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Originally Posted by Rainbow Six
Related to Raellus' serious questions for Ursus and BT, what about the possibility that the NVA Generals stage an outright coup, seize power, declare themselves the legitimate Government of the DDR and then "invite" West German forces into East Germany to assist the NVA in maintaining law and order?
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Less than nil. Generals are high-ranking party-members and these kinds of actions need long-term planning and deep conspiracies. A big chunk of Stasi was about not letting this stuff happen. If it's only generals and only of the NVA, they get taken out before they can stage the coup. If the Stasi is in on it, the KGB will know and Moscow will resolve the situation more forcefully.
Any coup in the GDR needs Moscow's blessing. And if Moscow is in on it, it's not a coup, it's the former leadership retiring "after a long life dedicated to the victory of the socialist way of life". Could that go wrong? Possible, but not likely. But let's assume a wors-case scenario:
Amidst peaceful protests against the ruling governement (like in 1989), members of the security apparatus of the GDR try to stage a similar coup as it historically happened in 1991 in the USSR. They ask for Moscow's blessing, citing concerns over the softness of the current leadership and it being possibly compromised by the West. Moscow green-lights the regime change and it goes down. Bloody. Peaceful protesters get in harms way, a couple of NVA tanks shoot at each other and at the end of the night, there is one clear winner.
A) The winner is the new government. This is basically a lot like 1968 in the ČSSR. Publically, NATO wouldn't twitch a finger, for fear of starting a war. The diplomatic wires will burn hot however.
B) The original ruling government prevails and now know that Moscow wants them gone. How to react to that? They cannot turn to the West for help, but have visibly fallen out of grace with Moscow. So, they can either make amends, shoot more protestors and try to get back into good graces with Moscow. Or they amp up the rhetoric, tell the world the current leadership in Moscow is "irresponsible" and "warmongering". Of course that's a risky move, but they don't have a place to go, so they go on the (political) offensive.
I still don't see NATO intervene, but the situation might be bad enough for refugees to come in the tens of thousands. Germany would use the Bundeswehr to handle that kind of border situation. If Soviet or hardliner NVA troops now act irresponsible, a border skirmish might happen. In a tense situation, where the leadership of GDR and USSR mistrust each other, an incident involving the Bundeswehr might evolve into something bigger. And in that case, maybe the East German NVA would actually stay put, since their SED masters tell them to. So its just Soviet troops shooting Bundeswehr soldiers protecting refugees from the GDR. If the Soviets don't apologize really fast, that could spiral out of control.