China's Carrier Killer

[Raellus]

Although this doesn't really fit into the v1.0 or v2.2 timelines, it could have implications for the T2013 timeline and/or some of your homebrewed campaign settings.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100805/...carrier_killer

Could this weapon system- and the growing size and capabilities of China's blue water navy- indicate a subtle shift in the balance of military power in the Pacific?

[jester]

Short answer,

YES!!!!

Submarines and Cariers along with the capability to defend against the same is what it means to be a big power broker in the world. It not only brings military capability, but also prestiege. Oh yeah and the whole power projection concept as well.

Another issue as well. China is also building its brownwater and gator navy and amphib capability. Another aspect of force projection.

And this is something that is already being down in small bites as they break out and assert control in Asian waters. They are getting bolder and bolder too.

Another aspect, they have established trade amd economic assets overseas, the Panama Canal, Long Beach Ca. Developing oil fields off shore between Cuba and Fla <Think the recent Gulf disaster was bad. China and Cuba have an abismal enviromental track record, wait until they screw up there.> Other interests in and off the coast of West Africa, deals with Iran. <Can't wait until they get involved in that nightmare. Maybe their ships can get a taste of the 1989 oil tanker issues.> And asserting claims to mineral, island and potential offshore gas and oil resources in the Philipine Sea and other areas in the region.

Huge carriers and submarines are used for dominance, force projection and political tools or going to WAR! It is interesting to see China and India with massive populations developing these systems. It is also interesting to note that those two nations/civilizations/cultures are also pretty resource poor.

[Eddie]

China and it's capabilities, carriers and navies have been discussed at length over on the 2013 forums. In non-rules specific manners.

Here are some links for you:

http://93gamesstudio.com/forum/viewt...hp?f=10&t=2761

http://93gamesstudio.com/forum/viewt...hp?f=27&t=2731

http://93gamesstudio.com/forum/viewt...hp?f=29&t=2722

Most of it is pretty good stuff, but there are some instances where myself and one of the posters get into some pretty heated posting. Ignore that tone if you want to, but it's generally lots of good information about this topic.

[RN7]

Land based anti-ship guided missiles have been around for some time, but land based high velocity ballistic missiles with this capability would mark a seismic shift in the balance of naval warfare.

Building a weapon to specificaly target a US Carrier battle group is probably the most provacative act of hostility against the American military machine other than building a nuclear delivery system designed to level Washington DC and New York City from the Gobi Desert.

Chinese military technology, particularly in regards to aerospace is at best at least a generation behind the very latest that America can produce. I think I would question China's technological capability to produce this type of missile on her own. Although China's military and technological capabilities have grown rapidly over the past decade or so, China's latest combat aircraft designs and even her space programe has the fingerprints of other countries in it, notably Russia. With Russian help it might be possibly to build a weapons system of this type, but if Russia is helping China to build this type of weapon then why do the Russians not already have or plan to have them as well?

Also would provoking an arms race with a military and technological superpower be a wise move for China, particulary one who is also its largest trading partner and the largest foreign investor in Chinese economy?

[Mohoender]

Originally Posted by RN7

Building a weapon to specificaly target a US Carrier battle group is probably the most provacative act of hostility against the American military machine other than building a nuclear delivery system designed to level Washington DC and New York City from the Gobi Desert.

Not at all. It would actually be the wisest move and the less provocative one as the given missile doesn't threaten US naval power in any way. So far it seems to be strictly defensive and I would think it to be a fair answer to US naval power. It simply deny US capability to get the upper hand if US attacks China (very unlikely but who knows).

If US thinks it to be provocative, I would suspect the US administration to develop plans to attack China. I don't think it possible. What would be provocative, however, would be for China to sell such missile to Iran (future will tell). Of course, they will develop a version to be carried on ships but when this will be done I'm sure US will have developed the proper countermeasure.

Of course media will say it to be provocative (that will boost their own market) but if US administration say so, it will become amusing. I love the idea of US taking over the role of former Soviet Union.

[Mohoender]

Originally Posted by RN7

Chinese military technology, particularly in regards to aerospace is at best at least a generation behind the very latest that America can produce. I think I would question China's technological capability to produce this type of missile on her own.

I love these kind of assumptions on the side of Americans or Europeans (civilians). Most of the technology your are talking of is assembled with components made in China. Still, we keep thinking that the Chinese are too stupid to assemble it themselves. Hopefully for us, US administration don't share your idea. Look at their released report on China if you ever have a doubt. About arm race, don't worry, it never ended and simply slew down between something like 1992-2001.

http://www.defense.gov/pubs/pdfs/070...ower-final.pdf
http://www.defense.gov/pubs/china.html

[Mohoender]

I was just thinking about that China thing and here is a theory.

Lets look at US first.
- Ahead of everyone when it comes to aircraft: generation 5 while all contenders have generation 4 and 4.5.
- Slightly superior when it comes to ground forces. I think of the US army to be the best in the world but I'm not sure that its military gear is so superior. M1 Abrams demonstrated their superiority but, so far, only against outdated equipments and tactics. They also showed several weeknesses in Irak. Then, US army changed but the other did that too. Merkavas also proved that tanks can be very vulnerable to footmen (Infantry queen of the field again). The best advantage to US is their wonderful professiency when it comes to combine their forces.
- Absolutly dominant when it come to the sea. The carrier fleet has no match and the US aircraft carriers are the most magnificent war machine you can imagine.

