Air Support c.2000

[Raellus]

Recently, a Cold War-era Ukrainian Yak-52 turboprop trainer variant made headlines by dogfighting with a Russian UAV. It, or sister airframe, has apparently racked up a few aerial victories as evidenced by these kill markings:

https://www.twz.com/air/yak-52-kill-...ines-drone-war

Why is this relevant to T2k? Aircraft such as the Yak-52 would be poised to make a comeback in the late stages of the Twilight War.

As WWIII grinds on, in addition to losses from battlefield attrition, SAMs would be expended (and not replaced) and most surviving AAA would be repurposed for direct fire infantry support. As a result, the FEB would become gradually less and less deadly for aircraft. Also, under the cantonment system, there wouldn't be a solid, continuous FEB. Surviving air defenses would be concentrated around major cantonments and strategic assets, leaving great gaps in AA coverage.

At the same, the quantity of operational modern combat aircraft would also diminish due to attrition, and fuel and spare parts shortages. There would be very few, if any, fighter, attack, and/or strike jets available to take advantage of much thinner land-based anti-aircraft coverage.

Under those late war circumstances, aircraft like the Yak-52 would assume a new and much greater utility. The Yak-52, for example, was plentiful (in common use across the Warsaw Pact), simple (using pneumatically actuated controls instead of hydraulics), sturdy, and wouldn't need jet fuel. It could perform reconnaissance, surveillance, and light attack roles. It, and other aircraft like it, can operate from rough, relatively short airstrips.

On the NATO side, Frank Frey, in his unpublished Kenya material, had the US forces in East Africa utilizing A-1 Skyraiders requisitioned by the US government from the US-based, privately-owned Confederate Air Force (now known as the Commemorative Air Force).

I've incorporated the AN-2 Colt in an adventure module and a couple of campaigns.

What other aircraft might one see over battlefields in 2000 and beyond?

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[ChalkLine]

I've always thought squandering fuel on CAS is not a good idea when the sheer value of observation would outweigh the value of a strike many times over. Small, lightweight airframes that lift two men and a radio would be invaluable.
That said, these are the things that autocannons dream about

[castlebravo92]

I think a major problem with air support circa 2000, as much as fuel, would be munitions.

Just about all munitions are downstream from natural gas (ammonia is made from natural gas using the Haber-Bosch process, nitric acid is made from ammonia using the Ostwald process). In the best of times, these places have a tendency to catch fire and burn, and that's without nuclear detonations in the neighborhood. Oh yeah, the neighborhood these chemical plants are in is usually adjacent to refineries.

Now, a decent chemistry department at a small state school (say in Colorado Springs) could probably stand up a small chemical operation, but you're going to need the nitric acid and ammonia to make things like gun cotton (to make gun powder), propellant for rockets/mortars/howitzers/cannon, explosive filler for said rockets/mortar shells/howitzer shells/cannon shells/grenades. 2,000 lbs of explosives used on a bombing run might be a lot more useful turned into small arms propellant given limited resources.

I think Ukraine has proved that munitions stockpiles would have been exhausted very quickly and were probably being burned as quick as they were being made by late 1997 when cities started going up in flames.

That being said, I think there would still be limited aviation in play and available with big players.

[.45cultist]

The OV10 Bronco comes to mind, or the old Mohawks.

[Desert Mariner]

Originally Posted by .45cultist

The OV10 Bronco comes to mind, or the old Mohawks.

Along the same line, the Oscar Deuce (Cessna O-2 Skymaster).

[Drgonzo2011]

For a while, I ran a game (v2.2 with a modified v1 timeline) in which the players were pilots and support personnel for a mercenary air unit in Southern Africa, using Pucaras (as well as a couple of Alouettes). The Pucara fits the model of a useful, post-apoc aircraft that you could plausibly still see in the skies of Twilight 2000. Now I want to dust this campaign off and try it with V4.

[Raellus]

Originally Posted by castlebravo92

I think a major problem with air support circa 2000, as much as fuel, would be munitions.

Very true. As we've seen in Ukraine, though, all kinds of munitions can be repurposed for delivery by aircraft- mortar shells, various hand grenades, and RPG warheads, to name a few. And then there's good ol' fashioned strafing. With a two-seater like the YAK-52, the passenger could drop munitions by hand, like the early tactical bombers of the First World War.

But to be clear, I see surviving aircraft being used more for recon, surveillance, and other non-attacking support roles than CAS.

Originally Posted by Drgonzo2011

For a while, I ran a game (v2.2 with a modified v1 timeline) in which the players were pilots and support personnel for a mercenary air unit in Southern Africa, using Pucaras (as well as a couple of Alouettes). The Pucara fits the model of a useful, post-apoc aircraft that you could plausibly still see in the skies of Twilight 2000. Now I want to dust this campaign off and try it with V4.

