and US. Then, several members among Warsaw Pact 2 are becoming increasingly worried and, on May 15, volunteer units are mobilized to be sent in Serbia. At the same moment, a wave of demonstrations in western Poland by ethnic Germans supporting NATO intervention is violently suppressed by riot police, resulting in several deaths and numerous injuries. Germany protests and moves several divisions closer to the border.
Galvanized the Serbian will to continue the fight is reinforced and large demonstrations are held in Belgrade in support of the government. As a result, on June 12, the Serbian authorities reject a peace proposal and it becomes obvious that this war will not be ended without a ground offensive. Then, as this slowly starts to be discussed among NATO members, another wave of demonstration in western Poland is again violently suppressed. This time, small groups appear to be equipped with military small arms and Poland claims that the German army is behind this. Berlin denies any involvement with rioters but even more German military units move closer to the border to step up security.

The air offensive continues in the Balkans but loses intensity when evidences of UçK exactions toward the Serb population are released. Despite growing opposition from its citizens, NATO accelerates its work on a ground offensive but remains unable to launch it. Talks are taking place with Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina and Croatia to allow NATO troops on their respective soils and in early July they results in an agreement from Bosnia-Herzegovina and Croatia in exchange for membership. Then, the turns of event changes again in mid-July as several border incidents occur between units of the Polish and German armies. Finally, on July 27 elements of the German III Corps cross the frontier in retaliation for what they described as a "full-scale attack" by the Polish 4th Mechanized Division. Within two days Poland and Germany are officially at war.
Despite an official backing of its army, the German government is worried as many in the Bundestag realize that they are far from adequately prepared for a long conflict. The Bundeswehr is an impressive tool but it just finished a period of very rapid growth and rebuilding, many of its units being equipped with tanks and vehicles which have sat idle in warehouses for four or five years. In addition, many fear that the attack will result in a full involvement of the Warsaw Pact. However, Poland doesn’t call for the other member’s help and it seems that the conflict could remain local; the international community feels some relief. By September, the only non-polish units involved are three Russian divisions and several squadrons of the frontal aviation stationed in Poland as part of the Warsaw Pact 2 joint command. The poles are fighting surprisingly well but they are outnumbered by the Germans and the Bundeswehr slowly progress in Polish territory, taking Poznan and Wroclaw in early December.
China is facing unrest in the Xinjiang province after the arrest of several Muslim Ouïghours, two of them being executed on January 28. Following this, several demonstrations are taking place in the regional capital of Urümqi and in several other cities but the PLA quickly move in and the repression is bloody. By early June, the international community account for 300 people killed and at least 5000 arrested. Nevertheless, Warsaw Pact members call for the respect of Chinese sovereignty while Burma and North Korea even express their support. On May 8, Rebiya Kadeer is arrested at Urümqi under the charge of “releasing state’s secret informations”. Following her arrest, her husband, Sidik Hadji Rouzi, is received at the White House while Canada, EU and the US grant him support and push for the formation of the “East Turkestan Government in Exile”. This triggers the Third Sino-Western crisis and, this time, Beijing had enough. Western assets in China are confiscated while western citizens are expelled. In addition, the Chinese government puts an embargo on all exports toward the Western world and, by years end, the consequences are serious. The Chinese government has passed several trade agreements with countries in South America and in Eastern Europe while it turns toward the domestic market but Chinese production has to be reduced by 70%. Millions of Chinese are leaving the cities to the countryside again but resentment is turned toward the West and the PLA soon experiences a fair increase in the number of volunteers wishing to enlist. In addition, the collaboration between China and Russia goes one step further when one of the Kiev-class carriers is transferred to China and renamed Mao Zedong. It is equipped with brand new Yak-141 and part of the crew remains Russian while Chinese seamen and pilots undergo tough and rapid training.
The Western World experiences a terrible economic crisis. With the invasion of Poland, Russia has suspended oil and gas exportations and energy prices are quickly going up. The Chinese embargo results in supply shortages and several goods are increasingly hard to find while inflation rises everywhere. By years end, civilian industrial production is pushed to its maximum, plants are being built and expended in other parts of the world (especially Mexico and Northern Africa) but it is widely understood that the situation will not improve before several months.
In South America, Hugo Chavez calls for a “Pan-Latin American Conference”. It is attended by all Latin American countries plus Cuba with the exception of Brazil, Columbia and Panama. This conference addresses several economical and military issues but doesn’t come up with much outside of the formation of the “Social Union of Latin America” composed by Bolivia, Cuba, Ecuador, Nicaragua and Venezuela. In the meantime, the British forces in Belize are brought up to full strength while US increases its military presence in Honduras and Panama.

