The 8th ID takes a wrong turn at Albuquerque...

[sglancy12]

Gentlemen,

I've read through all the canon material in both versions of the US Army Vehicle Guide, The OOB in Going Home and the East Europe Sourcebook and I've got to tell you, I am not happy with the rational for dropping the 8th Infantry Division into Latvia.

A rookie officer reads a map wrong and the WHOLE division ends up not in Lithuania or the RFSSR enclave around Kalingrad, but in freakin' Latvia?

First of all, one "rookie officer" can't get an entire division lost. That's not the way divisions move. It's not like some bickering couple in a horror movie where one of them is reading the map while the other is driving and Whoops! They fail to take that left turn at Albuquerque and end up having to spend the night in Dracula's castle.

What? Everyone in the division woke up and forgot which side of the map the sun comes up on?

Sovetsk is in the RFSSR enclave around Kalingraad, right on the border with Lithuania. To cross Lithuania and get to Saldus Latvia is like 230+ km! Sorry. I'm not buying that. You need more going on to make them go that far... like a Soviet Army barking at their heels.

Second of all, how does a division running on ethanol and methanol have the range to get themselves stuck two countries away from where they are supposed to be? I can understand that since they were given the assignment to flank and pursue Warsaw Pact units in Northern Poland they might be give more than their fair share of fuel, but when things fall apart for XI Corps and the III German Army I can't imagine them just blundering off to Latvia. When they should be running west as fast as they can. Sure there could be Pact Units surrounding them and this was the only direction they could break out, but 200+km is a bit far to run when there's NO ONE on their six. I mean, Lithuania is completely clear of Soviet Units. The 8th ID actually has to cross an area they are safe in to get into an area with 5000+ (reasonably loyal) soviet troops.

If I was rewriting this I would have them break out of their own encirclement (ala the 5th ID) and find themselves out of fuel in Lithuania. Hell, they could accidentally become the Liberators of Lithuania by scaring off the MVD and KGB units that have been oppressing the local Lithuanians.

Frankly the Latvians are in a pretty good situation with the defection of the 26th GMRD to Latvia. They don't need the Americans in there to help. Maybe it would make for better role-playing opportunities if the 8th ID find themselves dragooned into becoming the saviors of Lithuania. I can imagine the Lithuanians helping the 8th ID with all the ammo and gear they can spare, but never enough fuel to get back across the Baltic Coast to XI Corps.

A. Scott Glancy, President TCCorp, dba Pagan Publishing

[Legbreaker]

I'm with you on the navigation issue - it just doesn't ring true (although I wouldn't be totally surprised - I've seen some absolutely WOEFUL nav skills over the years!)
To my mind there has to be another explanation, some mission they were tasked with but was kept secret from the bulk of the men, or they were chased there by overwhelming force, or something more fantastic (but at least more believable).

Perhaps the 8th's real mission was to seize and hold Estonia's oil shade and a nearby port. With the rest of the German III Army holding northern Poland and the Baltic coast, the resulting synthetic crude could be shipped fairly safely to the rest of Nato.

Hmm, maybe this shale was the actual objective of the whole offensive?

[Canadian Army]

I believe they teach Orienteering as part of Infantry training for Officers, at least they do in Canada.

[Legbreaker]

Teach it, yes, but does that mean everyone actually passes?
Hell, here in Australia it's part of recruit training for the enlisted. About week three of 12 if my memory serves (it has been nearly 20 years).

[HorseSoldier]

I suspect what we're seeing is poor internal consistency between products, with the initial idea being what the OP suggested -- 8th ID is eventually pushed into a stable position in Latvia by the enemy situation further west. Then later writers failed to substantiate that in other sourcebooks. As for the navigation error, I agree it's improbable, but maybe it's a bit of a joke -- the division's patch being 'eight up' and all . . ..

[rcaf_777]

I know I have said this before but, as a boy scout leader I teach boys and girls ages 9-13 Map and Compass and they get it, and are very good at it. SOOOOOOOOOOOO it begs the question why is the most dangerous thing I have every encoutner in my military career is an OFFICER WITH A MAP

[Raellus]

The 8-Ball's plight is one of T2K's most hair-brained, half-baked ideas.

It's not canonical but I've injected the Soviet 9th GTA into northern Poland as a mechanism to explain the collapse of German 3rd Army's summer offensive. I think this could also help explain how the 8th ID ends up in Latvia. The sudden appearance of a Soviet tank army in 8th ID's operational rear area could explain 8th ID's long, strange trip into Latvia. With a strong enemy at their heels and relatively undefended territory in front of them, they could be forgiven for going the wrong way.

This explanation is still a stretch but it does make more sense than some rookie staff officer making a wrong turn (that 1000 other people don't notice until it's too late). That's just preposterous.

