Your thoughts on the (cannon) Presidential line of succession?

[comped]

Hey!

I'm wondering if you guys have a different timeline for presidential succession in your games, then that HW presented?

As a refreshing:

1. President Tanner killed during takeoff accident on KNEECAP during TDM
2. VP Pembleton killed during direct hit missile strike on WH (also during TDM).
3. US without a president for 22 hours.
4. Speaker of the House Munson inaugurated after 22 hours (or so) of no president.
5. Munson suffers nervous breakdown, and is relieved.
6. Former Secretary of State (Munson's successor) suffers heart failure.
7. Former Secretary of Energy (Sec. of State's successor) commits suicide
8. No longer an operation CLS, no attempt was made to locate successor.
9. Rump Congress elects John Boward President.

Would this really have happened if such a event were to happen today? Even after 9/11 and all the COOP that happened afterword? Never mind, was this even remotely possible happenings in the 1980's? Does it even make sense? Not to get into the whole "rump congress" issue, but would they even have the legal authority to even conduct legislative activity (like appoint a new president)? Why wouldn't they follow Munson's declaration of marshal law? And wouldn't what's left of the line of succession continue? (If we wanted to be actually factual to the IRL line, it'd be the President pro tempore of the Senate after Munson, Treasury Secretary after State, Defense after Treasury, and on down the line. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_...#Current_order That link is to the actual line of succession) Did GDW simply not research such an important matter? Or are we left to assume that numbers 3, 5-13, 15-17 are all dead/incapacitated? And wouldn't there be a plan to find the SOH BEFORE 22 hours elapses?

[mikeo80]

IIRC, the only example we have of 1980's Presidential replacement was when Ronald Reagan was shot. Legally, George HW Bush was next in line. Alexander Haig made an ASS of himself by declaring "He was in charge." Yes, he was in the "War Room" of the White House. But GHWB was easily available and connected within a few minutes.

My $0.02

Mike

[comped]

Originally Posted by mikeo80

IIRC, the only example we have of 1980's Presidential replacement was when Ronald Reagan was shot. Legally, George HW Bush was next in line. Alexander Haig made an ASS of himself by declaring "He was in charge." Yes, he was in the "War Room" of the White House. But GHWB was easily available and connected within a few minutes.

My $0.02

Mike

Agreed. I should have said '90's (because that's when it happened, in timeline), but since it was written in the '80's, it still kinda fits. To be a little hard on GDW, there's a better line of succession for when the president goes in for surgery, then when T2K had a nuclear war. Wouldn't you think that, even without the internet, they could have looked that up?

[kato13]

The way GDW wrote the loss of ALL viable candidates would not have happened in real life. Munsun would have promoted the 1st, 2nd or 3rd deputies for any dead cabinet members to secretary. As they have already been approved by the Senate they would now be in the line of succession.

This is not a new post 9/11 law, but the scenario was confirmed shortly after then during interviews with a 1st deputy who had not yet been promoted. They confirmed that they would be in the line of succession. Given they way it is structured something like 60 people would all have to die to have NO ONE to fill the role of president.

The biggest potential I see for a controversy is the promotion of a deputy when a secretary is not actually dead, but as Secretaries serve at the whim of the president, I see these claims dissolving quickly.

[comped]

That still leaves the question of why GDW skipped so many people in the line of succession. Was that due to lack of research? Or was there something more to it that was left unpublished?

[kato13]

Originally Posted by comped

That still leaves the question of why GDW skipped so many people in the line of succession. Was that due to lack of research? Or was there something more to it that was left unpublished?

My assumption was that the rest of the basic list was dead.

Edit.

But that is really hard to swallow. Cheney was in a bunker for weeks after 9/11. In the GDW world nukes had been flying for months. SLBMs had been used in Europe and the Far East (assumed). And in a US where 48% of pre war americans are alive in 2000 you have a 85% causality rate among the most protected people in the US??

[rcaf_777]

Originally Posted by comped

Hey!

I'm wondering if you guys have a different timeline for presidential succession in your games, then that HW presented?

As a refreshing:

1. President Tanner killed during takeoff accident on KNEECAP during TDM
2. VP Pembleton killed during direct hit missile strike on WH (also during TDM).
3. US without a president for 22 hours.
4. Speaker of the House Munson inaugurated after 22 hours (or so) of no president.
5. Munson suffers nervous breakdown, and is relieved.
6. Former Secretary of State (Munson's successor) suffers heart failure.
7. Former Secretary of Energy (Sec. of State's successor) commits suicide
8. No longer an operation CLS, no attempt was made to locate successor.
9. Rump Congress elects John Boward President.