2000
Fighting are still taking place in Poland where little gains have been made by both sides. This is especially true because of the tempest “Lothar” that hit Denmark, France, Germany and Switzerland right after Christmas 1999, forcing the German government to put the offensive on hold. However, things are back to normal by mid-February and the offensive is resumed. Still outnumbered, the Poles are showing some signs of exhaustion and the German progression is slowly gaining in speed. However, on March 2, a lost German unit crosses the Czech border near Ostrava and takes a Czech border platoon for a Polish unit. Fighting are short and the Czech are all killed. On the next day, a Czech investigation team find out that three of the border troops had been executed and, on March 5, Prague joins the war soon followed by Bratislava. Moscow answering the call for help issued by the Czech government sends more units and by the end of the month the Bundeswehr is in serious trouble. In addition, reinforced by the Czech, by the Slovaks and by fresh units of the Russian Frontal Aviation the Pact’s air force in the area is now qualitatively and quantitatively a match for the Luftwaffe. The Warsaw Pact forces finally crack the line of German reservists holding the southern flank and cuts north into Germany itself, closing on Berlin. As soon as they get to Germany, a fairly large number of former East German soldiers join with the Russian and form the “Karl Marx Korps”. Heady with victory, claiming that they get support from the East German, the Warsaw Pact leadership announces their intention to occupy and repartition Germany as a guarantee against any type of future aggression.

Claiming that their actions were justified by the military provocations of Poland and that they now face dismemberment as a state, Germany turns to its NATO partners for assistance. While the political leadership of the European members of NATO debate the prudence of intervention, the US Army crosses the frontier. Within a week, Denmark, Luxemburg and Padania demand that U.S. troops withdraw to their start line and (when these demands have no effect) withdraw from NATO in protest. British, Canadian, Dutch and Ukrainian forces cross the border, however, while troops from the other members remain in place, still partners in NATO but not yet party to war. On the Warsaw Pact’s side, Hungary refuses to join and declares neutrality allowing supplies to be sent through its territory, nevertheless.
In the Balkans, fighting are continuing and the NATO offensive is to be started in summer, NATO high command planning on a multiple front offensive: A small US corps (including Bosnian, Croatian, French and Italian units from the Napoli Republic) is to attack from the West, Greece is to launch its own offensive from the South while Romania would attack in the East. This change when Albania declares neutrality and mobilizes troops, the only option remaining to the Greek units being to cross through Macedonia. However, when the UçK launches a number of attacks on Macedonia, the Macedonian ambassador’s demands for US assistance are turned down and their government forbid the crossing of their territory. Nevertheless, the attack is launched in early June and Greek units enter Macedonia. Both Macedonia and Serbia are offered membership in Warsaw Pact 2 and accept. On the next day, Bulgaria enters the war while Moscow increases its military pressure on Ukraine as Romania now appears to be their final goal.
Fighting continue to build up in Europe all over summer but the result remain indecisive until late fall when Russian troops, attacking in the far north, make a bid for quick victory in northern Norway. As a result, NATO members which had remained outside of the conflict enter the war and the excellent Arctic-equipped divisions spearheading the Russian attack are unable to break through to the paratroopers and marines landed in NATO's rear areas. As crack British commandoes, French Foreign Legion and U.S. Marines join the battle, the front line moves east again toward the Soviet naval facilities on the Kola Peninsula, and several elite Soviet paratroopers and marines are isolated and destroyed. Soon, NATO troops are pushing toward Murmansk and are only stopped 60 miles away from the city by massive counter-attacks conducted with Russian’s third line troops.
At sea, the Soviet Red Banner Northern Fleet sorties and attempts to break through the Greenland-Iceland-United Kingdom Gap into the north Atlantic. For three weeks the opposing fleets hammer each other, and the Russian fleet performs well to western military specialist amazement. The Russians supports their fleet with bombers that prove capable of swarming two U.S. aircraft carriers with a large number of missiles. One of the carrier sink when its magazine explodes while the other is put ashore on the Norwegian coast. The Russians also use much of their submarine fleet (including Delta-class SSBN) in an offensive role and they are responsible for the loss of several NATO vessels, including HMS Illustrious and Foch. At last, receiving reinforcements, the western fleets come out on top, badly bloodied but victorious. Seventy percent of the Russian northern fleet tonnage rests on the bottom of the Norwegian and North seas (Including aircraft carrier Ulianovsk) but several major units such as the Kuznetsov and the battlecruiser Piotr Velikiy rally Murmansk. They continue to represent a serious threat to NATO control over the Atlantic. Moreover, most Typhoon-class SSBN and the Yuriy Dolgorukiy (sole Borey-class SSBN) as well as scattered commerce raiders break out and by year's end raiders are wreaking havoc on NATO convoys.
In the Baltic Sea, while most NATO vessels are fighting off the coast of Norway, various raids are launched against the depleted German harbours. These attacks are conducted using littoral warfare ships and commandoes brought by sea and by air, using fast assault boats, helicopters, and hovercrafts. Most attacks are highly successful and many facilities are badly damaged.
Far from the European theatre, a war erupts in the Caucasus when the Chechens rises and launch an offensive to overthrow the Russian rule in the region. Backed by the Georgian and the Armenian governments, the Chechens are well organized and their attacks are often successful. To everyone surprise, Grozny is quickly taken while Russian units are withdrawing, leaving a fair amount of equipments behind.

