OT - Turkey's Isreal confrontation

[Mohoender]

I have lightly followed that over the past weeks and as much as I don't support either side (having insufficient informations and considering UN ruling to be valid), I find it interesting in relation to T2K. By the way, this is theory only so don't jump to a needless defense of Israel, I'm not accusing of anything. Lets aside the political aspect and focus on the diplomatic-military scenario.

Both countries although not at war, have drifted apart seriously and Ankara obviously considers the situation to be a Casus-Belli. The Turkish government already took different diplomatic measures and now threatens to escort turkish relief ships to Gaza with Turkish Navy ships (probably because Turkey has become an influencial player over the region and because it might desire to strengthen its position).

Turkey being a member of NATO and an ally, I see a positive point to this. If they so, they will probably closely monitor what is in the relief ships and ensure the world that whatever goes through to Gaza is indeed relief materials. I'm also convinced that Israel and Turkey can find a common ground but we'll see. Still when politicians are involved, stupidity is skyrocketing.

Then, the downside comes if things go sour. Insteed of finding some common grounds, both countries remain on their respective position and there are a number of small incidents over the next weeks while more relief ships reach Gaza. Then, acting as it had been trained to do, an Israeli captain goes over its orders and, in a more important incident, damages one of the Turkish ships, killing a number of sailors. Within days, the two countries are at war and Ankara engages in a full scale naval offensive against Israel. Losses, especially in the air and at sea are important for both sides. Several Turkish ships are seriouly damaged while they lose a fairly high number of pilot. Soon, despite air superiority but with the bulk of its navy sunk or having suffered serious damage, Tel Aviv can no longer maintained Gaza's blocus. Increasingly worried for its security, Israel launches a handfull of Jericho missiles (carrying high explosive warheads) at Turkey, hopping for Ankara to back down.

Ankara, however, claiming that it had been attacked in the first place while his ships were on peaceful escort missions and that it is now targeted by strategic weapons of mass-destruction calls on its NATO allies. While the political leadership of NATO (including US) debate the oportunity of intervention...

Ok, I don't think it would bring us to war. I rather believe that other NATO members would turn their back on Turkey while strongly condemning Israel. Still that could have an interesting outcom with NATO effectively weakened (as most members betray their treaty obligation) and seriously switching the balance of power in the region.

Just a fun game idea. Leave it to your commands

[Targan]

It's going to get really interesting once the flotilla reaches what Israel considers to be its territorial waters. The race will be on to find a political solution before it gets to that point. A fascinating situation.

[Mohoender]

Originally Posted by Targan

It's going to get really interesting once the flotilla reaches what Israel considers to be its territorial waters. The race will be on to find a political solution before it gets to that point. A fascinating situation.

I agree because if it goes out of hand after that, Turkey would be the aggressor. Still, I'm fairly convinced that they will find a solution. In fact, back to RL for a sec, I wouldn't be surprised to have both countries finding an agreement in which Turkey could be allowed to supply Gaza in retrun for a combined checking of cargos by Turkish and Israeli authorities working together.

[95th Rifleman]

Don't forget Egypt and Syria.

Egypt has become very unfriendly to israel since the regime change and there have already been border incidents. If things kick off between Turkey and israel there is a good chance Egypt will become embroiled.

Syria has some serious internal problems, focussing people on an external enemy has always beena tried and tested method of dealing with this. Should Turkey (and/or Egypt) kick off with israel then Syria may get involved just to keep people focussed on an enemy that isn't their own government.

[Mohoender]

I had ruled Syria out because of its internal problems but the point is good. Egypt is uncertain but this could also bring Hezbollah again into the picture.

Another point is the existance of the ECO and relations between Turkey and Iran. So far, Turkey has remained neutral in the disputes between Iran and Israel what if it brakes this neutrality... And, then, Brazil might come into the picture with an heavy diplomatic involvement.

Ah, I love politic-fiction...

[Webstral]

A fascinating idea. What unique problems a Turko-Israeli conflict would cause! Given the lack of a land border, a Turko-Israeli War would be a maritime confrontation. In some ways, this makes a shooting war between Turkey and Israel easier to start; since no one would be invading anyone, it would be easier to see the fighting as being between rival fleets and air forces (although we all know better than that).

The idea of NATO having to choose between siding with Turkey or failing to abide by treaty obligations is a torturous one. I think the core NATO players would be at pains to find some way of preventing that eventuality. If the likes of us can think of the posibility of Israel launching missiles at Turkey, so can the combatants and onlookers. Since in this case an ounce of prevention would be worth a metric ton of cure, the US, UK, and Germany probably would apply as much carrot and stick as possible dilplomatically to keep the Israelis from launching missiles at Turkey.

