GPS and Other Satellites

[Legbreaker]

Missed on the spelling.
Oh well, we've learnt something.

[Legbreaker]

Originally Posted by Rainbow Six

3RD FOREIGN LEGION
INFANTRY REGIMENT (REI)
Subordination: Latin American Regional Command
Current Location: Kourou
Manpower: 350

From wikipedia

The regiment is composed of around 675 men organised into 5 companies.

Looks like they've taken about 50% casualties then. That's one hell of a lot for a country not involved in conflict!
The other units in the command also appear to have suffered very heavily.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/9th_Ma...antry_Regiment
https://translate.google.com.au/tran...es&prev=search

[Rainbow Six]

Originally Posted by Legbreaker

From wikipedia
Looks like they've taken about 50% casualties then. That's one hell of a lot for a country not involved in conflict!
The other units in the command also appear to have suffered very heavily.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/9th_Ma...antry_Regiment
https://translate.google.com.au/tran...es&prev=search

I suppose assuming that their losses are down to casualties is one way of looking at it. Equally possible that they have had personnel detached to serve elsewhere because things were so quiet that it was felt that they could maintain order with 50% of their manpower.

So once again, up to each individual to interpret the material as they wish - I am not seeing anything written down in a published source that definitively confirms whether the Guiana Space Center is operational or not.

[Legbreaker]

While it is possible troops were withdrawn, that's still a pretty big reduction. The 33rd for example is down to about 25% and they apparently have the largest area to cover (French speakers/readers please correct me if I'm wrong - google translate is only so good).
I like to look at it more like the launch facility was attacked in some manner and the 3rd was either caught in the blast/fallout, or was downwind and suffered casualties from toxic chemicals when the rocket fuel went up (or something along those lines). Troops from the other two units were reassigned to make up some of the losses.
It's equally possible troops were lost in conventional operations against local forces, desertion, disease, starvation, or any number of other causes.

Regardless of any of the above, it's extremely unlikely the French are going to be allowing anybody else to a) use the facility, no matter what condition it's in, or b) have access to any satellites they may happen to have in operation for any reason.

In post 2000 good communications would be vital to controlling what's left of the worlds resources. Maintaining a monopoly on this would ensure France's leading position in global matters for decades to come.

[Rainbow Six]

Originally Posted by Legbreaker

Regardless of any of the above, it's extremely unlikely the French are going to be allowing anybody else to a) use the facility, no matter what condition it's in, or b) have access to any satellites they may happen to have in operation for any reason.

In post 2000 good communications would be vital to controlling what's left of the worlds resources. Maintaining a monopoly on this would ensure France's leading position in global matters for decades to come.

Agreed. I've never argued anything to the contrary.

[Olefin]

Given that the French still have units deployed at the Space Center I would think it was definitely intact - there is no mention of any nuclear attacks on the French in South America - and the second version does go into some detail as to what happened in the Caribbean and South America with the only nuclear attacks mentioned being on oil producing areas in the Caribbean (which doesnt apply here) or the minor nuclear war between Argentina and Brazil (again doesnt apply here)

as to the strength of the French units and how they have been reduced - they would probably have been seeing riot control duty as well as defending the Space Center from those who want to get at any supplies that were there - and you have to remember the Dutch have a Marine battalion in the Caribbean as well - and I could easily see where they might do one heck of a raid to damage the facility or try to to get even for what the French did to them in Europe - keep in mind the Dutch Marines in Europe have been conducting their own sabotage war against the French successfully so why not have their Caribbean battalion join in on the fun?

[Olefin]

Originally Posted by Legbreaker

Gateway to the Spanish Main: SSN Corpus Christian
Last sub series: SSN-705 City of Corpus Christi

Similar names granted, but definitely different.


Nothing to say that didn't get hit. Remember the strike list(s) only detail warheads of 0.5 MT or greater with only a few specific exceptions. Note also the last scout was launched in 1994 and the design retired. It also had a very small payload.


First point, with it's relative proximity to the US, and the previously established targeting of important facilities in neutral countries, do you really think this wouldn't have been hit by the Soviets?
Secondly, even if it did survive, the French are militantly neutral and not sharing anything with either side. They're not going to be launching anything for anyone (even if they retain the capability during the course of the war, which is doubtful), and they're also not going to be allowing anyone to use what little they've got already up.
Also, not only Soviet and US satellites are going to be targeted and taken out. Anything in orbit it likely to be attacked, if not by a direct strike, then by shrapnel from previous attacks. While attacks are ongoing, and until it can be deemed relatively safe, nobody's going to risk sending anything up. It's not like putting up a cheap weather balloon - these things are EXPENSIVE!!!


