International Trade

[kato13]

While re-watching the 1978 History documentary series "Connections" (which I wholeheartedly recommend) I started thinking about the existence of international trade through the ages.

I started thinking what products are so easily produced and produced in such numbers that even the twilight war would not reduce production to a point where trade is not profitable.

Opium from Afghanistan was the first thing I though of. Quinine from Java also would be important as I am assuming malaria rates would be shooting up. Some narcotics and coffee from South America would also see international movement. Spices from Asia as always would be in demand.

I'd like to hear other opinions or other expected trade routes.

[Graebarde]

S ugar and Rum from the Carribean probably would be in production and trade. While the sugar would be 'raw' (brown) rather than white crystal. Coffee would also probably bring better prices than coke and in more general demand. As recovery progresses, textiles, such as linen, hemp, cotton, and wool will also trade again. It may be raw material or cloth, depending on where it comes from. This would only occur after food production stabalizes. SALT is also another 'ancient' commodity not found everywhere but needed.

Just some rambling ideas.

Grae

[Mohoender]

Vegetable oils could be another choice. Olive oil from southern europe, Palm oil from Africa, other type of vegetable oil from pretty much everywhere...

These are useful for almost everything, and from place to place, it will be produced in fair quantities.

[Targan]

Australia has always produced vastly more grain than it needs for domestic consumption. I guess alot of the surplus during the Twilight War would be used to distill alcohol but Australia also has the advantage of having far more natural gas available than it needs for domestic consumption and we have a thriving (RL) market in converting cars to LPG so most petrol vehicles here would be converted to gas before 2000 I would think. So Australia would most likely be a bread basket for its allies during the war. The only problem would be that California is a terrible mess by 2000 and it would be dangerous for shipping to use the Panama Canal so maybe Australian grain might be traded to Seattle or possibly even the RDF in the Middle East?

[Legbreaker]

Australia also is the worlds most efficient sugar cane grower. Sugar, as we know, makes great raw material for alcohol.

The following is something I knocked up a while back. It's not quite in line with this thread, but near enough:


Supply and demand in a post nuclear world

For the frontline soldier, the first two things they'll start to miss are Tobacco and Coffee. Now, any decent military will have a pretty nice supply of Ye Olde Java, but cigarettes will become more scarce, since smokers will probably be smoking MORE (Nuclear apocalypse is a pretty stressful thing), while non-smokers might just start. Civilians will want both of those, along with the stuff already mentioned, (salt, pepper, soap, etc.) I can see the guy who was driving a truck for Shoprite when the faeces hit the fan doing quite well on the growing black market.

Something that needs to be kept in mind is that globally, the war and associated diseases, famine and social unrest have claimed over 50% of the worlds population - that's in the order of about 3 BILLION people. Areas such as Silesia in south-western Poland had been hit even harder. From a pre-war population of 3 million, there are barely 100,000 by mid 2000. That's 29 out of every 30 people dead (though probably not buried).

So what does this mean for the luxury items such as soap, tobacco and so on? Well for a start the immediately available stocks of said items have a much lower demand. This is of course more than offset by the almost total lack of a distribution network. While many areas have a serious shortage, other areas (production regions or warehousing facilities) might just have more than anyone could dream of. The continued existence of these stockpiles could be put down to all the workers in the area having succumbed to the various diseases, moved away to a better area (take the mass migration in the US during 2001 due to the drought), or perhaps able bodied persons being drafted, enslaved or otherwise forcibly removed.

As time goes past of course, trade routes would begin to reopen as enterprising individuals and groups stumble upon these stockpiles or re-establish communications using animal drawn caravans and the odd alcohol powered vehicle. Items that originated in far-flung parts of the globe would remain in extremely short supply (spices from the orient in western Europe for example) with the occasional injection into the market from the aforementioned stocks. Small amounts would also be scavenged from the dead (cigarettes, soap, etc), abandoned houses and shops. Most of this "ready supply" would be quickly exhausted as people caught on to the benefits gained with looting.

Salt and sugar aren't too hard to produce locally. If close to the sea, drying pans filled with sea water can provide copious amounts within the space of a few weeks (much longer in colder climates or winter). Salt mines are also another option and would once more become profitable.

Sugar can be produced from cane (in tropical regions) or sugarbeet in colder latitudes. Other than that, there are plenty of sweet substitutes, honey being a prime example.

[Olefin]

one thing to look at for International trade would be to see what countries are still functional enough to be able to trade at all

Looking at the V1 timeline (and including things like what Frank Frey had in his Soviet Vehicle Guide about the Japanese) you would probably have the following still able to trade:

South Africa
several of the South American nations
the Pacific island nations like Fiji, Tonga, Vanatu, etc..
Japan
Thailand
Malaysia
Singapore
Burma
France
Australia
New Zealand
Cuba and several of the Caribbean nations

For many of them the biggest issue would be the distances involved - i.e. you are either looking at ships fueled by coal or sail and coaling stations by 2000 are few and far between. So even if you had things to trade for many of them, you might not be visited by ships more than a few times per year and the amount of cargo they could trade could be negligible compared to what freighters powered by oil could carry.

Australia does have a few coal powered freighters that were used on the bauxite route that were large ships - but unless they were modified to carry a lot more coal they had a limited range that doesnt allow for much in the way of long range travel.