Of course, the Israelis very well might launch counter-air missions against Turkish air bases from the get-go. History has taught them that an air force destroyed on the ground at the start of the fight is the best enemy air force. One can only imagine the debates occurring at the top levels of Israeli power over this one. How would NATO react to Israeli air strikes against Turkish air bases or naval bases on the second day of a Turko-Israeli War?

[Panther Al]

Originally Posted by Mohoender

I agree because if it goes out of hand after that, Turkey would be the aggressor. Still, I'm fairly convinced that they will find a solution. In fact, back to RL for a sec, I wouldn't be surprised to have both countries finding an agreement in which Turkey could be allowed to supply Gaza in retrun for a combined checking of cargos by Turkish and Israeli authorities working together.

That would work if Turkey had any reason to be cooperative about things, which they aren't. When the first flotilla was scheduled to head down, Israel offered to offload the ships and deliver them under total supervision of the flotilla organizers - on Israel's dime - and was turned down flat. Even the UN - hardly one to admit Israel was right about anything - said pretty much that they made every effort to prevent what happened from happening, and that the organizers and Turkey was more interested in scoring points than what they was supposed to be there to do.

Modern Turkey isn't the Turkey of a decade ago, or even the previous. Back then it was a modern country with a very west leaning point of view, and who saw no reason not to work with Israel. They called it the 'No Problems" approach. However, fundamentalist sects finally got their act together, and started to organize. Credit being due, these sorts of fundamentalists are remarkably realistic. They know they can't draw Turkey into the 'Mad Mullah' sort of country that Iran is, but they like what they see in it. They also see that there is far too many advantages to keeping its western ties rather then cutting them off as they would like. But what they can do is turn Turkey back to what they on the whole would wish they was: The old Ottoman Empire. As these sorts see it, the middle east is a place where they should have a strong leadership role, and they are not afraid to toss the old No Problems approach out the window. And the examples of the Arab Spring isn't lost on them either. By taking the tack that they have, they got out in front of it, and by various legal and extra-legal means, hammered down the secularist factions in Turkey to impotence. By pushing for hostility towards Israel, they have gotten a massive swell of approval from the masses outside of Turkey, and by reassuring the Turkish population that they remain aligned to the west by public statements (but not private actions) they have kept what support in country that they have developed.

[Mohoender]

Panther, thanks for your intervention. Still, I asked not to drift into political consideration. And to put things honnestly, I don't care about what actual Turkey is or is not compare to Turkey a decade ago.

I agree it is always in the background but that's were it should remain.

[headquarters]

>Mo - interesting spark point for a T2K scenario.

What does it look like on the spreadsheets?

I know little about both the hypotethical sides naval and aerial capacities. Also I guess special forces operations and missiles might be fielded.

I dont see the ground forces actually engaging in any large scale manner.

Has Israel got a blue water navy? What about Turkey? . I know the Med isnt the fiercest of oceans - so MTBs etc could probably be used for offensive operations outside their intended range.

Any thoughts on the technical side of things ?

[headquarters]

Mo - I just considered something. Israel would not allow any ships to reach Gaza ( It sees the ocean outside Gaza a its territorial waters). The Turkish Naval ships couldnt enter this zone without providing a casus belli by the manouver alone. ( Meaning - not yielding to Israeli instructions once entering these waters would legally give the Israelis justification to start the ladder of ROE escalation.) On the othr hand - Turkish ships - were they to stop outside the Israeli jurisidiction could find themselves in a situation were their compatriots were reporting danger to life and health of crews and passengers due to Israeli actions to stop the convoy. Legal justification to to fire on the Israeli in defence of the lives of their countrymen could be construed.

But all in all - it would be a war of posturing and symbolic victories. Neither country can efficiently oust the enemy regime, and invasion is out of teh question. Also Israel will never lose a war without taking its enemy down with it - the Israelis have enough nukes to make the desert twice as barren

Originally Posted by Mohoender

I have lightly followed that over the past weeks and as much as I don't support either side (having insufficient informations and considering UN ruling to be valid), I find it interesting in relation to T2K. By the way, this is theory only so don't jump to a needless defense of Israel, I'm not accusing of anything. Lets aside the political aspect and focus on the diplomatic-military scenario.

Both countries although not at war, have drifted apart seriously and Ankara obviously considers the situation to be a Casus-Belli. The Turkish government already took different diplomatic measures and now threatens to escort turkish relief ships to Gaza with Turkish Navy ships (probably because Turkey has become an influencial player over the region and because it might desire to strengthen its position).

