OT: Brexit

[RN7]

Anyone have any thoughts about the upcoming Brexit referendum?

If the UK votes yes then Britain will leave the European Union. This is a bit more significant than the recent Scottish Independence referendum as the entire EU could collapse if one of its major members votes to leave it. The Yes campaign seems to have taken a slight lead in the polls which will scare Cameron, Brussels and all the European stock markets.

I don't know if Britain is big enough to go it alone anymore and the implication is that it will loose its political and economic status in Europe if it leaves, but Norway and Switzerland seem to be doing quite well and there not EU members. The main issues seems to be EU interference in British sovereignty and laws, and the problem of immigration but there are other issues as well. Suppose Britain could just revert to its traditions of trading with the world outside Europe and concentrate on political links with the Commonwealth and North America which it has always been more comfortable doing.

[kato13]

My biggest interest in Brexit would be the potential continued use of English as the dominant language within the EU. Given English is the most popular second language in almost all EU countries (exceptions being Czech, The Baltic States and Luxembourg IIRC), I can see the dominance continuing. It would be odd though as only Ireland would have it as its primary language.

[RN7]

Originally Posted by kato13

My biggest interest in Brexit would be the potential continued use of English as the dominant language within the EU. Given English is the most popular second language in almost all EU countries (exceptions being Czech, The Baltic States and Luxembourg IIRC), I can see the dominance continuing. It would be odd though as only Ireland would have it as its primary language.

Most people will still want to learn English as a second language whether Britain is in the EU or not, as the importance of English in the world will remain.

[kato13]

Agreed, but I can see the French insisting that all documents start in French (Rather than English) before being translated into the 24 "Official" languages.

[RN7]

Originally Posted by kato13

Agreed, but I can see the French insisting that all documents start in French (Rather than English) before being translated into the 24 "Official" languages.

So could I but I think the Germans might object to that as there are more people who speak German in the EU and Europe than French.

[unkated]

Originally Posted by RN7

So could I but I think the Germans might object to that as there are more people who speak German in the EU and Europe than French.

"But German is such a brutal language" - Amadeus



Uncle Ted

[swaghauler]

Based on recent EU behaviors like the recent call to limit free speech due to criticism of EU policy, they may be better off on their own.

[CDAT]

Originally Posted by unkated

"But German is such a brutal language" - Amadeus



Uncle Ted

And yet I like to listen to it (I can not speak it), but french on the other hand is fingernails on the chalk board to me.

[Bullet Magnet]

Originally Posted by unkated

"But German is such a brutal language" - Amadeus



Uncle Ted

Really, I think ANY language can sound brutal, if it's being shouted at you by a uniformed man pointing a rifle at your face.

[simonmark6]

It' also the language of Goethe and Schiller who raised it to the sublime.

Frankly I don't give a monkey's about what languages the EU use first in its documents, I'm more worried about what the Brexit campaign is doing to the country even before we've had the vote. After that? I shudder to think.

[kato13]

Originally Posted by simonmark6

It' also the language of Goethe and Schiller who raised it to the sublime.

Frankly I don't give a monkey's about what languages the EU use first in its documents, I'm more worried about what the Brexit campaign is doing to the country even before we've had the vote. After that? I shudder to think.

My GF is a professional English/Korean translator so that particular detail has the greatest effect on me.

[RN7]

Originally Posted by kato13

My GF is a professional English/Korean translator so that particular detail has the greatest effect on me.

A lot of European countries use English rather than French as a second language, particularly the Germans, Dutch and the Nordic countries. English has also replaced Russian and German as the second language among the Eastern European countries. If Britain leaves the EU I don't see any of these countries switching over to French any time soon. And don't worry Kato the Koreans are not going to start using French as a second language either!

[simonmark6]

may be more work for translators: the Brits will produce their own stuff that the Europeans will need to translate and all the European documents (if they aren't already in English) will need to be translated in the UK so we know what's going on both sides of the channel.

[kato13]

Yep if the Brits go it alone there will be a ton of new official regulations that will be generated. So in short to medium term there will defiantly be a gain.

The availability of translators for non-Eu nations is another reason for the EU to keep things in English. French/Korean translators are probably only 1% as common as EN/KR ones.

There is a ton of logic to stick with English, but French passion for their language seems like it borders on the illogical sometimes.

