Potential Australian/New Zealand/East Timor/Indonesia conflict (was Red Dawn Remake

[StainlessSteelCynic]

Originally Posted by boogiedowndonovan

anyone out there remember a guy that went by the handle Ballistix? I think his real name was Damian Robinson. He had an order of battle for the invasion of Australia by Indonesia, including a provisional battalion of US troops stranded in Australia after their convoy was sunk. I can't recall if he had anything about why Indonesia invades

I think his page can still be found via the internet wayback machine but I don't know where to look. I'll ask some friends who are more inclined to save old web addresses.

Originally Posted by boogiedowndonovan

as for motivations, my understanding is that in the 60's there was a low level conflict between Indonesia and neighboring Malaysia with Britain and Australia intervening on the side of Malaysia. That conflict was over the future of Malaysia and the sultanate of Brunei.

Suppose a radical Islamic faction takes power in Indonesia and not only talks of recovering all of Borneo, but also of establishing a Southeast Asian Islamic Emirate encompassing parts of Thailand, parts of the Phillipines and all of Malaysia, Singapore and Brunei. The radicalized government then provides covert support to equally radical Islamic groups based in Malaysia and Brunei. These groups then commit terrorist acts to destabilize the governments of Malaysia and Brunei, and as these two governments respond, Indonesia intervenes.

We could also throw in the East Timor situation. As Indonesian troops deploy to Borneo to assist the Islamic groups fighting the Malaysians and Brunei, they organize citizen's militias on East Timor to maintain order. The citizen's militias on East Timor act without impunity while enforcing order, which incites unrest among the pro-independence East Timorese.

The Australians intervene to help their neighbors, Malaysia and Brunei.

Indonesia has had plans for quite some time (since the 1950s at least) for expanding its land, simply because they have so many people on so little ground but also for other more 'empire building' reasons. They've not needed another excuse to believe that all of Singapore, Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, parts of Thailand, all of Timor & Papua New Guinea and also a significant chunk of Australia should be part of the greater Indonesian empire. They need "living room" and resources and they claim Australia is part of Asia and should be Asian, not European.
And quite frankly, there's plenty of people in power in Indonesia who have hated Australia for quite some time because they see us as being the remnants of the old 'white' imperialist regimes

Originally Posted by boogiedowndonovan

As far as US and UK involvement, at the request of the Sultan the UK does station a battalion of Ghurkas in Brunei. I can't recall what T2k canon says for the battalion of Ghurkas stationed in Brunei, if they deployed with the other Ghurkas to Hong Kong or elsewhere. As for the US involvement...oil. There are significant oil fields in or off the coast Malaysia, Brunei and Indonesia. Also, consider the Straits of Malacca, which passes between Malaysia and Indonesia, huge amounts of ship traffic, including oil tankers use the Straits to cross from the Indian Ocean to the Pacific Ocean.

I also read somewhere that New Zealand had an infantry battalion stationed in Singapore, so its possible this battalion would be involved. New Zealand would probably be involved anyways if Australia already is.

Now, a T2k US military straining to fight in Central Europe, the Middle East and Korea, wouldn't be able to dedicate many resources to fight a radicalized Islamic Indonesia, but I think they would devote something to protect a source of petroleum as well as a major supply line. Plus, we're the good guys.

Anyways, thats what I use in my campaign. What do you think? Too far fetched? I don't have my books in front of me, but doesn't T2k V2.0 have the Australians and Indonesians fighting over Papua New Guinea, and Merc 2000 has the Australians occupying Indonesia?

Australia, Malaysia, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, the UK & USA all have defence treaties regarding this region so it shouldn't really be all that difficult to invoke the clauses needed for military action once the Indonesians commit any act of aggression to a treaty member

Originally Posted by boogiedowndonovan

ps. Kato, maybe its time to split this out from the Red Dawn Remake thread?

I agree, there are some other threads I recall dealing with this issue somewhere here in the forum so perhaps if someone can find the links we can split this part into a new thread with links to the other relevant threads?

[headquarters]

just a few thoughts for discussion..

