Making Sense of Some Developments in Arizona

[Webstral]

As I work on a new piece for Thunder Empire, a few things that are periphery but important occur to me. The first is the quantity and disposition of the food stores at Fort Huachuca. The food was meant to sustain the metropolitan populations of the Valley of the Sun, which includes Phoenix, Mesa, Tempe, Scottsdale, and other significant population centers, and metropolitan Tucson for 180 days at 1500 calories per head. The Pentagon’s Contingency Division was looking at a modified Red Star scenario in which a strong but sub-general East-West nuclear exchange would completely cut off food shipments to the two urban areas of Arizona without seeing nuclear weapons used against either urban area. In the event of a White Star scenario—which is more-or-less what happened—the food could be used to smooth the inevitable shortages that would occur during the transition from pre- to post-Exchange agriculture and transportation. In the event of a Blue Star scenario, in which a extended conventional war caused severe economic disruption, the food stores could be used to keep a lid on civil unrest resulting from mass unemployment and poverty.

In the event, food shipments to Phoenix and Tucson were not completely cut off before the Mexican invasion. As reporting in Howling Wilderness, the triage plan to limit food distribution to urban centers of lesser importance was to be implemented on 1 July 1998. Despite its defense industry, the Valley of the Sun was placed in the bottom half of the list. Tucson was located even further down. The deteriorating situation in CONUS led to food shipments diminishing before the Mexican invasion on 2 June 1998. Thus some food was flowing out of the stores at Huachuca when the Second Mexican-American War started, but not very much.

The other factor of some importance was the re-emergence of the bubonic plague. The initial outbreak was in San Francisco, but other outbreaks soon followed in Arizona and other states. Rather quickly, the plague made its way to Phoenix. Much of the population was weak and tired already. The plague soon tore gaping holes in the population. So many people were dying by mid-June that it was impossible to say how much food might be needed. A few violent incidents along the I-10 corridor involving Mexican attacks on American convoys transporting food from Huachuca to Metro Phoenix, plus a few more incidents of violence at the Phoenix end, plus the first cases of plague among the troops at Huachuca convinced Thomason that Phoenix was done. Thus from about July onward the populations of Pima, Santa Cruz, and Cochise Counties were eating food meant for three times their number. Of course, they were now completely cut off from the outside world. Even if the Mexicans had been inclined to allow food to travel along the rail lines through their territory in New Mexico and California, Milgov never would have allowed food to go to Huachuca and Tucson.

There was, by the way, much loss of life in SAMAD to disease. Bubonic plague killed many in separate outbreaks that were contained with much effort. Other contagions killed thousands. The pre-war population of the three counties was about 500,000. Still alive are 400,000, but this number includes tens of thousands of Mexican refugees working in labor battalions, refugees from Metro Phoenix who survived the journey after June 1998, refugees from Yuma and rural areas throughout southern and eastern Arizona, and even some refugees from Albuquerque.

[Raellus]

A couple points to consider, especially once the pre-positioned stockpiles of non-perishables run out:

The agriculture around Tucson relies heavily on CAP water. A warlord or a covetous regional gonverment could easily disrupt the flow of CAP water to S. Arizona, making feeding the survivors of Tucson, at the very least, a very difficult proposition. Such a scenario would make a pretty cool adventure seed for a Thunder Empire-set campaign.

Not to split hairs but the Bubonic plague is a relatively easy disease to avoid/prevent and/or treat- all one has to do is stay as clean as possible and avoid the likely carriers (rodents, house pets). If infection occurs, antibiotics, if delivered early enough, can usually kill it. I don't see BP causing the scale of mortality that your write up describes. A reappearance of the more virulent airborne-transmitted Pneumocic Plague strains, however, would do the trick. It spreads much more easily (a cough or sneeze), is more aggressive, and harder to treat. A mutated version of PP would be a real killer.

[Webstral]

Originally Posted by Raellus

The agriculture around Tucson relies heavily on CAP water. A warlord or a covetous regional gonverment could easily disrupt the flow of CAP water to S. Arizona, making feeding the survivors of Tucson, at the very least, a very difficult proposition. Such a scenario would make a pretty cool adventure seed for a Thunder Empire-set campaign.