[HorseSoldier]

This explanation is still a stretch but it does make more sense than some rookie staff officer making a wrong turn (that 1000 other people don't notice until it's too late). That's just preposterous.

That story is coming out of East Europe Sourcebook, right? I never paid attention to the v2.x supplements, since they seemed to either be rehashed stuff or just crap. EES being an example of the latter.

[Mohoender]

Originally Posted by rcaf_777

I know I have said this before but, as a boy scout leader I teach boys and girls ages 9-13 Map and Compass and they get it, and are very good at it. SOOOOOOOOOOOO it begs the question why is the most dangerous thing I have every encoutner in my military career is an OFFICER WITH A MAP

I learned map and compass at that age. During an exercise (as conscript), I was in charge of them and we were to get back to our airbase as fast as possible. Our squad was the last to leave (2 hours after the first) and I had a fucked-up knee. We arrived second at the base, only ten minutes after the squad that left first (I still thank that teacher today). The answer might be that officers don't ever reach the mental age of 9.

[pmulcahy11b]

Maybe they're supposed to be some sort of foil for the 26th GMRD, but it's another one of those boo-boos by GDW. Why are you anyway, to demand a good explanation for everything?!

[Legbreaker]

The position of the 8th ID is first established in V1.0. Further explaination of their plight is found in the east Europe book.

The more I think about it, the stronger I believe that the 8th were in the area by plan rather than accident. Their exact location may be a result of navigational error, but in my mind that wouldn't put them more than a couple of dozen miles away from where they thought they were.

Bear in mind that there's no GPS, maps are scarce and probably completely inadequate - 1:1,000,000 or greater and intended for aircrew.

I'm liking the shale oil idea as an objective as it both removes the resource from the Soviets and gives Nato greater mobility. It may require domination of the Baltic to allow transport of the oil, but with the entire Polish coast covered by the German III Army, I don't see that being a major concern.

Why wouldn't Nato go for shale deposits closer to their starting position? Probably because they were already strongly covered by Pact forces, had been worked dry by the Germans in WWII and likely nuked by one, or both sides in 1997-98.

[Fusilier]

Originally Posted by Raellus

It's not canonical but I've injected the Soviet 9th GTA into northern Poland.

In my current campaign (taking place in northern Poland and regarding the 8th), I've also added additional forces. Partly to give some more challenge to the players but also as added pressure on the 8th Division to help explain their questionable actions.

[boogiedowndonovan]

Craig Shelley is the author of East European Sourcebook and the adventure City of Angels.

If you think East European Sourcebook is bad, City of Angels is far worse, IMHO.

Aside from the such noteworthy things such as the Turkish Army having more T-55, 7-62 and T-72 tanks than any other tank in their inventory, I found the East European sourcebook useful.

I did like his fleshing out of the remnants of 8th ID. I'm not too keen on the map reading "mistake". I like the shale oil angle.

Also didn't 1st edition mention the Free Latvia Army somewhere? Perhaps linking up with the Free Latvia Army and securing the shale oil were the true objectives (although a bit ambitious).

[Abbott Shaull]

Well if they were being pursued, and being they were more or less turned loose to do what Mechanized/Armor type unit is envisioned to do. I think a junior officer making a mistake reading a compass is the least of their problems. Especially if they all other are too busy doing whatever they were doing that even the old crusty NCOs that were still around failed to realize the mistake. Then it plausible. Also don't forget they would of passed the 22nd Cavalry Army on it rush to the party north of Kalisz...

[Legbreaker]

I don't think V1 had anything on Latvia besides the 8th being in the area.

The shale might have been far reaching, but there was an entire Army backing it all up, plus whatever else was happening with other units a little further south. I can't imagine that the German III Army would have been the only ones on the offensive - the others may only have been a diversion to tie up the Pact forces, but they had to be actively involved in the overall European plan to some degree.

Although the US XI Corps where the only ones to make any significant ground, my guess is the rest of the German III were to follow on and reinforce. They would allow the northern Poland corridor to be held.

Once the shale was secured and extraction of oil underway, Nato forces could only increase in power as their manoeuvrability increased. The Pact may counterattack, but first they'd have to recover from the German III'ds drive.

Re the navigation mistake, by 2000 it's possible not many compasses remain. Given a few cloudy days without the sun to use as a bearing and it's possible a few small mistakes could snowball. It'd still have to be a hell of a chain of events though for the entire Division to become "geographically embarrassed".

[Raellus]

Originally Posted by Legbreaker

Once the shale was secured and extraction of oil underway, Nato forces could only increase in power as their manoeuvrability increased. The Pact may counterattack, but first they'd have to recover from the German III'ds drive.

Re the navigation mistake, by 2000 it's possible not many compasses remain. Given a few cloudy days without the sun to use as a bearing and it's possible a few small mistakes could snowball. It'd still have to be a hell of a chain of events though for the entire Division to become "geographically embarrassed".