I think that a few facts that need to be accounted for in a fictious war between ANZ and Indonesia for supremacy and oil in the region .

The oil involved will mean that the UK and the US will spare little expence to ensure there is no treath to Brunei. The sole reason for maintaining this nation was to secure the oil after the colonial era ended.

The Indonesians know this and play the part of the disgruntled neighbour that needs to be placated by Bruneis supporters.Look at the arms deals between the US/UK and Indonesia over the years.

It has been the way of London/Washington to allow the Indonesian dictators wiggleroom to keep from getting communists or in our time islamists in Djakarta.

So given the unofficial support of these major players how would an Indonesian/ANZ war ferment and escalate ?
For the US and UK to abandon its allies in the Axis of G`day seems unthinkable.
But losing Indonesia is a hairy prospect as well because of shipping lanes,oil and the sheer size of it and its population.

Also the Indonesians are not a homogenous population .They represent alot of different ethnicities ,languages ,religions and social classes.
Uniting these in holy war /Jihad would take a major civil war first or the islamists would have a two front war going ,possibly three as there are divides between the moslems that run quite deep .(Indonesians have moslems of the youtube with AKs variety ,but also modern/liberals that wouldnt dream of waging war less it was self defense).

Anyways -these are just a few of my thoughts -and I surely did not mean to start a political discussion -but a backdrop to said scenario.

In the near future the fate of nations hang in the balance .In a tropical hell one man will fight a war that can change human history for hundreds of years.Battles fiercer than anything the world has seen since the world war will rage on the sea and in the air.From the byzantine halls of power in Beijing to steps of the Capitol, a conspiracy that will shock the world will unravel...

Perhaps a closer alignment/mutual support with Beijing for Indonesia,a US bogged down in costly wars in the middle east (possibly on new fronts )with some sort of economical crisis that depletes its navy /airforce so that it cant intervene at will anymore- and then a political gambit from Djakarta /Beijing to seize the oil in the region ..But something goes horribly wrong..Circumstances lead to a spark that sets of the tense situation and before anyone understands it a full blown shooting match ensues.

[headquarters]

Now that RL events have thrown sand in the FtF machine and my flight isnt able to go due to ash in the air I came up with another idea.

It looks like it is driving the car time. ( 8 hrs ..well its an FtF)

Indonesia or the region as a whole probably has a few good sized volcanos.A prolonged eruption with consecutive bursts of ash into the air/atmosphere could create huge no fly zones that bar any airtraffic.They extend greatly,move at speed and are unpredictable in as much as the winds and jetstreams control the direction of the ashes.

Such an event could hamper military operations in the air to an extent that airsupport would only be available from time to time.This would mean a huge difference in the way a modern war play out and allow less powerful militaries with big manpower and ruthless leadership room to attain some objectives .

Volcanic eruptions can last for years with periods of relative calm followed by periods of eruptive /explosive activity.

Apparently the ash is incredibly harmful to jet and prop planes alike,but especially jets as the turbines are damaged quite fast.And yeah -this means no Tomahawks either...

Could be a useful little something to drop into a stew of technothriller events that lead up to an ANZ/Indonesian brawl.

[pmulcahy11b]

If you're going to throw an Indonesian volcano into the mix:

1) You could put in some non-combat problems and casualties due to the fact that volcanic ash contains a good amount of what is basically glass. If you're close enough and sudden enough, you could have mass casualties from lung damage and eye damage.

2) Ground vehicles are not particularly fond of that glass either. They're not as vulnerable as a human being or a plane, but if you don't change your air and oil filters enough, those vehicles could come to a (literally) grinding halt. Fun not only for the troops using the vehicles, but for the supply guys.

3) Krakatoa's making noises like it might erupt again -- it might be fun to have it go off during an Indonesian campaign.

4) And then, just for S&G, there are always earthquakes and tsunamis!