That's cool. When I lived in Montevideo back in the early 1990s, I got to see Uruguayan Pucara's on the ground and in the air.

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[ToughOmbres]

Originally Posted by Raellus

Recently, a Cold War-era Ukrainian Yak-52 turboprop trainer variant made headlines by dogfighting with a Russian UAV. It, or sister airframe, has apparently racked up a few aerial victories as evidenced by these kill markings:

https://www.twz.com/air/yak-52-kill-...ines-drone-war

Why is this relevant to T2k? Aircraft such as the Yak-52 would be poised to make a comeback in the late stages of the Twilight War.

As WWIII grinds on, in addition to losses from battlefield attrition, SAMs would be expended (and not replaced) and most surviving AAA would be repurposed for direct fire infantry support. As a result, the FEB would become gradually less and less deadly for aircraft. Also, under the cantonment system, there wouldn't be a solid, continuous FEB. Surviving air defenses would be concentrated around major cantonments and strategic assets, leaving great gaps in AA coverage.

At the same, the quantity of operational modern combat aircraft would also diminish due to attrition, and fuel and spare parts shortages. There would be very few, if any, fighter, attack, and/or strike jets available to take advantage of much thinner land-based anti-aircraft coverage.

Under those late war circumstances, aircraft like the Yak-52 would assume a new and much greater utility. The Yak-52, for example, was plentiful (in common use across the Warsaw Pact), simple (using pneumatically actuated controls instead of hydraulics), sturdy, and wouldn't need jet fuel. It could perform reconnaissance, surveillance, and light attack roles. It, and other aircraft like it, can operate from rough, relatively short airstrips.

On the NATO side, Frank Frey, in his unpublished Kenya material, had the US forces in East Africa utilizing A-1 Skyraiders requisitioned by the US government from the US-based, privately-owned Confederate Air Force (now known as the Commemorative Air Force).

I've incorporated the AN-2 Colt in an adventure module and a couple of campaigns.

What other aircraft might one see over battlefields in 2000 and beyond?

-

I would imagine most fixed wing aircraft are long gone save for those in CentCom's area of Operation or (eventually) in CONUS after Operation Omega. Elsewhere, a unit here and there might have a helicopter and a small reserve of aviation fuel (like the MI-8 in the Free City of Krakow) or ala' the Soviets near the Romanian Ploesti fields. Otherwise, that's all folks. Decay, attrition, lack of parts and lack of pilots would mean most flying is a thing of the past. Accordingly, air defense is also (mostly) gone. Batteries, battery cooling units and MANPADS only last so long.

[castlebravo92]

Originally Posted by ToughOmbres

I would imagine most fixed wing aircraft are long gone save for those in CentCom's area of Operation or (eventually) in CONUS after Operation Omega. Elsewhere, a unit here and there might have a helicopter and a small reserve of aviation fuel (like the MI-8 in the Free City of Krakow) or ala' the Soviets near the Romanian Ploesti fields. Otherwise, that's all folks. Decay, attrition, lack of parts and lack of pilots would mean most flying is a thing of the past. Accordingly, air defense is also (mostly) gone. Batteries, battery cooling units and MANPADS only last so long.

Per 1.0 Canon, we know there is an operational refinery in Robinson, IL under US MilGov control, a refinery in Ploesti, Romania under USSR control, and refineries in Saudi Arabia / Iran under allied / Warsaw Pack control. The French also have a refinery or refineries going.

Additionally, even though most of the refineries were wiped out, there's a lot of universities that survived with chemical engineering and petroleum engineering undergrads, graduate students, and professors. Any quasi-state level government would be highly motivated to rebuild a basic chemical and petroleum industrial base close to where there were secure oil/natgas production (for MilGov, this would principally be Oklahoma & south eastern Wyoming).

So, I would expect core MilGov cantonments in CONUS to have limited air support available, even if it's just converted civilian helicopters with machine guns or Mk19s added as door guns and light airplanes for doing recon patrols for marauders outside of controlled areas. Not the same thing as radioing for an airstrike, but still would not be completely absent.

[ToughOmbres]

Originally Posted by castlebravo92

Per 1.0 Canon, we know there is an operational refinery in Robinson, IL under US MilGov control, a refinery in Ploesti, Romania under USSR control, and refineries in Saudi Arabia / Iran under allied / Warsaw Pack control. The French also have a refinery or refineries going.