Turkey being a member of NATO and an ally, I see a positive point to this. If they so, they will probably closely monitor what is in the relief ships and ensure the world that whatever goes through to Gaza is indeed relief materials. I'm also convinced that Israel and Turkey can find a common ground but we'll see. Still when politicians are involved, stupidity is skyrocketing.

Then, the downside comes if things go sour. Insteed of finding some common grounds, both countries remain on their respective position and there are a number of small incidents over the next weeks while more relief ships reach Gaza. Then, acting as it had been trained to do, an Israeli captain goes over its orders and, in a more important incident, damages one of the Turkish ships, killing a number of sailors. Within days, the two countries are at war and Ankara engages in a full scale naval offensive against Israel. Losses, especially in the air and at sea are important for both sides. Several Turkish ships are seriouly damaged while they lose a fairly high number of pilot. Soon, despite air superiority but with the bulk of its navy sunk or having suffered serious damage, Tel Aviv can no longer maintained Gaza's blocus. Increasingly worried for its security, Israel launches a handfull of Jericho missiles (carrying high explosive warheads) at Turkey, hopping for Ankara to back down.

Ankara, however, claiming that it had been attacked in the first place while his ships were on peaceful escort missions and that it is now targeted by strategic weapons of mass-destruction calls on its NATO allies. While the political leadership of NATO (including US) debate the oportunity of intervention...

Ok, I don't think it would bring us to war. I rather believe that other NATO members would turn their back on Turkey while strongly condemning Israel. Still that could have an interesting outcom with NATO effectively weakened (as most members betray their treaty obligation) and seriously switching the balance of power in the region.

Just a fun game idea. Leave it to your commands

[Mohoender]

HQ

The Turkish navy (several frigates including OH Perry and Meko 200 as well as support ships and submarines) is of course all powerful when compared to that of Israel (3 Sa'ar 5 covettes, 3 Type 212 submarines and above a dozen Sa'ar 4 missile boats).

Agree land action is out of the question except for Israeli commando operations at sea that can be countered by Turkish counter commando operations.

When it comes to air power, both can have it with Israel having a fair advantage: air bases are closer and well trained F15 pilots is something that lacks Turkey. Turkey has its closest air base in Cyprus but, has we just saw, this is as good as NATO having bases in Sicily to bomb Libya and it works fine.

The issue on territorial waters is indeed valid but debated. Waters in front of the Gaza strip are not Israeli territorial waters. However, authority had been granted to Israel to control these water, as well as the air space under, the Oslo agreement. This provided, however, for a permission ot be given to the Palestinians to go and fish up 20 miles off the coast. As this agreement as been broken by Israel and Israel alone (I don't care if they had a valid point to do it or not), it's legal authority over the water could be contested. The point is simply to know if Ankara would go as far as to sail into these waters. That's all the interest in that situation. Even when putting the political aspects (I mean religious craps from all sides) to the background, it's shadowy enough to conduct to various outcomes and, in that, bears some interesting common points with T2K's beginning.

War should not come but it might from a number of mistakes, lack of efforts and refusal to hear the other side (as pointed out by Panther). I know for the nukes but so far, I have left them out of the picture. I also agree with your statement on Israel not willing to loose but that is equally true for Turkey which has effectively become a dominant regional power and has a GDP growth of 8.2% in 2010 to compare with 1.8% for EU.

At a diplomatic level, the interesting thing is that it occurs now as EU has achieved a major diplomatic victory over Libya under the leadership of France (Sarkozy). Turkey had done almost everything to comply to EU pre-requisite in order to join the Union but it had been kept outside because of France (of course not alone but leading the Anti-Turc movement) and that same Sarkozy in 2007. Therefore, if Turkey has an issue with someone, it could well be with Europe, France and Sarkozy himself. Another thought.

[Targan]

Originally Posted by headquarters

Mo - I just considered something. Israel would not allow any ships to reach Gaza ( It sees the ocean outside Gaza a its territorial waters). The Turkish Naval ships couldnt enter this zone without providing a casus belli by the manouver alone. ( Meaning - not yielding to Israeli instructions once entering these waters would legally give the Israelis justification to start the ladder of ROE escalation.)

That's what I was alluding to in post #2 of this thread.

[Mohoender]

And both of you have a very strong point.

[pmulcahy11b]

This whole idea is just devilish! Yum!

[Mohoender]

Originally Posted by pmulcahy11b

This whole idea is just devilish! Yum!

It's just a devote worship to our forefather, Franck Chadwick