[Webstral]

HQ, I like your thinking. The US and the UK could find themselves in a real pickle regarding a confrontation between Indonesia and ANZET (Australia, New Zealand, and East Timor). I like the idea of bringing in China. Perhaps, political machinations being what they are, the US/UK can be kept on the sidelines because tyhe belief that a localized conflict between strictly regional players is preferable to a more generalized conflict. Perhaps the stage could be set with the emergence of a more militant government in Indonesia. This government might make a deal with China for some sort of exclusivity regarding access to Indonesian oil and whatever oil comes out of the East Timor "situation". China, interested in having more oil and interested in flexing her muscles a bit, agrees to back Indonesia with material support and diplomatic support.

Some sort of maskirovka has to be generated to create a casus belli in East Timor. Once the shooting starts, Indonesia makes a bid to keep US/UK forces out of the fight by having China delcare the war a local confrontation not involving the great powers. Behind the scenes, China rattles the coin box fat with US Treasury notes.

Of course, Australia has strong ties to the Chinese economy, too. I'm not sure how to play that one out. Maybe China plays both sides here. China doesn't interfere with ANZ support for East Timor so she can watch how the war unfolds, and also to give her client a chance to beat some Westerners. Once things go a certain distance, of course, China intends to step in and call for peace on terms favorable to her client. There's a complex political dance needed to enable ANZET to carry the story by fighting Indonesia without having the great powers get involved. Hm.

Webstral

[RN7]

Has anyone ever heard of the book by Eric Willmot called 'Below the Line'? Its basically a story about an Indonesian invasion of Australia which succeeds in annexing all of Australia north of a line from Brisbane to Carnarvon in Western Australia. The term 'South Irian' is used by Indonesians to describe Australia, and I believe it has also been used in real life by Indonesian nationalists to make Australian's a bit jumpy.

On a more realistic note the Indonesians couldn't pull it off. The distances and logistics are way beyond Indonesian capabilities, although they could probably land some soldiers along Australia's vast coastline who could cause some trouble. Unless the Australian or Western intelligence community is asleep for a few months they are bound to notice any build up of Indonesian forces on a scale that would be needed to invade Australia. Naval and air transports would be easily tracked and fairly easily picked off by better equipped and trained Australian naval and air forces. Any heavy ground units that Indonesia could concievably land woud be easy meat for the Australian army and RAAF, and even if the Aussies don't get them the outback would.

Australia also has too many allies that woud help. Even if America remained neutral, which is highly unlikely, Britain, New Zealand and Canada would send forces and aid, as might many other countries even in Asia. Indonesia would need the help of another major power to even contemplate an invasion. Although China automatically springs to mind, the Chinese and Indonesians don't like each other that much. There has been a lot of political and racially motivated anti-Chinese discrimination in both Indonesia and Malaysia during the 20th Century, much of it very voilent. Singapore which has a majority ethnic Chinese population became an independent country largely over the mutual mistrust and animosty that exists between the Chinese and locals in these countries. Also Australia is probably a lot more importantant to the Chinese economy that Indonesia, as a sizeable portion of China's raw material and agricultural imports come from Australia.

[Jason Weiser]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tomorrow_series

Also not bad, some big holes (such as the US not intervening...fat chance), but they didn't specifically name the enemy...I took it to be the Indonesians.

[Targan]

Originally Posted by Jason Weiser

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tomorrow_series

Also not bad, some big holes (such as the US not intervening...fat chance), but they didn't specifically name the enemy...I took it to be the Indonesians.

Great link Jason! And the best part... this at the end of the Wikipedia article:

"In June 2009, Screen Australia announced that it would fund the development of the feature film Tomorrow, When the War Began, written and directed by screenwriter Stuart Beattie (Australia, Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl), and produced by Andrew Mason for Ambience Entertainment, reportedly to begin production in late 2009. Raymond Terrace in the Hunter Region of New South Wales, was chosen as a major location for producing the film. The film is expected to show in cinemas in September 2, 2010."

An Aussie version of Red Dawn! Ripper!

[Webstral]

I want to be clear that I am not talking about an invasion of Australia by Indonesia. I'm talking about an invasion of East Timor by Indonesia.