Additionally, even though most of the refineries were wiped out, there's a lot of universities that survived with chemical engineering and petroleum engineering undergrads, graduate students, and professors. Any quasi-state level government would be highly motivated to rebuild a basic chemical and petroleum industrial base close to where there were secure oil/natgas production (for MilGov, this would principally be Oklahoma & south eastern Wyoming).

So, I would expect core MilGov cantonments in CONUS to have limited air support available, even if it's just converted civilian helicopters with machine guns or Mk19s added as door guns and light airplanes for doing recon patrols for marauders outside of controlled areas. Not the same thing as radioing for an airstrike, but still would not be completely absent.

Speaking of that, there is a producing well/rig in Red Star, Lone Star.; also doesn't the Pacific Northwest Sourcebook have a trickle of oil? A referee could easily wave into North Texas, OK and Louisiana and have a producing well coaxed back online.
The airframes would be the rub-seals decay, hoses fray and break down, hydraulic fluid doesn't last forever. As a referee I would probably expect most intact units to have at most a single Apache or Kiowa flying in most of CONUS plus whatever civilian aircraft/copters were still available? Those assets would be reserved for the most critical missions like targeting New America. Just a thought.

[castlebravo92]

Originally Posted by ToughOmbres

Speaking of that, there is a producing well/rig in Red Star, Lone Star.; also doesn't the Pacific Northwest Sourcebook have a trickle of oil? A referee could easily wave into North Texas, OK and Louisiana and have a producing well coaxed back online.
The airframes would be the rub-seals decay, hoses fray and break down, hydraulic fluid doesn't last forever. As a referee I would probably expect most intact units to have at most a single Apache or Kiowa flying in most of CONUS plus whatever civilian aircraft/copters were still available? Those assets would be reserved for the most critical missions like targeting New America. Just a thought.

There would be functional small wells all across Oklahoma, New Mexico, and the Texas panhandle that would only need electricity (which could be provided on-situ with portable gens) to run the pump jacks to continue producing. Additionally, back in 1996, natural gas pumps were largely natural gas powered, so limited NG production could be resumed with resources on hand.

NG is maybe more critical than oil is, because it's feedstock for things such as methanol (which you need for biodiesel), ammonia (fertilizers, explosives), and power generation.

Unfortunately, oil only gets you so far. Raw crude oil can be burned in some industrial diesel plants, but modern production of gasoline and jet fuel and aviation gasoline is pretty complex (or at least, I've been assured by someone that works in the industry that it's complex and even if you know what you are doing and had plenty of raw materials it would be extremely difficult to stand up from scratch). Basic distillate hydrocarbons get you in the 40-60 octane range. To get to the octane ranges cars need (80+) requires a pretty complex blend of hydrocarbons, detergents, and additives. A lot of those additives and detergents require you to have a chemical industry that is downstream of natural gas production.

I would expect 2-stroke motors and Sterling engines would make a heck of a comeback, as well as diesels (since it's easier to make than gasoline). But yeah, I doubt the dirigibles and ultralights are the only airpower in CONUS circa 2001. Not when there is a functioning refinery in Robinson, IL.

[Vespers War]

As an example of the less-advanced refinery outputs, the gasoline the United States exported during World War I was 62 octane. In testing (I believe by Ricardo), it only worked up to a compression ratio of 5.05:1 before knocking started. Modern airplane engines won't run on that, at least not for long, but large-displacement chunky engines running at low compression would work. The British flew on 60 octane fuel early in World War II before they received 100 octane imports from the US.

[bash]

There are ridiculous numbers of private aircraft in North America. Even after TDM there's going to be large numbers of surviving aircraft. Lack of parts and fuel will definitely impart their use but there will be more than zero aircraft in the skies in 2000.

That being said they're going to be rare sights because of parts and fuel. Major MilGov and CivGov enclaves in CONUS will be able to field aircraft for special missions, more VIP transport and recon that any combat missions. Larger settlements with an airport could also get planes in the air occasionally, fuel sources willing. In game terms they'd maybe be used on a special mission to insert PCs behind enemy lines or a "recover the MacGuffin from our crashed plane".

Ultralite planes would make for pretty good recon assets for any group with decent resources. Not just recon missions but aerial surveying and courier jobs. I also love the Airlords scenario so I'm also fine with a secret high tech derigible wreaking havoc.

[Raellus]

Although drones wouldn't be a factor in classic T2k campaigns, the use of turbo-prop training aircraft as light attack platforms certainly could. Ukraine was first to use the YAK-52 as a drone-hunter; it looks like the Russians are following suit- the latter's version features underwing-mounted shotguns.

https://www.twz.com/air/russia-testi...rainian-drones

These aircraft usually don't operate near the frontlines where enemy ADW would make short work of them. However, in a T2kU, c.2000, where AA defenses are much sparser, they might.