Lets look at China.
- Quickly converting its aircraft fleet to generation 4 and 4.5 with a huge amount of older aircrafts in reserve. It could get generation 5 within ten years. In the meantime, the country acquired a top of the line air defense by colaborating with Russia and France.
- On the ground, they have enough manpower to stop anyone. They did already in the past. Their ground forces are also modernizing really fast.
- At sea (their main weak point) they are a match for any conventional fleet but no match at all for US carrier task forces. And such task force would switch the ground and air balance.

A few years ago, China succesfully shot down a satelite. Such capability seriously threatens the GPS system over the region (and with a weakened electronic US is not that much a threat). Then, for thirty years, China acquired several carriers and certainly studied them. We all expect China to built it's own carrier soon but what if we were all wrong? What if Chinese planners had come to the obvious conclusion that challenging US naval power is a waste of time and ressources? What if they had jumped to the conclusion that the best way to answer the threat of US carriers is to negate that advantage to US?

I have no clue about the chinese missile capability but if it is capable of putting any US carrier out of commission, it seriously changes the face of the world. One thing I'm convinced is that, with the time they had and the carriers the put they hand on, they have enough in their game to successfully conceive such weapon.

As a result, China doesn't become a threat to US but US is no longer a threat to China. In my opinion, this option could be the best choice. I could even suppose the next step to be an increasing collaboration between China and US on the international scene. If US is no longer a threat to China, China no longer has a need to systematicaly oppose US at the diplomatic level.

[Raellus]

Originally Posted by Mohoender

As a result, China doesn't become a threat to US but US is no longer a threat to China.

IMPO, this is a very sound and concise assessment of the strategic military tilt between the world's current superpowers.

China has for decades been making qualitative improvements to its military- a military designed to fight a large-scale conventional war- while the U.S. has been slimming down its military and molding it to fight in smaller scale counterinsurgency campaigns. If this trend continues, China will be prepared to fight the U.S. in a conventional war (Taiwan, Korea?) while the U.S. will not be prepared to fight the Chinese. We're probably still a decade or two away from that day, but it's a somewhat worrisome trend.

I too am flabbergasted by the Western World's dismissal of Chinese military capabilities and potential. The U.S. had a very similar attitude about Japan prior to WWII and it cost us dearly.

[RN7]

Not at all. It would actually be the wisest move and the less provocative one as the given missile doesn't threaten US naval power in any way. So far it seems to be strictly defensive and I would think it to be a fair answer to US naval power. It simply deny US capability to get the upper hand if US attacks China (very unlikely but who knows).

The "missile doesn't threaten US power in any way", yet "I would think it to be a fair answer to US naval power". Well if its a fair answer to US naval power it must be of some threat, because if it wasn't it would be fairly useless do you not think?

If US thinks it to be provocative, I would suspect the US administration to develop plans to attack China. I don't think it possible.

I'm sure the US administration has many simulated plans to attack China.

What would be provocative, however, would be for China to sell such missile to Iran (future will tell).

It would probably lead to an end to US-Chinese trade and the collapse of the Chinese economy.

Of course, they will develop a version to be carried on ships but when this will be done I'm sure US will have developed the proper countermeasure.

The ship would be of some size to carry ballistic missile, perphaps the Russians gave them blueprints for the Kirov Class battlecruiser. And if the US put ABM systems on its ships I don't think Russia would be to happy.

Of course media will say it to be provocative (that will boost their own market) but if US administration say so, it will become amusing. I love the idea of US taking over the role of former Soviet Union.

I haven't currently read anywhere about the US complaining about this weapon system, which probably means the US military doesn't rate it seriously.

I love these kind of assumptions on the side of Americans or Europeans (civilians). Most of the technology your are talking of is assembled with components made in China. Still, we keep thinking that the Chinese are too stupid to assemble it themselves. Hopefully for us, US administration don't share your idea. Look at their released report on China if you ever have a doubt. About arm race, don't worry, it never ended and simply slew down between something like 1992-2001.

So tell me where did I say the Chinese are too stupid then? Also where did I mention Europeans, and what part of an F-22 is made in China? Also wasn't the same argument about western military components being made in Japan banded about 20 years ago, and how dependent on Japan did western militaries become?

I was just thinking about that China thing and here is a theory.
Lets look at US first.

- Ahead of everyone when it comes to aircraft: generation 5 while all contenders have generation 4 and 4.5.

Well ahead of everyone else at the moment, as the only 5th generation aircraft flying is an F-22 and the only outside of technology demonstraters that is likely to seriously come into service over the next decade is the F-35.

- Slightly superior when it comes to ground forces. I think of the US army to be the best in the world but I'm not sure that its military gear is so superior. M1 Abrams demonstrated their superiority but, so far, only against outdated equipments and tactics. They also showed several weeknesses in Irak. Then, US army changed but the other did that too. Merkavas also proved that tanks can be very vulnerable to footmen (Infantry queen of the field again). The best advantage to US is their wonderful professiency when it comes to combine their forces.

Many NATO and developed militaries have ground forces that use equipment that approaches or is equal to that of the US Army/Marines, and some are better trained. Britain's Challenger 2 tank for example has superior armour protection to the Abrams. The US Army and Marines just have far more very good equipment and well trained soldiers than anyone else, and have an air mobility capability and an air and sea logistical capability that is vastly superior to any other country.

- Absolutly dominant when it come to the sea. The carrier fleet has no match and the US aircraft carriers are the most magnificent war machine you can imagine.

Britain's nuclear hunter killer submarine fleet is highly regarded by the US Navy, and if fully operational would make even the US Navy think twice about where it sent her carriers and ships, but fortunately Britain is a close ally.