The Japanese aren't launching anything for the same reasons as the French. Also, during and post war (for a few years at least) they're not likely to have the raw materials and other resources to do it anyway - there's a reason why the Japanese expanded into the rest of Asia and the Pacific in the 1930's and early 40's. They just don't have many natural sources of raw materials at home.
Even if Japan hasn't been nuked (and why would the Soviets and North Koreans ignore all those US targets https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United...ent_facilities), they've still got a huge (for the land size) population to try and feed. Starvation, rioting, etc would be a real problem, effectively stopping attempts at launching anything.

I wont argue much on the sub but again it shows a classic example of how GDW guys may have not been talking to each other to coordinate their stories - because the sub in question sank the Cuban ship in late 2000 - which according to Last Submarine there werent any US subs left to sink that ship by 2000 - remember they grabbed the supposedly last sub a long time before that

As I have said in another thread that was one reason my GM had the sub from the Last Submarine still in US hands but with a non-functional fire system (meaning its basically useless) and the UBF having her sister sub that was mentioned as having disappeared on her last cruise - made more sense as to how the two modules interacted - but thats a different argument entirely

I would think that given how much information there is on Maryland and Virginia in the modules and Challenge that a nuclear attack on Wallops would have been mentioned for sure - the authors detailed every other US launch site as well as the Soviet ones being taken out - so leaving out the French one and Wallops may have been intentional as was Kagoshima - i.e. great material for future stories on sending out characters to retrieve technology

as for the French launching anything - if anyone still has the ability to build satellites its them - and again we aren't talking state of the art here - the tech to build the satellites of the 1960's and 70's would still be available to them - and considering they are one of the few nations that still have forces deployed worldwide they would need functional communication satellites if only one or two

[StainlessSteelCynic]

It may have been intentional but without one of the GDW staffers to confirm that we will never know. There's an equal chance it may have been simply missed (for example, Wallops became part of the Goddard Space Flight Centre in 1981 so the GDW crew may have been thinking of it as part of Goddards) or it may have been one of those sites hit with a smaller warhead, it may have been hit by other means (e.g. sub-launched conventional warhead, special forces raids or other exotics) or it may have been intended for a later adventure scenario and as mentioned by GDW themselves, they intentionally did not list the entire nuclear arsenal of each side as being used because they decided to leave some for individual GMs to use as they saw fit to enhance their own games, that is to say, they deliberately left some targets and they deliberately left some warheads so that the GMs could tailor the attacks to their own games.

[bobcat]

the biggest problem with this debate is one key fact. by 1998 per V1 or V2 cannon nothing would be able to survive in any of the low or mid earth orbits. between debris from ASAT hits, nuclear intercepts, lost satellites from EMP. the world would be looking at severe Kessler Syndrome. the magnitude of this would ground any attempts at launches for several decades at the earliest and even then only high earth and geosynchronous orbits would likely be feasible.

[Legbreaker]

Originally Posted by bobcat

...only high earth and geosynchronous orbits would likely be feasible.

And even GETTING there would be extremely risky!

[StainlessSteelCynic]

I did kinda hint at the problem with space debris in one of my earlier comments but I didn't think the problem would be quite so bad!
So irrespective of usable rockets that are conveniently near enough to the launch pad and irrespective of the willingness to commit vital resources to an endeavour that has extremely limited usage and low rates of success, there's unlikely to be any way to bypass the debris field until a nation is in a position to actually clean up the low- and mid-range orbits.

[.45cultist]

Originally Posted by StainlessSteelCynic

Sheesh, that means the situation with GPS satellites would be even worse than the info I found!
One day would be enough to make it worthless as a navigational aid so the USA and its allies better remember their map & compass nav skills

There is an uneven trend to correct the reliance on digital navigation. Not just the military, but civil aviation as well. Uneven because the U.S. started with aviation and armor. 11B are personal initiative of the training nco's and officers. This was from discussions, reading various articles and is by no means "scientific".

[Legbreaker]

Shame it's about 20 years too late for T2K...

[Targan]

Originally Posted by Rainbow Six

So there is a large contingent of Foreign Legion troops in the vicinity of the site of the Guiana Space Centre and another large contingent of French troops in the capital of French Guiana.

Hmm, that certainly does suggest that either the space launch facility is intact, or there's enough left that the French think it's worth protecting with a considerable investment of manpower.

