Discussion: The Likelyhood of Dirty Bombs

[oldschoolgm]

I was thinking and I'd love to see some input on this matter, what is the likelyhood of dirty bombs being made?

Thinking on this, I don't think that any of the countries used all their nuclear ordinance, so there is at least one likely source of weapons grade material. And how many nuclear reactors would have survived through the last 5 years? As that would be a second source for the material. In either event, the gathering of the material and making the bomb do seem plausible to me for the year 2k though very difficult.

Also what lvl of NWH skill do you think the players would need to accomplish this, as well as what other skills would be needed?

Another factor to consider here too is what level of security would exist around surviving materials. Does the Air Force still have security forces around their silos? Have the surviving nuclear reactors been abandoned, and if not who's in control?

Anyways, I'd love to hear what you guys think.

[Ramjam]

IMHO after 5 years of nukes flying around I would think people would do anything not to see another one used. I would say 99% of remaining people have lost someone dear to them due to a nuke or it's effects.

I could see WP and NATO forces teaming up together to stop one from being stolen or used if they had timely intel.

And I think MilGov, CivGov and even NA to a degree would do the same as well.

As to sources of materials for a dirty bomb, there would be quite a bit around.

ICBM would still be guarded if they were useable. No government is going to risk one of those. But tac weapons in the form of artillery shells and ballistic missiles (ie SCUDs and Lances to name two) might be available if the unit using them was over run or destroyed. You also have their supply units which might have a few floating around in storage.

Reactors might be a bit of a problem, as any local community might be trying to use it to power the local area (as in Going Home) and if so they would be well guarded.

But you need to think of other sources. Hospitals and universities have legal access to radioactive material which would be much easier to obtain and would still be very useable in a dirty bomb.

As to NWH skill, this would need to be very high and would need a few other skills as well for sure (machinist is one for sure to build the new casing, electronic is another for the firing mech and timer). Again these would have to be really high as well with really bad results if you have a failure at anytime.

[copeab]

I'm not sure if adding to the fallout would be that big of a threat. Maybe in areas with few glowing craters, but in places already hit, doesn't seem like much point.

[Raellus]

Another issue is delivery. At the point where a country has used up most of their proper nuclear devices, they probably don't have the capacity to deliver such a bomb by air. Long-range artillery is a possibility. Ground delivery would be difficult, to say the least.

I don't see it as being much of a desirable/viable option.

[kota1342000]

A radiological dispersal device (dirty bomb as the more popular term is) is actually stupidly easy to construct. As for what level of NWH skill is needed; just enough to read detection equipment (active detectors, not dosimeters or film badges) and a recognition as to what to shovel up is pretty much all thats needed. In the world of T2k there wouldnt be any shortage of materials for it lying around, though you may have to travel some depending on how many nuclear weapon hits you have in your game. Personally I go with canon target lists. Then all you have to do is pack your active material around some kind of explosive and you have your RDD. As for delivery, it would depend on size. An RDD the size of a hand grenade is feasible though impractical. If youre going to spread radioactive material then go big.

However, the usefulness of an RDD would drop off sharply as well as survivors would know more about how to detect and protect themselves and their communities from radiological exposure. Currently in real life if you say "RADIATION" too loud then people flip out without understanding that not all radiological incidents are really that harmful. Simply depends on the materials activity, time of exposure, distance from exposure and shielding in between people and the source. Having done hazmat work for a few years, I have to say that of all the hazard classes (explosives, coompressed gases, flammable liquids, flammable solids, oxidizers, poisons, radioactives, corrosives, misc.) I would definitely rather deal with radioactive incidents than say a huge oxidizer spill or a burning propane tank on its side. LOL

For T2k I would think that chemical or biological weapons would make more of a scare. Sounds stupid, but not everyone would be ready or prepared for some kind of chemical attack on their surviving community, but are difficult weapons to use effectively. Bio threats on the other hand could wipe out a community unless they found out where the source of contamination was, isolated and quarantined the sick and made a competent medical response. Thats something that not many small or medium size communities could do.

[oldschoolgm]

As far as viability, a dirty bomb would definitely decimate and area about the size of Kalisz, and marauders would want one to protect their spoils so to say from larger organized units. Petty warlords and other sorts of similiar people would also want one. Or I would think so. Fear is a powerful tool for controlling people and being able to kill a larger enemy fast would be a huge tool of fear.

Another idea for using a dirty bomb, what do you think would happen if the KGB set one off at Bremerhaven when the US troops were trying to leave?

I could also see several uses in Iran by both sides, though I could see the Soviets being more willing to use one covertly.

When I look at our current world and the amount of potential perpetrators who would love to have a dirty bomb and the plethora of uses for one, I don't imagine there would be any fewer people who would want one for what ever reason.

I also like what you have to say about the Bio/Chem question too Kota, and that is also a thought, though without a decent lab, I would imagine it would be harder to do a bio/chem bomb than it would be a nuclear one.