Lets look at China.
- Quickly converting its aircraft fleet to generation 4 and 4.5 with a huge amount of older aircrafts in reserve. It could get generation 5 within ten years. In the meantime, the country acquired a top of the line air defense by colaborating with Russia and France.

So what 4.5 generation aircraft does China have or is planning to deploy? The only 4th generation aircraft that I know that China has are the J-10, the J-11 and the FC-1/JF-17. The FC-1/JF-17 was developed with Pakistan is far from a cutting edge combat aircraft. The J-10 was developed with Israeli and Russian assistance, and the J-11 is a development of the Russian Su-27SK. I think the suggestion that 5th generation Chinese combat aircraft coming online over the next decade is wishful thinking. Also I'm aware that China has bought Russian S-300 series long ranged SAM's and has produced them under license, but what imput has France made to Chinese air defences?

- On the ground, they have enough manpower to stop anyone. They did already in the past. Their ground forces are also modernizing really fast.

Well its never been tested as nobody wants to invade China.

- At sea (their main weak point) they are a match for any conventional fleet but no match at all for US carrier task forces. And such task force would switch the ground and air balance.

They'd be sent to the bottom of the sea very quickly.

A few years ago, China succesfully shot down a satelite etc

The whole debate about the missle system in question and the China's anti-satellite capabilities seems to be based on variations of the DF-21 missile. Development of this missile started in the 1960's, and although sytematic upgrades and the incorporation of new technology have made this missile far more capable than originally designed, the technology is not new or some miraculous breakthrough by China. The fact that China has achieved this shows how far China has progressed in the past few decades, but by looking at Chinese aerospace thechnology based on its air defence and aircraft designs it would be hard to avoid the conclusion that they are being assisted by other countries or utilising foreign technology.

[Matt Wiser]

Actually, no, to Raellus' original question, and here's why:

1) Targeting: The ChiComs (as I prefer to call them) have no real targeting for the weapon: no Bear-D equivalent and no RORSAT (Radar Ocean Recon Satellite).

2) Testing: So far from unclassified sources (Aviation Leak, Navy Times, etc.) the ChiComs have not tested the weapon against a sea target. And that would also include an honest test of the system against a moving target.

3) Guidance and warhead: Getting a ballistic missile with a terminal radar guidance to work was only done once, AFIK, and that was Pershing-II, against known target locations. A carrier is moving at 25-30 knots, and once launch-alert goes out, the carrier group will be moving at flank speed to open the distance from the intended target location. As for warhead, you don't generally load HE on a ballistic missile. It would be nuclear in this case. Which leads to the following:

The Soviets had a system under development in the '70s for the anti-carrier mission to be launched from Yankee-class SSBNs: it was designated by the USN as the SS-NX-13. A SLBM with a 1 MT warhead and range of about 400 miles. Ivan couldn't get the missile's terminal guidance to work, the boomer captains weren't happy about getting in close to a carrier group with the ASW coming at them, and there was a little thing called esclation. U.S policy at the time was that if tac nukes were used against U.S. ships at sea, nuclear retaliation against Soviet naval targets ashore would follow. Even a failed ChiCom attack with a nuclear DF-21 against a carrier group would lead to some kind of retaliation "in kind". The SS-NX-13 was cancelled in the late '70s, btw.

Finally, 4): AEGIS. With AEGIS-equipped ships having the anti-TBM mission along with Fleet Defense, one may assume that carriers will have protection from such TBM attack. Not to mention other defenses, such as EW, decoys-they're called "rubber duckies"-with radar reflectors, chaff, and close-in missiles such as RAM and RIM-156.

So, nice try. Looks good on parades and alarmist news articles. Other than that....

[Dog 6]

http://www.strategypage.com/htmw/hti.../20100113.aspx

http://www.strategypage.com/htmw/hticbm/20080713.aspx

It's now up for sale like most of china's weapons

[RN7]

It's an implied threat. The Chinese have long been the poor cousins in the superpower world, and now they're flexing their muscles a bit more. They want their piece of the world dominance pie. This is just a very small part of their plan to get it. I often tell people that in 25 years or so, the US will be the no. 2 superpower -- China will be No. 1. That may or may not be true, but they're definitely beginning to unwrap and want more of a say over what goes on in the world. Now that the Russians are no longer a superpower and they've basically subverted out economy, there's not much we can do about it.

There are a number of reasons why China will not be the leading superpower in 25 years time, most of which relate to why America is currently a superpower and why it will be very difficult for China to ever really match it.

A superpower does not only have to have military and political influence, but must also have economic, technological and cultural influence. Besides America the only country which can claim to have been a superpower on the aforementioned criteria over the past two hundred years has been Britain and the British Empire, as even the Soviet Union at its height was not a match for America in most of these areas.

Most people look at China’s rapid economic growth over the past 15 years to explain why China will soon match and overtake America as the world’s most powerful country. However the statistics are misleading. China’s recent growth in manufacturing has not greatly affected America’s position in world share of manufacturing over the past decade, and has far more affected other Asian countries and Europe, particularly the position of Japan in world manufacturing share. Also for China to match America’s economy it would have to grow by 10-11% every year over the next 25 years, which is higher than the current 9-10% rate, while America’s would have to grow at only 3% per year over 25 years which is a lot lower than the world average. Therefore China would have to achieve in 25 years what it took America to do in 90 years from 1945, and even then if measured in total GDP the per capita income of China would be only one quarter of America’s. All of this doesn’t take into account recessions, volatile world markets and political instability of which China is more vulnerable than America to. However some ignore total GDP statistics when looking at China, and discuss PPP GDP. By that criteria China’s economy is measured in much larger size, and would be the second largest in the world after America. However PPP statistics are basically the simplest tool used to measure a nations economic size, basically multiplying national income by the population and it is inaccurate and tells nothing of the size of the total economy, and international trade is conducted in nominal terms. Also America industry is far less dependent on exports than most other industrialised countries and China, largely due the fact that the US domestic market is so big that domestic companies don’t have to rely on exports to make large profits.