I can see the French wanting to "punish" English speakers as for the first time they are discussing imposing a French language test requirement for UK expats living there if BREXIT passes. Hopefully such talk will last as long as the US calling french fries, "Freedom Fries".

[RN7]

Looks like Brexit is about to happen.

Scotland, Northern Ireland and Gibraltar voted to stay in the EU. Wales has voted to leave and the leave vote is well ahead in the key population bloc in England.

Pound Sterling is in free fall against Dollar, Cameron will have to resign and the EU and Euro could implode!

[kato13]

Given the currency trading markets are usually pretty good at predictions it seems to me that this result totally surprised people.

If brexit had failed the pound would not have risen 10% in 4 hours.

[RN7]

Good news for British exporters!

[Olefin]

Good to see that the scaremongers and the so called elite lost out big time - BREXIT is the best thing to happen to the UK in a long time. Course the Scots don't like it one bit at all - the Scottish leaders sounded like they wanted to pull out of the UK as soon as they could.

And loved seeing the absolute panic on the faces at CNN and MSNBC - what the people aren't listening to the elites? the polls were wrong? people are sick of bureaucrats?

Got to wonder if the US election just got a lot more interesting

[Raellus]

Originally Posted by Olefin

Good to see that the scaremongers and the so called elite lost out big time - BREXIT is the best thing to happen to the UK in a long time.

Uh, have you seen the markets? Do you understand what this is going to do to the British financial system? It's exactly scaremongering that won out here. Protectionism and xenophobia were the driving forces behind the pro-Brexit agenda.

Seriously, this is not good at all.

[Jason Weiser]

I dunno Rae, I think this is some short term panic. Economies, like water, tend (not always) to seek their own level. I think the short term losses on the various markets will be made good by next week, and as for the Pound? I would not be surprised if it settles somewhere between $1.40 and $1.50. Not as good as before, but survivable and it will do the British export market some favors.

Thing I am more worried about? How bad does the Rio Olympics wind up..everything that can go wrong in Brasil, short of a terror attack or natural disaster, has. I know they cannot call it off, but it's really become a international embarrassment for Brasil.

[RN7]

Originally Posted by Olefin

Course the Scots don't like it one bit at all - the Scottish leaders sounded like they wanted to pull out of the UK as soon as they could.

But if another referendum occurs it will be put to the Scottish people that England heavily subsidises Scotland, and that if Scotland wants to leave the UK and rejoin the EU then the benign subsidisation from England will be replaced by hard nosed German subsidisation.

[Rainbow Six]

Originally Posted by RN7

But if another referendum occurs it will be put to the Scottish people that England heavily subsidises Scotland, and that if Scotland wants to leave the UK and rejoin the EU then the benign subsidisation from England will be replaced by hard nosed German subsidisation.

Well, I think I'm the only person here who will have a vote when rather than if the next Independence referendum takes place and this time round I'd rather take my changes with Merkel's Germany than Farage's England.

[RN7]

Originally Posted by Rainbow Six

Well, I think I'm the only person here who will have a vote when rather than if the next Independence referendum takes place and this time round I'd rather take my changes with Merkel's Germany than Farage's England.

I don't think Nige will ever become PM, he couldn't even get elected as a MP. Maybe Boris Johnson!!

[Rainbow Six]

Originally Posted by RN7

I don't think Nige will ever become PM, he couldn't even get elected as a MP. Maybe Boris Johnson!!

I didn't really mean in that sense, it was more a comment on his beliefs.

[RN7]

Originally Posted by Rainbow Six

I didn't really mean in that sense, it was more a comment on his beliefs.

Have you heard the latest utterances from the SNP?

With Scotland having a structural deficit of £15 billion, a weak economy hovering close to recession, facing significant economic, legal and political questions about leaving the UK, and also facing the collapse in oil prices and high levels of public spending. Scotland would have to strike a deal with London about paying off its share of the UK’s £1.6 trillion debt and lose Scotland’s share of the UK rebate, find the cash needed for Scotland’s contribution to the EU as well as seeing a flight of British business south to England and losing huge defence contracts, and the EU members would expect Scotland to join the euro.

According to Salmond "There are a range of other options obviously, such as sterlingisation, an independent Scottish currency linked to the pound; an independent Scottish floating currency"

Sturgeon was careful to avoid giving any guarantee, however, that a second referendum would be held, stressing that the challenges of leaving the UK were complex and still unclear since the UK-EU negotiations had not yet begun.

Do they actually know what they are doing?

