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Old 03-08-2023, 12:36 PM
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Raellus Raellus is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Heffe View Post
BakhmutYou're right that no one beyond arguably Ukrainian high command and NATO/US military advisors have any idea what's really going on here.
What concerns me is that numerous reports seem to indicate that the US is advising Ukraine to pull out of the city but the Ukrainians continue to insist that they can and will hold it. Some reports indicate an orderly withdrawal is underway; others that reinforcements are still being sent into the city. What's really going on there?

The optimist in me wants to believe that the Ukrainians are setting the Russians up for something like you described (a-la 1942's Operation Uranus v the German 6th Army salient at Stalingrad). The pessimist in me worries that Ukrainian leadership is stubbornly wasting troops for primarily symbolic reasons.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Heffe View Post
I did read recently (I forget where) that estimates are putting Russian losses in the area at 1:5-7 in favor of Ukraine, and that a going theory was that Ukraine is simply willing to trade favorably against Russian forces to bleed Russia down a bit until western assets arrive in theater. I have no idea whether that casualty estimate is accurate or not, and I certainly won't believe Ukrainian or Russian estimates on the matter, but if true it might help explain the thought processes involved.
I saw a figure today of 1:3. At that rate, Ukraine will run out of troops before Russia does.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Heffe View Post
So far in the war, Ukraine's been very effective in their decision making, while Russia has been flailing all over the place, so that gives me some hope that Bakhmut is no exception and that there's some kind of plan.
You're right, and I'm trying to take reassurance from that fact, but I too worry that maybe Ukraine is finally making a really bad call in Bakhmut.

To anyone who hasn't read it yet, I highly recommend this piece from the New Yorker about the war to date and likely long-term outcomes.

https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-n...M0BhoDZFyvnOHI

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