Some also point to the weak dollar as a reason why America will soon loose lose economic dominance. However the US dollar comprises 65% of global currency reserves, while the second highest share is that of the Euro at just 25%. Furthermore, the Euro is not rising as a percentage of total reserves, despite the EU and Eurozone adding many new member nations over the past decade. The Chinese Yuan represents under 2% of world reserves and China itself stockpiles US dollars. Also if America declining in financial dominance why is the stock markets of New York as big as Tokyo, London, Shanghai, Hong Kong, Frankfurt and Paris combined?

Also America is a liberal democracy and free market economy. It’s not perfect and like many other countries has its flaws, but China is communist country run by a politburo, and is not a free or a free thinking country. If you criticise the government in China you end up in prison, and China’s human rights record is appalling. Ask the Tibetans how free they are.

Another argument used to define China’s rise is its growing military capability. Currently America is unmatchable in almost every sphere of military power, the Russians still match it in nuclear weapons but nowhere else. No other country currently is even near having the ability to project military power despite military spending being only 3% of its economy which is a lower proportion than many other countries. China would have to multiply its defence spending by a factor of seven or eight annually for the next decade to even come near America, and unlike America which funds its defence spending almost effortlessly, this level of defence spending would bankrupt China. Also China would have to take over the role of global policeman which America does despite all its critics. The left-wingers, the pseudo intellectuals, Islamic fundamentalist and various people and countries with an axe to grind against the Yankee Imperialist love to hate America, and love to condemn it over its shameful past such as slavery, segregation, the treatment of Native Americans, and political interference in Latin America. But when some evil dictator or regime threatens or invades another country or commits acts of genocide despite UN sanctions, who does the world look to send in the cavalry? Are the Chinese going to put themselves forward and take up this burden? If America donates money to humanitarian crisis for example in Africa people criticise America for not donating enough or doing enough, but who ever asks China?

Another measurement of a countries power could be the reputation of its education system and knowledge economy. There are about 30 American universities which are renowned the world over, Harvard, MIT, Yale, and Stanford etc etc. And of the rated top 20 in the world 17 are American, two of the other three are in England and the other one isn’t Chinese. America is the centre of gravity for all types of scientific research, 32% of the world in 2007 which is twice as much China and the entire EU combined. America is not just dominant in research but it is the world leader in the process to deliver innovations to the global marketplace. To displace America, China would have to be dominant in producing new inventions and corporations that are adopted by the market into daily lives were America has and remains the focus of most technological progress and new technologies and influential applications continue to emerge from American companies. Also of the top of my head I could name twenty American household brand names such as Coca Cola, McDonalds, IBM, Ford, Microsoft, Intel, Apple, Boeing, Xerox, Kodak, Google, Nike etc etc. I could also name quite a few European and Japanese brands, but I could not name one Chinese. One could say that the Chinese are merely emulating the Japanese and then the Koreans who were very successful in marketing their companies worldwide, but the Chinese have been at it for at least 15 years now and I cannot think of one brand name that I know is Chinese, and in fact I would say the dominance of American brand names has even grown over the past 15 years particularly in areas such as IT, computers and telecommunications where previously the Japanese were becoming a dominant force. Also in the entertainment industry; music and film, America absolutely dominates the world. In the film industry India is far bigger than China, and Britain is far more important and productive in music.

Also how many people want to immigrate to China and how many want to immigrate to America? Does China attract the best and brightest immigrants; in fact does it attract any immigrants? America has been importing people for centuries, and continues to do so in their millions, legally and illegally, while China has a net outflow of native born Chinese and many come to America.

Finally you could rate a countries power by its ambitions and accomplishments, and China’s ambitions were recently demonstrated by putting an astronaut into space. China is planning to send people to the moon over the next 15 years and even Mars by mid century. However China’s recent space achievements were greatly assisted by Russia and without Russian involvement I would say it would be doubtful that they could have put people into orbit let alone send them to the moon. It also counts on America not responding to a challenge to its domination in space activity. The last time that America was challenged in space it led to numerous space programs that totally eclipsed Soviet space activity and sent Neil Armstrong to the Moon, and that was 41 years ago!

[Mohoender]

Originally Posted by RN7

There are a number of reasons why China will not be the leading superpower in 25 years time, most of which relate to why America is currently a superpower and why it will be very difficult for China to ever really match it.

A superpower does not only have to have military and political influence, but must also have economic, technological and cultural influence. Besides America the only country which can claim to have been a superpower on the aforementioned criteria over the past two hundred years has been Britain and the British Empire, as even the Soviet Union at its height was not a match for America in most of these areas.

Interesting criteria to define a superpower (very post 1945) but really wrong in the same time. This would imply that US has been a superpower only between 1945-1990. Personnaly, I would consider that US became a superpower in the late 19th century and still is one.

US has not relied on its military until 1945. Nevertheless, no one could have challenged US by means of arms after 1880. In my poor opinion that made US the most civilized country from 1776 to 1945. Since 1990, I would give that title to Australia and Canada (I'll make friends).

US political influence was felt as early as 1854 with the forced opening of Japan to the world. It never stopped since that time. It reached a peak after ww2 and it is currently going down.