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[castlebravo92]

Originally Posted by Raellus

Although drones wouldn't be a factor in classic T2k campaigns, the use of turbo-prop training aircraft as light attack platforms certainly could. Ukraine was first to use the YAK-52 as a drone-hunter; it looks like the Russians are following suit- the latter's version features underwing-mounted shotguns.

https://www.twz.com/air/russia-testi...rainian-drones

These aircraft usually don't operate near the frontlines where enemy ADW would make short work of them. However, in a T2kU, c.2000, where AA defenses are much sparser, they might.

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Not only would AA defenses be much sparser, their capabilities would be much degraded. Probably not a lot of proximity fused AA rounds being produced in 2000. Not a lot of BCUs for Stingers floating around either. Nor active air defense radars.

So flying is probably a lot safer, provided you can get the fuel.

I doubt spare parts would actually be that big of a problem for re-purposed civilian craft, since there would be plenty of derelict and abandoned aircraft, not to mention you have guys building ultralights with 2-stroke lawn-mower engines, a box fan, a lawn chair, and a bed sheet these days.

[raketenjagdpanzer]

There's almost certainly a fair few combat aircraft remaining, perhaps a few dozen, in NATO hands. The French are capable of air combat operations over the German border (it's flat out stated in one of the modules), and of course a transport bird still flies off the deck of the USS John Hancock of TF34.

The question is down to use of aircraft, fuel, and munitions over target value.

A mass of 30 Pact tanks obviously getting ready for a major offensive push would merit using your last 2 F4 Phantoms and trio of A10s to try and take out. A band of Polish territorials of questionable allegiance and armed with an ASU-57 and four trucks, the rest walking or on horseback but possibly equipped with an SA7 'Grail'? A lot less so.

Since after the last battle in and around Kalisz, the WarPact forces hardly have the former, and it's most likely the latter, Tac Air is going to be scarce to non-existant.

As far as proportions of what might still be flyable, I think the RDF Sourcebook probably gives as good an outlook in terms of percentages. The US still has one carrier in need of repair moored in Kuwait, but a lot (relatively) of intact USAF birds (F15s and A10s, IIRC) and that's not to consider what the UK might have (probably the majority being SEPECAT Jaguars, Tornados, and Harriers - possibly even Buccaneers).

All in all the tac air situation is probably "less bad" than what you might think but it ain't good.

[Raellus]

Originally Posted by raketenjagdpanzer

The question is down to use of aircraft, fuel, and munitions over target value.

A mass of 30 Pact tanks obviously getting ready for a major offensive push would merit using your last 2 F4 Phantoms and trio of A10s to try and take out.

True. However, by that logic, the Battle of Kalisz would have been an entirely appropriate situation in which to employ TAC air. In it, the Soviet and PolCom forces employ masses (relatively speaking) of armor- juicy targets for TAC air, if you will- and the 5th ID finds itself on the verge of being overrun. If there was a time, c.2000, to call upon available TAC air, that would have been it. However, there's no mention of TAC air being employed by either side in canon's description of the multi-day battle.

Why not?

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[ToughOmbres]

Originally Posted by raketenjagdpanzer

There's almost certainly a fair few combat aircraft remaining, perhaps a few dozen, in NATO hands. The French are capable of air combat operations over the German border (it's flat out stated in one of the modules), and of course a transport bird still flies off the deck of the USS John Hancock of TF34.

The question is down to use of aircraft, fuel, and munitions over target value.

A mass of 30 Pact tanks obviously getting ready for a major offensive push would merit using your last 2 F4 Phantoms and trio of A10s to try and take out. A band of Polish territorials of questionable allegiance and armed with an ASU-57 and four trucks, the rest walking or on horseback but possibly equipped with an SA7 'Grail'? A lot less so.

Since after the last battle in and around Kalisz, the WarPact forces hardly have the former, and it's most likely the latter, Tac Air is going to be scarce to non-existant.

As far as proportions of what might still be flyable, I think the RDF Sourcebook probably gives as good an outlook in terms of percentages. The US still has one carrier in need of repair moored in Kuwait, but a lot (relatively) of intact USAF birds (F15s and A10s, IIRC) and that's not to consider what the UK might have (probably the majority being SEPECAT Jaguars, Tornados, and Harriers - possibly even Buccaneers).

All in all the tac air situation is probably "less bad" than what you might think but it ain't good.

By 2000 I can definitely see Jaguars, a handful of Harrier and Tornados left-with only one or two Lightings surviving. It seems more likely that more Hawks would have survived in numbers, unless they were expended in their emergency role as CAP over the UK.