[Rainbow Six]

Nicola said that a second referendum was now 'highly likely'. My reference to when rather than if it took place was purely my personal opinion.

In one sense the SNP leadership know exactly what they are doing - they want to have a second referendum, but only when they think circumstances have changed sufficiently to allow them to win it. They cannot, under any circumstances, risk having a second referendum and losing it. They would have to wait decades before they could call for a third.

However in another sense matters are out of their hands, and that's where they don't know what they're doing. That's because they want to have a referendum when they think they have a chance of winning it, however they also want to have it before the UK formally leaves the EU, which is likely to be up to two years from when the Prime Minister invokes Article 15. Cameron has already said it should be the new PM who invokes Article 15, so because of these factors the timescale is uncertain (and could be further complicated if the other 27 member states attempt to 'fast track' the UK's exit.

Therefore the clock is already ticking on how they deal with the big ticket items, primarily convincing people that we can afford to be independent. Whether they will be able to do that or not remains to be seen, however that's far outwith the scope of this thread, or this board for that matter.

[Olefin]

Originally Posted by Raellus

Uh, have you seen the markets? Do you understand what this is going to do to the British financial system? It's exactly scaremongering that won out here. Protectionism and xenophobia were the driving forces behind the pro-Brexit agenda.

Seriously, this is not good at all.

Yes I have seen the markets - and sorry but the guys who run those markets were all for REMAIN - look at how high the pound went when they thought they were winning

The reality is that the only scare mongers right now are the ones shorting the British pound trying to desperately punish the British people for leaving the EU - because all they don't want is Britain on her own to succeed - and thus make other EU countries figure enough is enough

Elites don't like being told to go stuff it by the "common folk" - especially elites who have being buying into the EU Kool-Aid for too long - it wasn't protectionism - it was people being sick and tired of Brussels bureaucrats telling a country with a very long tradition of democratic government that they had to do what they said no matter what

Frankly I am betting that Obama and Hillary are looking at what just happened and realizing just how much trouble they may be in if the US feels the same way about them

[RN7]

Originally Posted by Rainbow Six

Cameron has already said it should be the new PM who invokes Article 15, so because of these factors the timescale is uncertain (and could be further complicated if the other 27 member states attempt to 'fast track' the UK's exit.

It could take up to a decade for the UK to completely unwrangle itself from the EU.

Originally Posted by Rainbow Six

Therefore the clock is already ticking on how they deal with the big ticket items, primarily convincing people that we can afford to be independent. Whether they will be able to do that or not remains to be seen, however that's far outwith the scope of this thread, or this board for that matter.

Scotland will have to think long and hard about what is really in its best interest.

Over here in Ireland Sinn Fein are also banging on about a referendum for a United Ireland as Northern Ireland also voted for remain. Imagine Gerry Adams as the president/prime minister of Ireland!!!

[Raellus]

Originally Posted by Olefin

Yes I have seen the markets - and sorry but the guys who run those markets were all for REMAIN - look at how high the pound went when they thought they were winning

So, the sudden and rapid drop of the Pound is deliberate currency manipulation by the anti-Brexiters? That's some tinfoil hat stuff right there.

Originally Posted by Olefin

Frankly I am betting that Obama and Hillary are looking at what just happened and realizing just how much trouble they may be in if the US feels the same way about them

Because we have national referendums here in the U.S.A.?

Or because the Brexit somehow increases the likelihood of Trump winning the presidential election? He's not one of the elite?

[Rainbow Six]

Originally Posted by RN7

It could take up to a decade for the UK to completely unwrangle itself from the EU.

I haven't seen anything authoritative that says more than two years from when Article 15 is invoked (give or take a couple of months). Granted, it may depend on the definition of 'unwrangle' - there could be issues to be addressed that could drag on after the formal exit process is completed.

Originally Posted by RN7

Scotland will have to think long and hard about what is really in its best interest.

I don't doubt it.

Originally Posted by RN7

Over here in Ireland Sinn Fein are also banging on about a referendum for a United Ireland as Northern Ireland also voted for remain. Imagine Gerry Adams as the president/prime minister of Ireland!!!

Yeah, the situation in NI is obviously a lot more complicated. I did see an item on the news less than an hour ago that there has been a rush of people from Northern Ireland applying for Republic passports. I suspect some people in the NI Assembly will be watching what happens in Edinburgh over the weeks and months that follow.