US economic weight, however, became felt only after 1914. It still is felt today but it is seriously challenged. By the way, strictly speaking, US economy is now second, behind that of EU (which is in no way a superpower, far from it).

US technology is not at all as influencial as it had been in the past. When I came back from US in 1993, I brought back a full suitcase of US technological gears. When I visited in 1998, US had nothing of interest to a European. In 2003, I thought about bringing technology with me to US. This might not last, however.

The cultural influence of US remain high but this is certainly where it looses ground the fastest. Germany is ahead in many ways and Asia as well.

IMPO, the future leading countries will be these capable of reducing their dependence on oil. China is on the run, EU as well (Germany may be leading, way ahead of anyone else). US certainly is on the run. For my part, I would not bury US too fast but I don't think it will ever take the position it once had.

[RN7]

Mo I'm off to bed but I'll reply later to your comments

[Mohoender]

Originally Posted by RN7

Mo I'm off to bed but I'll reply later to your comments

Sleep well, I didn't sleep last night and be dreaming all day.

[Dog 6]

well said RN7 !

[RN7]

It is a threat and not a threat. It is a threat as it could negate US capability to efficiently deploy a task force next to China but at the moment the only existing threat is that of US task forces. The goal of China (IMO) is not to threaten US in any way but to avoid being threaten by US. It is not a threat because it doesn't threaten US capability anywhere outside of seas close to China.

Well I think Matt has established that its not a threat.

I'm pretty sure they have some but I'm not convinced that US consider China a threat. In fact, I think that both countries will tighten their relations over the coming times.

Depends upon China's relationship with other countries, particularly its neighbours.

Someone else already said what I'm thinking. Actually, world economy would collapse.

No just China's, but it would lead to a worldwide recession.

Submarines could be enough. Then I don't think it to be planned.

Well they haven't been to successfull so far with their ballistic missile submarines.

Didn't say anything else. It doesn't mean that no one would be capable of making one. However, the only point of fielding a 5th generation aircraft would be to threaten US, what for?

Russia could if it had the money, Europe might if it pooled its resources, but not China on its own at the moment.

Did I say anything against the Royal Navy?

Well you did say " Absolutly dominant when it come to the sea", and I just thought I'd point out that the British nuclear submarine fleet would give the USN something to worry about, in fact a few other submarine fleets might as well.

Yes it was to great cost by the Japanese

Well were not talking about WW2. China has also had armed border disputes with the Soviet Union, India and Vietnam since 1945.

I disagree but that comes from a mistake on my part. I never thought of Chinese naval forces going very far from their coast.

Its not going be of much use to China if it wont go far from the Chinese coast when there is an enemy offshore.

What I'm thinking, however, is that China wants to treat with USA as equal. I think that the missile in question is their best option to achieve that.

I think the missile in question is a non starter and China has a long way to go before it will be equal with America.

[dylan]

Hi Matt,

I respect your right to your own opinion on this, and note the several good points you make. I'll just offer an alternative viewpoint, not that I expect you to agree and not looking to start a flamewar.

Matt believes the PRC does not have the sensor suite to target the ASBM. In fact China has been working just as hard on the sensor, and sensor-to-shooter links as they have on the missile itself (this isn't just for the ASBM, of course, as an ocean surveillance suite will be just as useful potentially for other forms of attack on US interveeners - cruise missiles, hypersonic strike missiles, CAVs, subs, UUAVs, etc). Rather than just take my word for it, for examples of the sensor effort, see
http://geimint.blogspot.com/2008/11/...bm-threat.html
http://thetaiwanlink.blogspot.com/20...zon-radar.html
and the more recent
http://geimint.blogspot.com/2010/05/...h-network.html
For RORSATs see "yaogan" which is, of course, described by the PRC as a civilian satellite series to be sure. In 2008 the PRC also launched a data relay satellite, which as you'll know expands their options.

Also search "china strategic uavs" to see the investment in developing Global Hawk type aircraft.

Matt asserts that the warhead must be nuclear. Quite the contrary. The warhead is far more likely to be some form of submunitions, or a penetrator, or EMP. See
http://geimint.blogspot.com/2009/04/...ery-corps.html
and scroll down to test locations to see the testing already down with these types of payloads. A mission kill on a carrier is far more important for PLA objectives in East Asia than starting 'global thermonuclear war'.

SS-NX-13 is an interesting story. Matt provides one interpretation,but I'd note another is that the system tested fine but was not seen as valuable enough to survive the arms control treaties of the 1970s - which limited all SSBNs regardless of range or purpose.

Anyway, just a few alternate interpretations, everyone is free to believe what they want.

[pmulcahy11b]

It's like I said -- it's an implied threat. Whether it really works or not isn't as important as whether we believe it might work. It's like with Gorbachev and Star Wars -- it wasn't anywhere near a reality, but Reagan made Gorbachev think it was real, and it's one part of what led to the end of the Cold War.

[Matt Wiser]

One assumes the weapon will work under certain circumstances; after all, that's the intel community's job-hope for the best, but assume the worst is possible and prepare accordingly. And you can bet the AEGIS program office is thinking up how best to use AEGIS ships to counter this system, should it be deployed. As for other countermeasures, such as snuffing ChiCom UAVs or patrol planes, killing UAVs at high altitude is also something AEGIS is capable of, and Hornets can splash any patrol planes, should that be necessary. It's also a general rule in the ballistic missile business that you don't put TNT equivalents on a long-range missile. SRBMs or some IRBMs (like those operated by India and Pakistan, Iran, or NK) actually have conventional or submunition warheads-airfields and other area targets are what they're intended for. But when you're dealing with a moving target, unless accurate targeting in the terminal phase is possible (and we never did that, AFIK from open source material), there's only one possible warhead choice, and that's nuclear. Which leads the ChiCom leadership to have to make a decision: Is it worth killing a carrier with DF-21, and having several mainland naval targets turned to radioactive deserts in retaliation (along with the suspected launch site)? Or do they tell the ChiCom Navy to try and do it the old-fashioned way, with submarines and land-based aircraft?