[Targan]

Originally Posted by kato13

The next paragraph radically changes the context of the quotes as far as this discussion goes.

Whoops

Originally Posted by kato13

Given how important the GPS system is I could see MILGOV sacrificing quite a bit to make sure they can update them twice a year. Don't know how long they could keep them working but they would sure try.

In my world the GPS system would be some where between useless (If ASATs or EMP were really effective), to only being able to provide accurate time (if say 3 or 4 are alive) , to the least likely option partially functional (with like 8 sats working properly, like during the deployment for "desert shield").

If you say you can only get a link for 4 hours every 4 days that could be a useful plot device. You could even have a few sats giving out erroneous information so if you check during other times you get totally wrong information.

Sounds reasonable.

[Olefin]

Keep in mind that even a catastrophic Kessler scenario in LEO (low earth orbit) poses a minimal risk for launches of craft that are going past LEO - or for satellites and craft above LEO. Also even in the worst case scenario what you get is an increase in the number of collisions, not a physically impassable barrier to space exploration or a barrier that prevents craft to getting to higher orbits.

After all the Soviet weather satellite did survive to re-enter - if the debris had been so bad that LEO was impassible then it would been destroyed long before.

Also the debris in LEO will eventually decay and re-enter just due to residual air drag at those orbital heights - meaning that in a couple of decades at most the increase in collision risks will significantly be reduced.

And France has one big advantage in that they may very well have an intact satellite manufacturer - i.e. Cannes Mandelieu Space Center in Cannes has been making satellites for quite a while - i.e. the satellite division of Aerospatiale - so that would give the French most likely the last intact satellite manufacturing plant in the world and a launch facility that they could use as well - the question is how much of their facilities are still in one piece along with engineers and technicians

[RN7]

Originally Posted by Rainbow Six

http://www.oocities.org/littlegreenm...T2K_France.htm

I love it when people quote my work.

[RN7]

Originally Posted by Olefin

Keep in mind that even a catastrophic Kessler scenario in LEO (low earth orbit) poses a minimal risk for launches of craft that are going past LEO - or for satellites and craft above LEO. Also even in the worst case scenario what you get is an increase in the number of collisions, not a physically impassable barrier to space exploration or a barrier that prevents craft to getting to higher orbits.

After all the Soviet weather satellite did survive to re-enter - if the debris had been so bad that LEO was impassible then it would been destroyed long before.

Also the debris in LEO will eventually decay and re-enter just due to residual air drag at those orbital heights - meaning that in a couple of decades at most the increase in collision risks will significantly be reduced.

And France has one big advantage in that they may very well have an intact satellite manufacturer - i.e. Cannes Mandelieu Space Center in Cannes has been making satellites for quite a while - i.e. the satellite division of Aerospatiale - so that would give the French most likely the last intact satellite manufacturing plant in the world and a launch facility that they could use as well - the question is how much of their facilities are still in one piece along with engineers and technicians

I think higher orbits were for example the French would place an INTEL satellite would be at lest risk from debris due to their being less junk at that altitude.

[.45cultist]

The impact of EMP would be felt more among the younger digital generations. Something to stress in role-playing T2013 or later timelines. If I run a game for my nephews again, I'll have to have my map protractor as an aid.

[rcaf_777]

Well since no one is going to ask, I going too. Why is it that the intro in Satellite down contradict the downing of DP 201?

And why dose the downing of DP 201 contradict the rest of the Twilight 2000 Version 1 Timeline?

[bobcat]

Originally Posted by .45cultist

There is an uneven trend to correct the reliance on digital navigation. Not just the military, but civil aviation as well. Uneven because the U.S. started with aviation and armor. 11B are personal initiative of the training nco's and officers. This was from discussions, reading various articles and is by no means "scientific".

very uneven in aviation with GPS based systems replacing older systems for most air traffic control systems. not to get int specifics(you can google all of this and there's even a few defcon talks on the subject you can watch on youtube) but most commercial aircraft now have a built in guidance and collision avoidance system that is driven almost entirely off of GPS data.

[Legbreaker]

Originally Posted by rcaf_777

Well since no one is going to ask, I going too. Why is it that the intro in Satellite down contradict the downing of DP 201?

And why dose the downing of DP 201 contradict the rest of the Twilight 2000 Version 1 Timeline?

How does it do that?

[rcaf_777]

Page 4

"Now, during the height of the war, just about every satellite on both sides was knocked down or rendered worthless junk."