Would this really have happened if such a event were to happen today? Even after 9/11 and all the COOP that happened afterword?

What I don't get is on Thursday, November 27 1997, the Soviet Union launches a surprise first strike against targets in the United States. Guess what it's a long weekend who from the Cabinet, Congress, White House, Judges, Defense ect is going to be working? The Pres and VP? no way there away with families, some might be in the WH but won't Pres VP or the designated survivor. Same goes for congress, they closed shop IRL on 11 Nov 97. The US has had 48 years to prepare for war with the Soviet Union, do you really think let their guard down once war was declare so do think that Executive Order 12656 of November 18, 1988 would come onto play?

https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Executive_Order_12656

BTW National Emergency Airborne Command Post (NEACP) (often pronounced "kneecap") designed to survive an EMP with systems intact but that for another time

[Legbreaker]

...a long weekend during the second year of a global war that just keeps getting bigger. Pretty sure not that many in positions of authority are getting many days off...

[rcaf_777]

Originally Posted by Legbreaker

...a long weekend during the second year of a global war that just keeps getting bigger. Pretty sure not that many in positions of authority are getting many days off...

What would make sense except that there people working at

Mount Weather Emergency Operations Center
Raven Rock Mountain Complex (RRMC)
Presidential Emergency Facilities
Cheyenne Mountain Complex
Olney Federal Support Center
The National Warning System (NAWAS)
Post Attack Command and Control System (PACCS)
Worldwide Military Command and Control System

So there people working but not in Washington, Congress and Pres and VP are are still elected officials and still duties to do outside of Washington. And with the threat of nuclear war why keep all your eggs in one basket.

[Enfield]

Originally Posted by rcaf_777

What would make sense except that there people working at

Mount Weather Emergency Operations Center
Raven Rock Mountain Complex (RRMC)
Presidential Emergency Facilities
Cheyenne Mountain Complex
Olney Federal Support Center
The National Warning System (NAWAS)
Post Attack Command and Control System (PACCS)
Worldwide Military Command and Control System

So there people working but not in Washington, Congress and Pres and VP are are still elected officials and still duties to do outside of Washington. And with the threat of nuclear war why keep all your eggs in one basket.

I think that government would be reasonably well distributed. There are questions of course as to how good communications, lines of supply and infrastructure could be maintained. I've found sources on this point to be contradictory, forcing the GM to choose what he finds most interesting and consistent. Since this is about the succession, though, I'll try to come back to the point.

I found this site has a very good idea.

1. The Speaker of the House is appointed President after the deaths of the President and the Vice-President. (You don't even need to explain this to nitpickers, you simply have to have a devastating nuclear attack and have them go incommunicado. In the novel/film this campaign apppears to be partly based on, the Mt. Weather shelter gets hit, as I recall, and the President's plane takes a hit and goes down as well)

2. The Speaker decides to appoint the Director of the CIA as his Vice-President as per the Tom Clancy series, which I found a fun idea. It doesn't matter if this is actually what happens, all that is necessary is for the appointment to not be able to be ratified by Congress, due to a nuclear war.

3. Now, on the site I linked, it follows the same canon exactly with name changes; a Chairman of the Joint Chiefs refuses to recognize the appointment.

I thought it would be interesting if instead of #3, there is another surviving member of the government in the order of succession, doesn't matter who, who gets backed by enough of the military to form something like Milgov. It could, for instance, be a Cabinet Secretary, President Pro Tem of the Senate, etc. I think, however, that this would be downright confusing, even maddening, to many people who just want the government to get on with it. Which is part of why I like it.

[Olefin]

The big issue in general with the line of succession in the game is that the Speaker of the House would not have been allowed to be incommunicado like that in time of war. The US military has communications designed to survive under nuclear attack - they would have had people with him at all times. Or they would have immediately moved to number four on the list - especially with the country under nuclear attack. Any lack of ability to communicate with him and he would have been assumed lost and right down the list they go.

The game in general has the US military and govt act in ways that would never happen in real life - and the succession issues in the game definitely DO NOT dovetail with actual procedures.

in other words the head of the Senate would have been made president and Munson would have missed his opportunity - if you go by real world figures Trent Lott gets sworn in as President (he was the majority leader of the Senate in 1997 IRL)