[Webstral]

Regarding intelligence on Chinese advanced systems, we should bear in mind that the Chinese are diligent students of Sun Tzu in general and deception warfare in particular. It’s probably safe to say that American intelligence-gathering is superior in some technical aspects, such as imagery and signals processing. It’s equally safe to say that the Chinese are well aware of our strengths. The most dangerous attitude the American intelligence community could have is the assumption that we know what we think we know. Hubris has laid low many great powers.

That much said, if there is deception at work it’s probably on the side of over-stating China’s state-of-the-art abilities. Sun Tzu observes that it’s easier to beat an enemy who is convinced he will lose. If we get worried about the survivability of our carriers, we’ll make an adjustment. If the Chinese can use deception operations to make us adjust to their liking, it hardly matters whether the new weapon works as advertised or not.


Webstral

[Targan]

Originally Posted by Webstral

Regarding intelligence on Chinese advanced systems, we should bear in mind that the Chinese are diligent students of Sun Tzu in general and deception warfare in particular. It’s probably safe to say that American intelligence-gathering is superior in some technical aspects, such as imagery and signals processing. It’s equally safe to say that the Chinese are well aware of our strengths. The most dangerous attitude the American intelligence community could have is the assumption that we know what we think we know. Hubris has laid low many great powers.

Well said.

Another thing to remember is that the Chinese government has massive amounts of money to throw around. Throw enough money at a technical problem and eventually you will see results.

I'm much more comfortable with the USA being the world's dominant power than China but the balance of power is already starting to shift. What concerns me is what the US might be willing to do to maintain its dominance. It seems to me that America has a lot of emotional capital wrapped up in being on top. At some point the faith of the American people in their nation's dominance will be shaken. I hope the public backlash from that won't result in rash decisions being taken by the government of the day.

[mikeo80]

I think that there is a much easier way for the Chinese military to go after our Nimitz class carriers. This scenario assumes (yes, I know what that means ) that the Chinese govt. has decided that war is inevitable and doesn't care about the consequenses.

Get a bunch of "cigarrette boats", load them with tac nukes and gasoline/ av gas/whatever the boat runs on. Start an incident near Taiwan. When the US Seventh fleet comes near to project power, send two/three/four hundred boats at the fleet. Yes, the Seventh will sink many, but can it sink enough? All it takes is one getting close enough.

This seems to be the strategy that Iran is threatening our Gulf forces with.

Just my two cents worth.

Mike

[jester]

To take out a carier, the Chinese are very patient and have used long term agents. This has been proven via some of the recent espionage cases of the last 20 years. Some had even Befriended a former president, they had infiltrated our nuclear program and stolen elements of the aegis system.

I also used sleepers setting up cells in many of the cities on the Pacific Coast of the United States in my home grown history <which I see is also used in the 2013 timeline>

They are patient, have similiar sleepers infiltrate the US Navy, with several station aboard vessels in that battlegroup, all it takes is one or two aboard a vessel of over 5000 persons to throw a monkey wrench into the ships operations. Add a couple more on the support vessels who refuel and rearm, provide antisubmarine protection, radar defense and anti ship or air capability and you will open up several chinks <hey, the word fits> in the armor.

As for getting aboard the vessel, or in the task force. This is possible or the chances are severely increased the way the US military recruits with giving personel a selection of MOS specialties or at least fields based on what is projected to be open and the score of their Entrance Exam. <The chances could be further increased by having the spies well schooled in aspects that will allow them to score high in portion of test that determines the suitability for a specific job field. Hell, even a cook can wreak havoc on a ship or unit! What if a strain of botulism is introduced into a ships ICE Cream supply durring the ships Ice Cream Night! You'd take out 90% of the vessel!>

Add such agents who could not only pick up the methods of operation and training and equipment. But, should they need to act, well the cook example is a big one. Or a failure of the electrical system that makes the carriers elevator operate would put it at a serious disadvantage to operations. or a million other little thats that could be done that could cause systems to go down, be delayed or degrade Thus opening chinks in the ships armor making it much more vulnerable from an outside attack.

[Webstral]

Originally Posted by Targan

At some point the faith of the American people in their nation's dominance will be shaken. I hope the public backlash from that won't result in rash decisions being taken by the government of the day.

Polling, which is admittedly a very crude gauge, suggests we are at that point. I maintain the fantasy that we yet will find a constructive way of expressing our rivalry with China, such as exploration of and development of space resources. Provided a suitable institutional framework can be established for development of extraterrestrial resources, such as lunar light helium and platinum, it might be possible to see national pride involved in the construction of infrastructure, energy resources, permanent stations, technological advances, etc. A carrier-killing missile (functional or otherwise) might make itself obsolete by inspiring greater efforts toward commercial competition and flagship efforts.

Yes, I'm a hopeless idealist. Still, since our competition with the Chinese is taking a very different form than our competition with the Soviets, I hope that we might recognize that we have more to gain from seeking common solutions than squabbling over the considerable but limited larder that exists already. Otherwise, there will always be yet another carrier-killing missile.