Webstral

[Targan]

How about an invasion of Papua New Guinea by Indonesia? That would be very much worth their while. PNG has huge amounts of untapped resources.

[Webstral]

Originally Posted by Targan

How about an invasion of Papua New Guinea by Indonesia? That would be very much worth their while. PNG has huge amounts of untapped resources.

Another interesting prospect. With the aid of a good deception plan, the Indonesians might stockpile weapons and supplies on their half of the island. The tail-end of the plan might be the transport of a goodly number of troops to the island just before the offensive kicks off. Lots of details to be sorted there. Once the fighting on the ground began, both sides would fight an air/sea battle to keep their own supply lines open while interdicting the enemy's supply lines.

Webstral

[boogiedowndonovan]

good points by SSC and RN7

I did not know that Indonesia made claim to Australia or Indonesia's bad feelings regarding past colonialism. but hey, I'm just an average American.

I seem to recall Ballistix' site mentioning that significant parts of the Pakistani Navy sailed to Indonesia after India defeated Pakistan. If I ever find the url and if webarchive can find it, I'll post what he had.

As far as Chinese involvement on the side of Indonesia. I don't have that in my T2k world. They'd be a little busy getting whomped by the Soviets. Like RN7 said, there's been some major discrimination by Indonesia against their minority Chinese population. There was a major anti Chinese riot in 1997 I believe.

paraphrasing but canon T2k V2.0 and 2.2 does mention Australia and Indonesia engaging in aeronaval battles over Papua New Guinea. I can't recall the outcome, I think it says that both sides exhaust themselves, but someone with access to the books can fill it in. Or you could go the Merc 2000 route and have Australia defeating and occupying all of Indonesia.

[kato13]

Originally Posted by boogiedowndonovan

paraphrasing but canon T2k V2.0 and 2.2 does mention Australia and Indonesia engaging in aeronaval battles over Papua New Guinea. I can't recall the outcome, I think it says that both sides exhaust themselves, but someone with access to the books can fill it in.

Pretty good if from memory

Originally Posted by V2.2 rulebook

Australia was largely untouched by the nuclear exchange, but the global panic which followed left its mark on both the cities and outback. Large parts of the countryside are now in anarchy, terrorized, or insular, but the major cities are organized and controlled by the central government. A short war was fought with Indonesia after it invaded Australia's ally, Papua New Guinea. The Indonesian offensive quickly halted, mostly due to logistical collapse, but not before a majority of Australia's and Indonesia's modern aircraft and naval vessels had been damaged or destroyed in a series of running aeronaval actions.

[boogiedowndonovan]

Originally Posted by kato13

Pretty good if from memory

thanks! yeah, I hate to say it, I remember useless stuff and forget important things.

I dug through some of my old emails and found the link to Damian Robinson's T2k Indonesia-Australia site. (link was actually in an email from the etranger yahoo group)

http://web.archive.org/web/200210220...t/T2KAust.html

He's also got a transcript of the incident where someone on the old WebRPG board thought Loren was female.

http://web.archive.org/web/200210220...loren_who.html

[Mohoender]

Originally Posted by Targan

I don't think it takes a great leap of imagination to envisage a day where world conditions have deteriorated, rising sea levels eat away more and more of Indonesia's land mass, the military regain some of the power they have lost in the past 15 years and a more militant or (heaven forbid) radical Islamist government takes power. Right now Australia has powerful friends that would tend to scare off any conceivable military threat to Australia but that might not last forever. One of my big regrets is that if Australia and Indonesia ever enter into a serious stoush I'll be too old to do my part for my country in the manner my warrior spirit would want me to. I'll just have to find a sneakier way to have a go at the enemy.

Hello Targ, just to refocus on your initial question.

I like your idea but I don't see the rising sea level to be the trigger. If a good chunk of Indonesia gets underwater, that would probably be the case for Australia as well. However, some other catastrophy (multiple earthquake and repeated tsunamis, for exemple), could make people's life miserable. Then, that combined (as you say) with some radical leadership can drive people out. Australia would be a very tempting target.

Develop it, I would like to see more.