Where would of the Soviet Offensive would have hit...

[Abbott Shaull]

Okay here something I have wonder. Where would the Soviet and Pact Forces had hit in 2000 if it wasn't for the US XI Corps and Third German Army limited offensive that led to the destruction of the 5th US Division.

They had plenty on their plate. From attacking the NATO in the South, to pacifying some Poles, Czech, and I am sure others that weren't playing by the Soviet rules at this time.

They had 4th Guard Tank Army with all that stock of fuel. The 22nd Cavalry Army which probably would of been used in supporting attack along the northern flank if they did pushed into southern Germany. Even the 10th Guard Tank Division of the 3rd Shock Army which after having been stripped to re-equip and re-inforce other units had gotten a real lousy replacement of 3000 troops that they couldn't speak too with several very burned out T-55.

Take in the fact that it seems the 3rd Shock Army had been guarding large supply depots....

Could the Soviets moved said units without NATO realizing it until they got blindsided. Much like the 5th Mechanized Division was when the 4th Guard Tank Army hit them in force.

Abbott.

[Raellus]

Based on the units I've plotted on my summer 2000 map, the Soviets have an overwhelming manpower and AFV advantage on the Berlin-Cottbus axis. There are only a couple of British divisions in their way, and most of them are situated well behind the front lines (west of Berlin).

http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?ie=UT...1,9.854736&z=7

Also, the Soviets have an army in western Byelorussia (the 9th Guards Tank Army) with 9000 men and 48 tanks which could be used to support offensive operations in Poland. This leaves the 1st Byelorussian Army HQ (86th AAB & 7th Guards Tank Army w/ 5900 men and 2 tanks) to perform internal security duties in Byelorussia and deal with the mutinous 3rd GTD.

[Abbott Shaull]

Yes, but Berlin by this time is much like Warsaw. In Ruins, not much to gain there. So what would they be planning....

[Adm.Lee]

Since the American forces in Germany are arguably the most "fragile" (no replacement troops or equipment easily available), I would think they might want to hit them first.

Or, maybe one could hit the British hard enough that whatever British government remains would call them home?

Either way, the strategic goal would be to weaken NATO as much as possible with this asset. If NATO is weakened enough, maybe some kind of cease-fire can be arranged on terms advantageous to the Pact.

IMO, the best deal for the USSR would be to quit fighting on the terms they had-- the Germans are on their side of the Oder, and are in no shape to drive across Poland for a generation or so.

[Webstral]

Without addressing the likelihood of such a plan, I propose that the Soviets might have been planning to keep 4th Guards Tank Army as a strategic reserve. They were having more and more trouble with units not following orders, etc. Perhaps 4th Guards Tank Army was intended to act as a fire brigade, moving from place to place to knock down local warlords, marauders, rebels, and anyone generally not on board with Stavka's thinking. The Soviets have long been obsessed with internal security. The internal security situation was breaking down badly after 1998. The creation of a strong, mobile reserve in Belarus would have enabled the Soviets to move quickly and decisively against any of the numerous internal threats in Poland, Belarus, the western Ukraine, Lithuania, western Russia, or Slovakia, as well as parrying any moves by NATO.

Webstral

[Cdnwolf]

In Mediterranean Cruise we have the source of the fuel used by the 4'th Tank Army...

With the strategic exchanges of late 1997, the Ploesti oil fields
of Romania were the subject of some nuclear strikes, but for
reasons not completely understood, the refineries and oil production
facilities were not completely destroyed and were beginning
to become operational again by mid-2000. By the fall, these
fields had produced enough petroleum to fuel a last Soviet
counteroffensive in Europe (the one referred to in the basic game
which destroyed the U.S. 5th Mechanized Infantry Division),
which brought the active phase of the war to a messy
conclusion.

ALSO NOTE:

The only major Soviet force remaining in Europe after December
of 2000 was the Danube Front of the Southwestern TVD
(Teatr Voennikh Deystivy, Theater of Military Operations), consisting
of the 38th Army and the 3rd Guards Tank Army. Located
in the Bucharest-Ploesti area, these forces are currently making
use of one of the few refinery complexes in the world not
destroyed by the war to provide fuel. These two armies represent
the last viable tank forces in Europe.

[Abbott Shaull]

That is my thought as it wasn't suppose to attack NATO. I think it was more of unit that would be threaten of use if someone didn't follow orders.

It goes with Soviet tradition to have large mobile reserve behind the front for clean up. I am sure for couple years after WWII they spent several weeks mopping up the mess that they inherited after WWII.

The Northern Ukraine is about where you would want one decent size mobile Army that could be used to respond in Western Soviet Union, Eastern Europe, and possibly toward Iran. At the time there were many threats to the Soviet Union and Stavka. With the number of the Divisional commanders realizing that any further offensive action weather it was in Europe or the Middle East wouldn't change much except maybe more lives of troops they needed. For reinforcements and resupply from Stavka were few and far in between. Remember the ones who opposing the NATO units probably didn't see neither since sometime in 1998 from the Soviet Union.