Webstral

[Legbreaker]

From the Killing Carriers thread back in March:

Originally Posted by Bluedwarf

...there is a type of weapon I understand was in use that would be perfect for this that has not been mentioned, but more on that in a minute.

-Moderate to strong storms can effectively ground all aircraft on a carrier, while the soviet land-based aircraft could launch and then rise above the weather at about 200nm to launch. The violent motions of the ships, not to mention green water getting to the gun barrels rendering the guns of the smaller screening craft inoperable, will dramatically reduce the combat effectiveness of the anti-aircraft screen, forcing the defence to rely primarily on missiles and making it harder to detect wave-skimming missiles. Further, the large waves will mess with targeting systems of both sides, and that would reduce the percentage of missiles that maintain correct lock. That is a sword that strikes both ways, but as most modern Soviet missiles would lock into the radar transmissions and heat of the ships that would be effected less than the radar guided point defence missiles attacking them. Since the north Atlantic is known for it's nasty weather, a Soviet strike timed to make the most of the storm could easily prove wise and profitable for them. Just ask the English, especially where the "Invincible Armada" of Spanish warships are concerned...

-Oil rigs in the North Atlantic also report occasional freak waves, up to 50m high or more. One of these could not be controlled by the Soviets, but they would make a mess of screening warships such as frigates and destroyers. While a carrier could well survive them, it may clean a lot of excess planes from the deck at an inopportune time, and could capsize them if they were focused on something else and did not maneuver into position to survive such a wave( like the captain was focussed on launching aircraft, for example).

-The russians had developed in the early 80's a new type of mine that could be dropped from even fishing vesseles, let alone old subs or warships. Rather than floating on the surface, these mines would sit on the bottom and wait for a warship (or, more exactly, a ship with sonar that did not have the right IFF signal in the sonar) to pass overhead. The sonar ping then activated the mine, launching a torpedo into the ship from underneath.

Now a screening fleet would usually be pinging, as are fishing boats, coincedently, but it would not take much for such a minefield to be laid with mines that were programmed to activate when they recieved a given signal, if they don't already have them. Then, while the fleet chases the sub giving off the signal, it will take them some time to realize that the torpedoes are not coming from a hidden wolfpack, by which time they could well be in the middle of a minefield. Throw in a real wolfpack, and the CBG will have a nightmare under the water.

Of course, combine any of these, and you could well deal with more than 5 CBG's without needing to resort to nukes. Nature is fickle, especially at sea, and could well throw it's weight against either, or even both sides, as history can tell.

[RN7]

Hi Dylan, nice post and very interesting blog link about China’s sensor and missile capabilities.

What can be gauged from this is that China has a growing land based OTH and radar ocean reconnaissance satellite capability. However this information seems to still be conjecture from a blog, and as the author admits towards the end of his article “ OTH radar development in China is still a relatively blurry topic, with many details still left to be uncovered “.

One thing I did notice from reading these links was the influence of Russia in Chinese sensor development. As stated “It is possible that Russian assistance was sought when developing the currently deployed systems. A Russian OTH-SW system of unknown type has been located near Petropavlovsk, and appears remarkably similar to the Chinese OTH-SW system”. Also “Russian input may have been sought in developing the OTH-SW system, given the receiver's similarity to that of the Nakhodka OTH-SW system. The Russian system is likely the more capable of the two systems, however, given that the transmitter is not located in close proximity to the receiver suggesting a system of greater power output and therefore greater range”. Additionally “The operational systems are likely more powerful than either the prototype OTH-B or the Russian transportable IRIDA OTH-SW system and therefore are likely to have greater range capability than is depicted”, and in regards to the target the DF-21D’s target identification capability “it would be provided by Chinese-produced derivatives of Russia's Kornet EO and radar satellites, the first constellation of which is scheduled to be operational in 2009”. I touched on the influence of Russia earlier in this post and what I have read from your links seems to confirm China’s reliance on Russian technology to develop it aerospace and air defence capabilities.

Here’s another interesting blog about the guidance and aerodynamic control of the DF-21D.

http://forden.armscontrolwonk.com/ar...early-thoughts

SS-NX-13 is an interesting story. Matt provides one interpretation,but I'd note another is that the system tested fine but was not seen as valuable enough to survive the arms control treaties of the 1970s - which limited all SSBNs regardless of range or purpose.

One Soviet Navy Golf-IV was converted to carry six experimental SS-NX-13 missiles in the 1970’s. The interpretation that the SS-NX-13 or KY-9 was cancelled for political reasons as part of the arms control treaties in the 1970’s is plausible and a credible explanation for the weapon systems demise, although I would still favour Matt’s interpretation. I would also offer an alternative interpretation, the introduction of the Tu-22M strategic and naval strike bomber which entered Soviet Air Force and Navy service at about the same time as the development of the SS-NX-13. The Tu-22M with AS-4 (Kh-22) and AS-6 (KSR-5) missiles was a cheaper, more deployable and more effective way of challenging the US Navy and NATO at sea.

[Raellus]

I couldn't tell you what publication it was but I was thumbing through a British aviation mag at the local Barnes & Noble and there was an article about China's ongoing attempts at modernizing it's combat air fleet. In the article, a Chinese official announced that China was 10 years or so from fielding its own, home-grown gen-5 fighter aircraft. There was a photo of a mock-up and it looked suspiciously like the Northrup F-23.