Oil shale is an interesting idea, but how does the 8th extract and refine the oil? Isn't it running on alcohol anyway? Wouldn't it have to reconvert all of its engines to use it? How on earth would the 8th get that oil back to NE Poland?

Re navigation, even just using dead-reckoning, I just don't see anyone could not notice that they'd travelled several hundred extra kilometers. What about roadsigns, locals, prisoners, etc? Something would tip the 8th off that it had gone too far. The whole thing just doesn't make any sense.

I think that maybe the game designers stuck the 8th all the way over in Latvia so that players who wanted a more macro, large unit campaign, could game out a scenario similar to the one presented in EFK, but on a much larger scale. Whatever the rationale, it's just plain silly.

[sglancy12]

I gotta tell ya ... it's not the compass mistake that's the dumbest part. It's the 200+ km detour north. Moving 1,000 men 200 km is a bit of a logistical and supply nightmare in the Summer of 2000. Again, the 8th ID was set up by XI Corps to act as a pursuit and flanking unit for the drive into Poland, so they might have had the lion's share of the Corps' fuel reserves, and be more motorized that most of the units in XI Corps. So maybe they have the means of getting that far... but on purpose. Not by accident.

I can't buy the oil shale in Estonia idea. One Division? Against all the Soviet Divisions of the Northwestern Theater? Yeah, that's a great idea. If there is oil shale in Estonia then the Sovs are exploiting it, and are unlikely to give it up without a fight. And if they are exploiting it, then the Soviet units they are moving against are likely to be gas fueled. Yeah... this really is a bad idea.

No, the only thing that works for me is to throw some extra Soviet Units in there to chase the 8th ID north into the Baltic States. It would have to be a significant or very skillfully deployed force to have whittled the 8th ID down to 1000 effectives. From there the division can try to winter over 2000-2001 with the locals, who will undoubtedly appreciate the fact that they are not Russians. The locals won't nearly be so hostile as other East Bloc locations since there were no US nuclear strikes in the three Baltic Republics. I'm always dubious about the receptions American's get in Poland when the US clearly didn't restrain itself when it came to nuking stuff. But not so in the Baltic States.

A. Scott Glancy, President TCCorp, dba Pagan Publishing

[Legbreaker]

The 8th in my proposed scenario aren't the ones that will do the extraction - that's to be done by engineers and equipment brought in by sea once the area is secured.
It's also possible the plan could have involved using local manpower and skills to do the job.

The 8th also didn't make it to the shale, the navigational error (more minor than presented in the book) along with a few other "hiccups" along the way left them a little short of the objective and nothing but fumes in the tank.

Once processed, the oil could be shipped back by sea. We know the Marines were moved into Northern Poland that way, and the same ships could potentially be used. Even if just the unprocessed shale itself was shipped, that's probably more than Nato had available before the offensive. It could then be processed back in Germany in plants constructed over the previous year.

The 8th themselves probably wouldn't need much of the oil for themselves. Being relatively stationary and tasked (once arrived) with defence of the resource, locally produced alcohol might be enough for most of their vehicles - only their aircraft would need the oil based fuels.

Roadsigns in a war zone? As in England in 1940, the signs were probably removed to prevent the enemy using them to navigate by. Locals are few and far between, and may, or may not tell the truth. Prisoners would likewise be untrustworthy as sources of navigational intel.

There's no way a single navigational mistake is going to put them 200+ km off course. That's a given. It would though put them 20-30km off, possibly more if the maps were dodgy and the weather foul.

It could be that the Soviets are indeed exploiting it, to the limits of their abilities anyway. Don't forget that they have the far more readily available oil from Romania to use though, so shale oil is less likely to be a priority for them. It could also be that the locals have carried on regular sabotage of the facilities, or that the necessary transportation infrastructure has been destroyed (and processing facilities are somewhere back in Russia).

Perhaps the 8th were not expected to take the resource all by themselves? Maybe the 50th AD, 116th ACR and Canadians were to follow on immediately but instead got bogged down when the Pact counter attacked quicker, and harder than expected? It could even be that the Marines were to re-board their ships and move around the moment the Germans caught up and relieved them?

Without the Pact being weak in the north of Poland, the entire offensive is extremely unlikely to have occurred. This weakness could actually have been part of the Pact plan - lure Nato into attacking through this corridor then slam the gate shut behind them, cutting off at least XI Corp and hopefully all of German III Army before pushing them into the sea?

It may not even have been the shale they were after, but some other resource, or collection of resources in the area. Oil shale just seems like something worth fighting over in T2K.

[HorseSoldier]

It would have to be a significant or very skillfully deployed force to have whittled the 8th ID down to 1000 effectives.

