20% is a number out of a hat. It may be reasonable, or it may not be reasonable. 20% of how many? What is the pre-war production rate? How do events in China affect the production rate? How many are produced after 12/96? These are all a bit unknown to settle on any figure without some thought, be that number 0%, 100%, or something in between.
We don't know how many divisions with LAV-75s in their TO&E as given in the US Army Vehicle Guide (v1) have a full complement of them in 1995. LAV-75 already in service can be upgraded to the 105mm standard without being fabricated from scratch. I don't know how long upgrading a single LAV-75 would take from the moment a particular vehicle was tapped for movement to the refit location to the time the vehicle returned. A more useful timeframe might be how long it takes from the moment an LAV-75 rolls in the door at its refit location to the time it rolls back out with a 105mm gun. At any rate, do we really have enough information to say 20%--or any other figure--with any authority?
I will say one thing in favor of the 20% assumption. It's not overly optimistic. Optimism kills.
Webstral
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