[Raellus]

@Southernap: Thanks for the info, insight, and resources.

Based on the preponderance of the evidence, it looks like Med Cruise got it right.

I never envisioned a NATO foray into the Black Sea, nor a Red Fleet sortie out of it. In either case, I think the interloper would get their hat handed to them or, even if they succeeded, strategically, it wouldn't be worth the cost in losses.

I think it's most plausible that Turkey and the Soviets spar a bit at sea after Turkey's invasion of Bulgarian Thrace on Christmas Day, 1996, resulting in limited naval engagements in which the Soviets come out on top.

The Greeks declare war on Turkey in January '97. As you pointed out, the pre-war Turkish navy was more oriented towards and focused on the Med. That's where their focus would return, and remain, after fighting breaks out on Cyprus.

I think the NATO of T2k would essentially cede the Black Sea to the WTO and focus on regaining control of the Med (from the Italian and Greek navies).