[helbent4]

At this point (at least a year after the protracted nuclear exchange), radiation from most fallout would be long-gone (decayed or washed/blown away to nothing) so in most areas so there would be a noticeable effect, especially where airbursts were used. There are exceptions to the rule of course: downwind of destroyed reactors and nuclear storage facilities, in or around blast craters from groundbursts, "hot spots" left by the fragments of the bomb casing/unused fissile material for airbursts, etc.

However, it is still valid to ask what the overall effects and values of these weapons would be. "Dirty bombs" are currently mainly psychological weapons in that they incite fear and would disrupt urban areas, even if the actual area of effect is limited. If such a weapon were to be detonated nowadays, casualties would be minor, given modern medical science. In T2K:

1) People who have survived much worse would likely be knowledgeable and possibly prepared for what would be minor local fallout in comparison to an actual nuclear strike.

2) Urban areas in this phase of the Twilight War are already heavily disrupted. Probably the most one could do with a dirty bomb is maybe force an evacuation or at least make civilians and military personnel use protection and thus make life very difficult.

3) On the down side, populations are probably psychologically precarious and have little mental or physical resources to draw on in an attack. Civilians might flee because they think it's another nuclear attack, military units with poor discipline might bug out so as to not increase individual radiation doses, etc.

4) Further, surviving protective equipment is likely in poor condition, CBW decontamination protocols and equipment would be neglected, etc. Likewise effective medical care is probably not going to be available. Transportation is in a similarly dismal state, so evacuation might not be possible or even if carried out would be enormously disruptive.

5) The scarce remaining viable farmland is highly valuable and vulnerable. Detonating or threatening to detonate a dirty bomb could seriously disrupt a community's tenuous food supply. Likewise for scarce (and scarcer) water supplies.

To summarise, I think there would still be a strategic and tactical value for simple "dirty bomb" weapons and some would consider building them if they have the means.

A possible scenario might be a gang (marauders) could blackmail a community with some kind of home-made dirty bomb by, say, packing scavenged radioactive medical material into a truck-bomb and then threatening to detonate it upwind of the community and/or its fields and water supply. The community would be forced into deciding either to evacuate or ride it out, depending on what limited resources they have, or to capitulate. (Or, of course, bribe a wandering band of mercenaries/soldiers like the PCs into doing their dirty work for them!)

Or, rival political factions or adversarial military forces could conduct some kind of sneak attack for psychological or "scorched Earth" reasons. For example, the US federal government conducts a census prior to holding general elections. Concerned at the possibility of ceding further legitimacy to the civilian powers, US military personnel could attempt to seed a crucial water supply with radioactive material. This would sow confusion and disrupt enemy efforts, perhaps even drive the civilian population into the safety of the military camp. Conducted by a "rogue" unit of course, deniable and probably false-flag as well. Or maybe it really is the dastardly CIA seeking to defame the military in some way or force it out by contaminating one of its cantonments.

In my game left- and right-wing domestic terror organisations were highly active in the USA before the war. Such groups (including or especially New America) would be seeking "pocket WMDs". Left-wing terror groups could have been instructed by the KGB in preparing and using dirty bombs, even given access to stolen or smuggled radiological materials.

As to where you could get such materials, at least in North America, I think somewhere it does say most remaining US strategic weapons are secured by the US military, although bribery and corruption is possible. Medical supplies and civilian reactor waste might be a better bet once the strict controls on them start to break down. In Europe I would guess tactical nuclear weapons might be available in some form. Maybe not as deliverable weapons, but dud warheads, unexpended nuclear munitions, etc.

"TIRASPOL, Moldova -- In the ethnic conflicts that surrounded the collapse of the Soviet Union, fighters in several countries seized upon an unlikely new weapon: a small, thin rocket known as the Alazan. Originally built for weather experiments, the Alazan rockets were packed with explosives and lobbed into cities. Military records show that at least 38 Alazan warheads were modified to carry radioactive material, effectively creating the world's first surface-to-surface dirty bomb."

From "Dirty Bomb Warheads Disappear" in the Washington Post.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp...nguage=printer

The skill level to build such a weapon would not be that high, I would imagine maybe Average or Difficult at most. Mostly in safely dismantling the weapon or breaching containment to recover the material. Building the bomb would require Demo skill. The delivery system could be something improvised using MLRS rockets or even heavy mortars.

Tony

[pmulcahy11b]

Originally Posted by helbent4

2) Urban areas in this phase of the Twilight War are already heavily disrupted. Probably the most one could do with a dirty bomb is maybe force an evacuation or at least make civilians and military personnel use protection and thus make life very difficult.

Tony

This to me is the biggest use of a dirty bomb: Threatening the enemy or the populace you are trying to exploit with it. Even a believable threat of a dirty bomb (even if the people doing the threatening don't actually have one) could be used to this effect.

But it could also make you the recipient of as much military retaliation as the populace can muster...