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Old 01-13-2023, 07:23 AM
castlebravo92 castlebravo92 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chico20854 View Post
It probably is!!!
FWIW, using the GDW Hit List, I have 8 million dead*, 14 million injured for 123 targets in the United States for just blast and thermal effects (not fallout - still working on generating a model for that; DTRA.mil hasn't given me access to HPAC yet so I'm working on reverse engineering the fallout generation from HotSpot and incorporating that with historical meteorology data to generate something that looks a little more realistic than the WSEG-10 smear fallout model).

So, that's my reasoning for 10 million global deaths from 1200 nuclear weapons seeming low by an order of magnitude (especially with China getting plastered).

Attaching the fatality curve I used to calculate deaths. It's a curve fit model generated from Hiroshima fatalities that in effect combines blast, thermal, and firestorm casualties. The net effect is that the curve shifts to the left more strongly than some other casualty models due to the basic assumption that most people seriously injured in the 4+ PSI zone would not be able to self-evacuate and would perish in the firestorm.

Note also, that this casualty model is less severe than some other models that have the hypothesis that even uninjured people would be unable to evacuate 5+ PSI areas before perishing in a firestorm.

And yes, this is probably way too nerdy.

* Edited to add - I didn't include the Windsor, ON attack in the initial calculations. Assuming a DGZ between the Chrysler and Ford plants for a 1 MT airburst, that adds another half million casualties (almost equally split between dead and injured) to the US tally in Detroit. Downtown and midtown Detroit would have been seriously damaged, but the Detroit Arsenal would have been about 6 km north of the end of the 1 PSI blast ring so would be completely undamaged and intact barring civil unrest and damage.
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Last edited by castlebravo92; 01-13-2023 at 08:17 AM.
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