In the Middle East, Israel, despite previous promises, doesn’t withdraw from Lebanon. After the assassination of Colonel Aql Hashem (commander of the SLA western brigade), advocating the change in world situation, Tsahal even send more units to the area. Soon, Hezbollah increases its attacks and toward the end of the year, rockets are hitting northern Israel daily.
In July, the Sendaro Luminoso (Shining Path) guerrillas, much like the Chechens, takes advantage of international chaos to make a bid for control of Peru. They do not succeed but they do succeed in wresting about half of the country from central control. They immediately receive support from countries in the region (Cuba, Ecuador, Nicaragua and Venezuela) while, before new years eve, several South and Central American countries experience varying degrees of political instability. Drug cartels also become increasingly active and put more weight on legal authorities.
In other third world countries, food riots appear and insurgent movements continue to grow in strength, putting a heavy weight on governments. In early fall, a nasty civil war erupts in Nigeria, involving both religious and ethnic issues, and the country’s oil exportation almost come to a stop (oil shortage worsen again). In Central Africa, northern Cameroon and south-western Myanmar, riots turn to Ethnic wars. In South Africa, the bitter civil war continues but, from the beginning of the year, the Western world, in exchange for an access to South African resources, declares that this is strictly an internal problem and put an end to all sanctions.
In the U.S., the presidential elections are most unusual as both Democrats and Republicans support the president in Office. In the outcome, opposed only by a dozen petty candidates, Forbes is re-elected with over 80% of the votes. In the meantime, the heavy losses endured by the navy truly chocked the population and, just after the votes, the secretary of defence is arrested on charge of treason while an unknown Admiral becomes the new Secretary of Defence. In addition, Pat Buchanan resigns as vice-president and Donald Rumsfeld replaces him.

2001
Faced with stalemate in the Far North and a continuing revolt in Chechnya, Russia needs more troops. Most category B readiness divisions are mobilized and sent to the front by mid-year, and almost all of the remaining category A divisions from the Far East frontier garrisons are committed. Many of the low readiness category C divisions are upgraded to category B or mobilized, and for the first time in 50 years the mobilization-only divisions begin training. This is achieved through tremendous efforts from the populations and with help from the Chinese which are sending more and more supplies.
In the Caucasus, the Russian are receiving an increasing number of fresh troops and, by early spring, they launch an attack toward the Chechens but also toward Armenia and Georgia. This offensive is bloody and many reports point out Russian cruelties. Whatever, this meet with a tremendous success and most resistance is silenced within three weeks. In order to elude capture NATO advisors flee through Turkish Kurdistan but they are intercepted by the Turkish army and taken into custody. The Turkish government claims that this is a provocation and, this time, closes the Bosphorus to all NATO shipping, effectively isolating Romania and Ukraine.
Following this, Romanian and Ukrainian commitment to the Balkan front decreases and the Greeks start to blame Turkey for their army’s lack of success. Anti-Turk demonstrations are held all over the country and in Cyprus. Finally, the Cypriot national guard fires at Turkish units and Ankara reacts by sending reinforcements while Greece diverts a number of combat aircrafts to support the island national guard. As fighting increase, Turkey declares war on Greece, attacking in Cyprus and launching an offensive in Thrace and East Macedonia. The Turks are quickly progressing toward Thessaloniki and several Greek units are taken out of the Bulgarian front to face this new threat. At last, Padania concludes a defence pact with Turkey. While Padania is not obligated by the pact to enter the Greco-Turkish war, Padania declares the war to be a regional conflict unrelated to the more general war raging over Europe, promising to intervene on Turkey’s side if NATO tries to tip the balance in Greece’s favour. Within a week, Turkey declares a naval blockade against Greece and warns world’s shipping that the Aegean is now considered a war zone.


