[pmulcahy11b]

Originally Posted by Heffe3737

EurAsia:
Due to political will in the US, the US government scales back and potentially drops out of NATO altogether, leaving the EU scrambling to rebuild their militaries. In it's bid to gain additional fuel reserves and more access to continental Europe, and in the absence of serious western opposition after the changes to NATO, Russia invades and annexes the remainder of the Ukraine. Lacking sufficient military strength yet, the EU talk a lot about taking action against Russia but no significant actions are taken outside of some minor sanctions. Russia takes this as a nod and moves in to secure Georgia as well, followed by a quick acceptance of Belarus back under Russian political control.

Meanwhile, sensing Russia's growing aggression with America's increasing isolationism, the EU prepares for the worst and begin stockpiling weapons. Facing increasing internal and financial pressure, Greece and Turkey pull out of NATO and quickly thereafter join the SCO. A hard Brexit happens with the UK, further straining the EU close to the breaking point.

I don't think the US will pull out of NATO unless Trump (damn guy!) wins the 2020 election. If this happens, there will definitely be a run-up to a general European War, starting in the Ukraine and then trying to take back Former Soviet Republics in Europe, and possibly an invasion of Poland. I think that there will be enough political pressure on Trump (especially if the Democrats win back the House) that Trump will commit at least aid and AWACS and tanker support, and perhaps armed aircraft and small amounts of troops.

I think that the remainder of NATO will, after a delay to scramble for weapons, come down hard on Russia, particularly the Polish, Romanians, and Czech and Slovak Republics. They've been itching for a fight with Russia over their invasion of the Ukraine, and only NATO leadership has been holding them back.

I think that NATO will lose Turkey, possibly as early as late this year. They been going over more to the Islamic sphere, and the Turkish people are increasingly alarmed by the growing defense budget in Turkey.

When Trump pulls out of NATO, however, the US's ability to form a coalition about anything will basically be gone. and if he doesn't stop this trade war soon, we could have a global depression (read up about the Harding and Hoover presidencies), and that will turn the world dynamic into a free-for-all.

Originally Posted by Heffe3737

In the Middle East, tensions escalate as Israel and Iran continue fighting a proxy war using terrorist factions. Syria and Yemen sign a mutual defense agreement with Iran. Israel calls upon the US for aid which is slow to come.

The Saudis have been quietly building up their National Guard -- they basically have the latest weapons they can get, have been increasing their defense budget by large leaps, and have been taking active roles in the fight in Yemen, as far as they can go without actually committing troops on the ground. (And the US has been using drones and special ops troops staging from Saudi territory into Yemen.) The Saudis have gone as far as artillery duels across the Yemeni border and the occasional air strike. And their opponent is -- Iran, who have been sending arms and advisors to Yemen. Yemen is basically a proxy was between Saudi and Iran, with US help on the Saudi side. And it could easily spread out into the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman, where the Iranians have the edge in the naval theater, If that happens, and particularly if the Strait of Hormuz gets constricted or closed, the US will have no choice to intervene, along with China. Fun times there...

Originally Posted by Heffe3737

In the far East, China continues to build in the South China Sea, prompting fiercer denunciation from the Philippines, and after China decides to use the same tactics elsewhere in international waters, the Philippines is joined by Japan and South Korea. Malaysia and Vietnam also join in condemning Chinese actions, but to a lesser extent. China continues providing relief and begins sending arms to North Korea. Pressure builds.

In my mind, this is the single most volatile world flashpoint. The Chinese are being almost imperialistic in their use of artificial islands, and their getting to the point where they basically control the South China Sea and beyond. The PLA has always been huge, and they are technologically almost on par with the US. The PLAAF is also growing, with a large number of advanced aircraft (though many analysts doubt that they have the advertised effectiveness). The PLAN is growing by leaps and bounds; by 2025 they will have 5-8 actual carriers (though by no means the equal of a Nimitz or Ford-Class carrier) and a growing number of nuclear attack submarines and guided missile destroyers. They have the ability to shoot down satellites and even platforms like the ISS. Their nuclear forces are easily capable of decimating the US, Russia, the Middle East, and most of NATO. In Europe, it will be a regional war; if China really bares its fangs, it will go hot and nuclear fast, and I think this is where World War 3 will start, if it starts.

Originally Posted by Heffe3737

North America
Relations between the US and Canada degrade somewhat, but the two countries continue to trade and communicate. The US political scene is in turmoil, with GOP and Dems fighting over competing ideologies. The GOP ideologies eventually win over when a bio weapon suddenly explodes over a major US city, and is sourced to a terrorist group with ties to Iran. This leads to the US adopting a near entirely isolationist stance similar to pre-WW2, though there is still a sizeble amount of unrest in the US's liberal coastal cities. Mexico, angry about the political machinations happening to the north and feeling used by the American government, elects a strong anti-American president.

I don't want to get into this; I have STRONG feelings about current US government and I'll get too political and inadvertently start a flame war. The thread will end up locked, and I think it's too important to be put off limits.

Originally Posted by Heffe3737

South America
Brazil's corruption reaches a crescendo and the economy collapses wholesale, leaving millions in poverty which cascades out to other countries on the continent. Similar events take place in Venezuela. Soon, most of South America is reeling from the influx of refugees from those beleaguered states. The cartels use this as an opportunity to gain more power and start setting up regional districts of their own, slowly pulling the populace away from any modicum of central government.

Australia
Somewhat of a bulwark in the South Pacific, the Aussies pick up somewhat where the US leaves off, and signs a mutual security agreement with Japan, the Philippines, South Korea, and Malaysia. They sense a storm is coming and begin preparations.

Africa
As American isolationism deepens, Chinese influence starts to encroach. Most of the continent is still fairly unstable, outside of a few outliers (Egypt, South America, and Morocco).

Most of this is essentially possible, and I'll admit I don't know enough about the geopolitics of these parts of the world to contribute much. (For now. I am studying.)

I have often talked on this board and others about a "bump in the road;" if we don't get over it, we'll either go to the edge, with essentially a non-nuclear World War 3, or we'll take it to oblivion. This "bump" will happen somewhere between 2025 and 2035. If we get over it, mankind has a bright future for at least the next 100 years. Just my opinion.