And on Page 5

But due to some damage from America's space-born anti satellite system and lack of good ground signal communication, it crashed off the coast of Mexico in the Gulf of California.

So ever other Satellite is worthless junk except for America's space-born anti satellite system which is in orbit and knocked out DP 201

Funny how it could knock a satellite but not a ICBM missile, hmmm wasn't that the point of SDI?

[StainlessSteelCynic]

You seem to have missed the point.
The text refers to the American anti-SATELLITE system and NOT the anti-missile system.

[rcaf_777]

if you say so but SDI came first and then it's research was applied latter to anti satellite warfare. So if you shoot a orbiting satellite traveling around 6000-7000 miles per hour, why couldn't it shoot a missile out of the sky?

You find some pictures of how the system was to work here

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/C...:Space_weapons

There is also a chart on how high a EMP wave can travel upwards

http://royal.pingdom.com/2010/03/23/...now-about-gps/

[bobcat]

Originally Posted by rcaf_777

if you say so but SDI came first and then it's research was applied latter to anti satellite warfare. So if you shoot a orbiting satellite traveling around 6000-7000 miles per hour, why couldn't it shoot a missile out of the sky?

simple a satellite is a single target, a MIRV in post-boost phase is at least a dozen targets plus decoys. given the scale of the TDM it is easy to see how such systems can be overwhelmed especially considering the effects of previous intercepts, opposing ASAT/SDI systems, hostile network-based attacks, and our dear friend Murphey.

[StainlessSteelCynic]

Plus, you know, general and special relativity...

A satellite targeting another satellite in orbit is not travelling very fast relative to the other satellite because they are both travelling at roughly the same speeds (and the speeds are irrelevant for this purpose as long as they are roughly the same).
It's the same sort of thing if two cowboys on horseback were trying to shoot each other - relative to each other, they aren't moving particularly fast but relative to someone standing still, they're both moving too fast to get an accurate shot at.
This is what applies to a satellite trying to shoot down in incoming ICBM. Relative to the ICBM, the satellite is practically standing still.

[.45cultist]

Originally Posted by bobcat

very uneven in aviation with GPS based systems replacing older systems for most air traffic control systems. not to get int specifics(you can google all of this and there's even a few defcon talks on the subject you can watch on youtube) but most commercial aircraft now have a built in guidance and collision avoidance system that is driven almost entirely off of GPS data.

I think that the powers that be decided to settle on teaching the old stuff to show what to do when the guidance and positioning devices fail, depriving the crews of the GPS data. Also malfunctioning systems are accidently rotated back onto aircraft. This happened to my dad, the FAA told him to personally take a hammer the the auto pilot in question.
It would be quite a scenario involving armor guys to have these fail in a campaign. An old timer NPC might be needed to instruct PC's in the old style.

[Targan]

Originally Posted by bobcat

simple a satellite is a single target, a MIRV in post-boost phase is at least a dozen targets plus decoys. given the scale of the TDM it is easy to see how such systems can be overwhelmed especially considering the effects of previous intercepts, opposing ASAT/SDI systems, hostile network-based attacks, and our dear friend Murphey.

The ABM programs of both the US and Soviets during the 1980s were focused on shooting down ICBMs before they became sub-orbital.

Interesting article from earlier this week:

The Rise and Fall of the Soviet 'Death Star'

[unkated]

Originally Posted by Olefin

You don't really need massive quantities of resources to launch a rocket - the question is what kind of rocket and what payloads is it carrying

To launch a rocket? no.

To build the rocket parts - or even assemble a rocket from spare parts from different parts across the US? I have my doubts.

To assemble a satellite in post-1997 US? To calculate a useful orbit, launch (easy) and track that it hit orbit, and get useful data downloads or communication links (as payment for the effort)? I have graver doubts.

Originally Posted by Olefin

keep in mind that the timeline strongly suggests that the US didn't launch a bunch of their rockets that were in silos and the like -

Yes.

Originally Posted by Olefin

those rockets, at least those still operational,
would be perfect to use to get a communications or weather satellite into orbit

Not really. These are suborbital. They could probably be repurposed to get a smaller package (satellite) into a stable LEO. To launch into a useful GSO (GeoSynchronous Orbit) where the satellite would stay overhead and provide useful weather comverage over a large chunk of earth or a while? No. And therefore probably not worth the effort. LEO commo satellites are only useful in a constellation; teh lower the orbit, the more needed for coverage.

Uncle Ted