In Romania, when the police shots and kill a man crossing the border with Hungary, the Hungarian government suspends diplomatic relations. The Romanians claim he was a smuggler, bringing arms to antigovernment forces. Three days later, a Romanian railway station in Cluj is blown up and the Romanians conduct mass arrests of Magyars throughout Romania. However, police sweeps are met with armed resistance and, within a week, a secessionist Magyar government declares independence from Romania. As what little remains of Romanian troops move north to crush the rebellion, the Hungarian government protests, is ignored, and then declares war.
This conflict remains local, however, and a cease fire is signed within two weeks, Romanian troops withdraw and Hungarian units enter the secessionist region as peacekeepers. While this is settled, the front in Romania and Ukraine stabilizes and enters a period of attritional warfare. Russian mobilization-only divisions, largely leg mobile and stiffened with a sprinkling of obsolete tanks and armoured personnel carriers, enter the lines. Although the Romanians and Ukrainians prove better soldiers than the over-aged and ill trained Russian recruits, the manpower difference begins to be felt while both countries are experiencing tremendous supply problems. Finally, with the Warsaw Pact dominating the air and the water all around the Black Sea, the best Russian troops open a corridor dividing Ukraine in two and, by May, they have managed to control a good portion of Southern Ukraine while advanced armoured elements occupy most of Moldavia and progress toward Bucharest and Ploesti.
In the meantime, as Turkey pressure on the Greek left flank in Thrace builds, it becomes clear that, without aid, the Greek Army will have to fall back or be defeated. On June 27th, a NATO convoy, accompanied by a strong covering force, attempts the run to the Greek port of Thessaloniki with badly needed ammunition and equipment. Fleet elements of the Padanian and Turkish Navy intercept the convoy and, in a confused night action off Thessaloniki, inflict substantial losses and escape virtually unharmed. Two days later, NATO retaliates with air strikes on Padanian and Turks naval bases. On July 1st, Turkey declares war against NATO while Padania, in compliance with its treaty obligations, follow suit on the 2nd. Then, Padanian airmobile, alpine, and armoured units cross the mountain passes into Tyrolia where scattered elements of the Austrian Army resist briefly before being overwhelmed. By mid-month, Padanian mechanized forces are debouching into southern Germany and advanced elements are attacking German territorial troops in the suburbs of Munich. In the meantime, other units are slowly pushing toward Zagreb while the Napoli Republic is already reduced to Sicily. For a time, the Padanian armies enjoy tremendous success as most of their opponents are already fully engaged elsewhere. In addition, they have intact peacetime stockpiles to draw on but, as time goes by, they begin feeling the logistical pinch.
As a matter of fact, on the first day of the New Year, the NATO heads of state have declared their support for a Polish government in exile, headed by a committee of Polish émigrés. While the news is greeted with scattered worker uprisings in Poland, the majority of the Polish Army remains loyal to the central government, and open resistance is soon crushed. An underground movement begins forming, however, and by spring small guerrilla bands, leavened by Polish Army deserters, begin to harass Warsaw Pact supply convoys and installations.
Meanwhile, in an attempt to restore the situation in Germany, Warsaw Pact troops return to the offensive in southern Germany but do not have the strength to make any significant gains. With the coming of spring, the NATO offensive gains momentum and in April the first German troops cross the frontier into Poland. By June 17th, Warsaw is surrounded, and Polish army units and the citizens of the city prepare for a siege.
By late spring, NATO’s Atlantic fleet has hunted down the last of the Soviet commerce raiders. Attack carriers and missile cruisers move again to northern waters in order to face the continuous threat of the surviving Russian capital units. The NATO drive in the north has been pushed back in and bogged down on the banks of the Tana River, but the Northern Front commander plans on a bold move to destroy the Russian naval and ground power there. Ground units are to attempt a rapid outflanking move through northern Finland while NATO Atlantic Fleet would close in on Murmansk and Severomorsk, subjecting the Soviet fleet anchorages and air bases to massive bombardments.

On June 7th the ground offensive is launched and the fleet closes in on the Kola Peninsula shortly thereafter. Finland had been expected to offer token resistance to the violation of its territory; instead the Finnish Army fights tenaciously, forcing the flanking move to abort. At sea the plan fares even worse, as coastal missile boats and the remnants of Northern Fleet supported by what was left of the shore-based naval aviation cripple the NATO fleet. By mid June, NATO losses are tremendous and, at that moment, two major naval fleet in the world have been shattered.
With the coming of the fall season, as NATO advanced elements are closing up on the Polish-Russian frontier while continuing the siege of Pact-held Warsaw, it becomes obvious to the Russian central command that the still powering up industry of the western countries will soon tip the balance in favour of NATO. Despite the stalemate in the Balkan and in the Arctic and continuing successes in Ukraine, Moscow will certainly have to commit even more troops to the war effort. If victory is not coming quickly, it may even have to draw again on mobilization-only divisions. Then, with Russian industries already working at their best and more equipments still being needed, a new call is made on China for more fresh supplies. Beijing responds favourably and Chinese-made weapons are sent in much larger quantities through the Tran Siberian.