China is most likely receiving help (France, Russia, Israel), but this doesn't diminish its accomplishments. It's not like the U.S. develops its hi-tech systems in a vacuum. Bottom line is, the Chinese are rapidly improving their strategic and operational capabilities. As I said before, the Chinese are building their military for large-scale conventional conflicts, while the U.S. is not. Who will be better prepared for a war in the East Asian theatre in 10-20 years? If current trends continue, I'd put my money on the Chinese.

Don't get me wrong. I'm proud of my country's military. I've been a big fan since I was a boy. My dad's side of the family are all vets and my brother's carrying on the tradition in the USN. What bothers me is when people underestimate other nations. That's the one of the cardinal sins of any strategist. Writing off the Chinese is not a good idea. Hubris has deep-sixed many a great power. I don't want to see the West make that mistake vis-a-vis China.

[RN7]

Interesting criteria to define a superpower (very post 1945) but really wrong in the same time. This would imply that US has been a superpower only between 1945-1990. Personnaly, I would consider that US became a superpower in the late 19th century and still is one.

Well there were no superpowers before 1945 as no one country could be considered absolutely dominant. There was just a collection of great and regional powers notably America, Britain, France, Germany, Japan and Russia. Until 1914 only Britain due to its naval power and the size and wealth of its empire could be considered a dominant power worldwide, but until WW2 no country was dominant although some were more powerful in a military, economic and technological sense than others.

US has not relied on its military until 1945. Nevertheless, no one could have challenged US by means of arms after 1880. In my poor opinion that made US the most civilized country from 1776 to 1945. Since 1990, I would give that title to Australia and Canada (I'll make friends).

Well there was the Monroe Doctrine and major wars involving American forces against Mexico, Spain and Germany, as well as numerous small battles and expeditions across Africa, Asia and Latin America. Until the 1930’s the US military considered Britain and the British Empire a major rival and capable of threatening the continental US, which Britain was in both cases. The US Army came up with War Plan Red in 1930 to invade Canada in hostilities with the British Empire to prevent Britain using Canada as a staging point to attack America. The plan wasn’t declassified until 1974.

US political influence was felt as early as 1854 with the forced opening of Japan to the world. It never stopped since that time. It reached a peak after ww2 and it is currently going down.

It has actually been in decline since the late 1940’s as North America was hardly effected by WW2 in comparison to Europe and Asia, but has since recovered. This trend was temporarily reversed with the collapse of the Soviet Union in the 1990’s but has since been on the decline again.

US economic weight, however, became felt only after 1914. It still is felt today but it is seriously challenged. By the way, strictly speaking, US economy is now second, behind that of EU (which is in no way a superpower, far from it).

US economic power has been seriously challenged since the 1970’s by Europe and Japan, and now China has joined in. The combined EU has a larger economy than the USA, but the USA is once country not 27.

US technology is not at all as influencial as it had been in the past. When I came back from US in 1993, I brought back a full suitcase of US technological gears. When I visited in 1998, US had nothing of interest to a European. In 2003, I thought about bringing technology with me to US. This might not last, however.

This all goes in cycles, in the 1950’s all the best gadgets were American, from the 1980’s they were Japanese, and now they could be designed in any number of countries and built in another. Basically I look at the brand name and there plenty of nice fancy gadgets being built by American companies at the moment.

The cultural influence of US remain high but this is certainly where it looses ground the fastest. Germany is ahead in many ways and Asia as well.

In what way is Germany or Asia more culturally influential than America?

IMPO, the future leading countries will be these capable of reducing their dependence on oil. China is on the run, EU as well (Germany may be leading, way ahead of anyone else). US certainly is on the run. For my part, I would not bury US too fast but I don't think it will ever take the position it once had.

Of the major powers in the world only Russia is not dependent on oil imports, Britain is also fairly self sufficient in oil for the next few years but their part of the EU. America is probably in a better position than Europe and most of Asia in oil dependence, as in addition to its own oil it borders Mexico which is a major oil producer, and Canada which has the largest oil shale reserves in the world. The only real alternative to oil in energy production is other fossil fuels such as coal and gas, nuclear power or green energy production methods such as hydro, wind etc. Unfortunately green energy is only going to have a marginal effect on the energy needs of most countries, and in regards to coal America has the world’s largest reserves and it also has the largest nuclear power industry on the planet.

[RN7]

I couldn't tell you what publication it was but I was thumbing through a British aviation mag at the local Barnes & Noble and there was an article about China's ongoing attempts at modernizing it's combat air fleet. In the article, a Chinese official announced that China was 10 years or so from fielding its own, home-grown gen-5 fighter aircraft. There was a photo of a mock-up and it looked suspiciously like the Northrup F-23.

Raellus take a look at the following links to see what the Chinese air force is currently flying.

http://www.scramble.nl/cn.htm
http://www.sinodefence.com/airforce/default.asp
http://www.globalsecurity.org/milita...laaf-equip.htm

The best combat aircaft they have is the Russian Su-27SK/Su-30. Barely 20%of their combat airforce would be capable of taking on front-line USAF/USN/USMC fighters, let alone achieving air superiority. How are they going to put a 5th generation aircraft in service within 10 years on their own?

As I said before, the Chinese are building their military for large-scale conventional conflicts, while the U.S. is not.

What was the Gulf war, the Invasion of Iraq and ongoing fight against the Taleban in Afghanistan? The US is better prepared than any country for a conventional war.

Who will be better prepared for a war in the East Asian theatre in 10-20 years? If current trends continue, I'd put my money on the Chinese.

East Asia is China's back yard, its not America's, so the Chinese have the natural advantage of being there in the first place. However America more than any country is and will be able to send air, sea and land forces to that reason to deter Chinese aggression against countries friendly to America like Japan, South Korea, Taiwan etc.