[RN7]

Originally Posted by Matt Wiser

RN7: Yes, they would, but TTL the USN, RN, RAN, RNZN, and RCN (they shed their Trudeau-era Maritime Command name pretty fast), have three oceans' worth to cover, and only one ocean of fleet, even with everyone pulling their share of the load, and the JMSDF operating in a "Short of War" posture in the Pacific helping out.

Once Iceland is liberated (June '87), a Marine raid on Kola (July '87) that disrupts Soviet shipping, the tide begins to turn at sea, but it's not until the late '88-early '89 time frame that the pinch really begins to hurt the Soviet-bloc forces in Texas. Once that happens, it's a matter of time, and by the time of the Brownsville story (Late Sep-early Oct '89), the Soviets in Texas and Mexico are in deep. The Northern Theater isn't in any better shape: the shipping lanes from Soviet Far East ports to Alaska are frequently attacked by USN subs and carrier aircraft, and the Soviets are lucky that only half of what's shipped gets through. Still, by the end of the war (14 Oct 89), that 60-division force in Alaska and Canada has only about 15-20 divisions that are really combat effective-that is, capable of both offensive and defensive combat operations; the rest are only capable of defensive operations due to the shortages of fuel, ammo, and spares.

Iceland may have fallen to the Soviets but the waters around it and across the North Atlantic are going to be heavily dominated by US/UK submarines. They are the two best submarines fleets in the world and are better trained than the Soviets, and their latest boats are also better than anything what the Soviet have. About this time the US Navy had about 90 tactical submarines excluding boomers, and all of them are nuclear. The UK also had 28 tactical submarines with two thirds of them nuclear. The North Atlantic is going to be the dominant theatre for naval operations in your scenario and half of that submarines fleet is going to be in the Atlantic. That's about 60 submarines and probably the best ones that both the US and Britain have and also throw in the Canadians. Any Soviet convoy heading across to North America would have to have been guarded by major Soviet surface forces and submarines, and even then the casualty rates would be catastrophic.