The write up for them suggests they were heavily disintegrating on their own and scattering stragglers all over the place as they moved, so their attrition is likely mostly not from combat. At least not directly. (And as written makes me wonder if someone at GDW or one of their friends was not running a campaign based on 8th ID(M) that got worked into the canonical T2k universe -- the whole thing about "one platoon even made it to Finland!" seems kind of odd . . .)

[atiff]

Maybe it's all part of the German master plan?

May, 2000.
You know, Gunther, the world is pretty screwed up. How about we stage an "offensive", let all the Yanks go at the front, get themselves smashed up and bloody those Commies a bit for us. Then, we convince them that it's all over here, no more can be done, etc., and we offer them some ships to get back to the US - but we keep all their remaining toys as compensation for our efforts? Think they might go for that?

[Legbreaker]

That could work too... Shame it's only about a quarter of the Americans in Germany involved though.

[StainlessSteelCynic]

Estonia has had an industry for processing oil from shale since the early 20th century so in some cases, the infrastructure and personnel may still exist. Or reconnaissance may have confirmed that the infrastructure was in a damaged although repairable state.
Also, the process for recovering oil from shale isn't particularly difficult and the basics of the process having been known in Europe since at least the 1600s. You can find information on it in any good encyclopedia.

The 8th ID heading for the shale deposits in Estonia certainly makes for an interesting speculation because the oils extracted don't necessarily have to be used for fuel.
Lubricants are far more important. Alcohol can be used for fuel but you can't use it to 'lube up' the bearings on an axle.

[Abbott Shaull]

I think if the 5th Mechanized hadn't been slammed between the Polish 1st Tank Army, and the Soviet 4th Guards Tank Army, 22nd Cavalry Army, and elements of the 3rd Shock Army it would met the same fate. The IX Corps was luck that the 2nd Marine Division was able to more or less link back up with them and consolidate.

[atiff]

Originally Posted by Legbreaker

That could work too... Shame it's only about a quarter of the Americans in Germany involved though.

Ah, but that's the point.... there are only enough ships for 3/4 of the Americans.... They'd never go for it if they had to pick straws to see who stays....

[Abbott Shaull]

LOL the 2000 Offensive wasn't about showing the flexing of muscle, but to isolate American units so the US would be more incline to leave on German terms. *shakes head*

What a brilliant way to get rid of the excessive command layers that the US traditional brings to the table, while those troops remaining would be more willing to take commands from German Army...lol

[Legbreaker]

Back onto the 8th ID navigational error - it seems that the officer responsible wasn't in a combat unit at the front, but rather a staff officer. In that light a navigational error seems a little more likely - the wrong information was supplied to the units on the ground rather than an individual officer misreading the map or compass.

Still, nobody checked his work?
Possible I suppose since they were in action and short handed....

[Adm.Lee]

Originally Posted by Legbreaker

Back onto the 8th ID navigational error - it seems that the officer responsible wasn't in a combat unit at the front, but rather a staff officer. In that light a navigational error seems a little more likely - the wrong information was supplied to the units on the ground rather than an individual officer misreading the map or compass.

Still, nobody checked his work?
Possible I suppose since they were in action and short handed....

I'd be more inclined to believe the staff officer got confused and sent someone up the wrong road, and then the Soviets started attacking from multiple directions. It doesn't even have to be the whole division sent the wrong way, but some vital element, like a notable chunk of the engineers or fuel trucks. Something that the rest of the formation would want to go rescue.

[Legbreaker]

I agree, you've only got to have something important head off in the wrong direction and get stuck for the entire unit to be derailed.
What may have happened is the logisitical tail headed up the wrong road, taking a left when they should have taken a right and in a huge hurry to catch up with the combat elements before a small enemy force caught up with them. Hell they could have been breaking contact with a plattoon or two of cavalry at the time, in a desperate hurry to pack up and get rolling before they were rolled over.

Still, I don't think that would put them more than a few dozen miles out of their way. I'm still thinking it had to be a bigger mistake, something in the Divisional movement orders themselves.

Perhaps the Staff Officer in question was in the Intel section - he advised that taking a particular road would head off an enemy unit they were chasing - "it'd only take them a hundred kilometres and bring them out a few hours in front..."
Instead it was the wrong road he was looking at on the map and it curved around, barely noticed in the poor visibility.

[HorseSoldier]

A relatively modest and plausible error could have put 8th ID(M) in a situation where their routes back west were blocked -- especially if someone flubbed an intel estimate that missed a newly arriving threat in the area.

It's all probably excessive hand waving to substantiate a flawed product, though.

[Legbreaker]

I don't see the 8th being where they are shown as a flaw. Putting it all on one officers shoulders is where the problem lies.
The problem obviously lays with the author, however chances are they were a little pressed for both time and space and so were unable to expand on their ideas (or have them properly checked before publication).