I like the idea very much. However, I hadn’t taken CAP water into account for agriculture in Thunder Empire. The irrigation water in SAMAD comes from local wells and is distributed by hand from hoses and water buckets into plots that are about 100 square feet (20’ x 5’). A Chinese gardener from North China of the mid-1800’s would feel very at home growing food in SAMAD in 2000. This method is very labor intensive, but it preserves the resource that is in scarcest supply: good ol’ water. In fact, the more I read about Chinese agriculture of days gone by, the more parallels I see between SAMAD and late Manchu China. The similarities are so striking, that I have begun to refer to the intensive gardening practices and the way they shape the society as a sinification of southern Arizona.

Of course, not all food is produced this way. The Iraqi and Central Asian EPW prove invaluable partners in agriculture. Several of them have experience growing cereal crops on semi-arid land using modern or semi-modern techniques. The Huachuca library, built during 1996 and 1997, has invaluable information on Spanish techniques for managing agricultural land at risk of desertification. The initial trials are not especially successful; fortunately, the society isn’t depending on the first harvest. The second round of plantings goes much better, and oats become a part of the Samadi diet. (Corn-oat bread, anyone?)

There are some other techniques in use borrowed from First Nations (that’s what we’re calling Native Americans these days, right?), Africans, and peoples of the Indian subcontinent. All of them specialize in substituting labor for water. As an added bonus, the health of the soil increases dramatically as a result of the labor invested. The drawback, of course, is that the economy reverts to an agricultural economy in which 75% of the population is directly involved in food production in one fashion or another.

I like the CAP reference because securing the canal and its associated machinery has the potential to revolutionize agriculture in southern Arizona. In 2001, SAMAD has enough trained and seasoned manpower to think about taking on major projects

Originally Posted by Raellus

Not to split hairs but the Bubonic plague is a relatively easy disease to avoid/prevent and/or treat- all one has to do is stay as clean as possible and avoid the likely carriers (rodents, house pets). If infection occurs, antibiotics, if delivered early enough, can usually kill it. I don't see BP causing the scale of mortality that your write up describes. A reappearance of the more virulent airborne-transmitted Pneumocic Plague strains, however, would do the trick. It spreads much more easily (a cough or sneeze), is more aggressive, and harder to treat. A mutated version of PP would be a real killer.

Fair enough. Rather than argue about whether the conditions for administering antibiotics on a wide scale in Phoenix exist in mid-1998, I’ll go with the pneumonic plague. I don’t even need a mutated version. Once the downward spiral kicks in hard, the Valley of the Sun becomes a nightmare in short order.

[Raellus]

Originally Posted by Webstral

I like the idea very much. However, I hadn’t taken CAP water into account for agriculture in Thunder Empire. The irrigation water in SAMAD comes from local wells and is distributed by hand from hoses and water buckets into plots that are about 100 square feet (20’ x 5’). A Chinese gardener from North China of the mid-1800’s would feel very at home growing food in SAMAD in 2000. This method is very labor intensive, but it preserves the resource that is in scarcest supply: good ol’ water. In fact, the more I read about Chinese agriculture of days gone by, the more parallels I see between SAMAD and late Manchu China. The similarities are so striking, that I have begun to refer to the intensive gardening practices and the way they shape the society as a sinification of southern Arizona.

Of course, not all food is produced this way. The Iraqi and Central Asian EPW prove invaluable partners in agriculture. Several of them have experience growing cereal crops on semi-arid land using modern or semi-modern techniques. The Huachuca library, built during 1996 and 1997, has invaluable information on Spanish techniques for managing agricultural land at risk of desertification. The initial trials are not especially successful; fortunately, the society isn’t depending on the first harvest. The second round of plantings goes much better, and oats become a part of the Samadi diet. (Corn-oat bread, anyone?)

There are some other techniques in use borrowed from First Nations (that’s what we’re calling Native Americans these days, right?), Africans, and peoples of the Indian subcontinent. All of them specialize in substituting labor for water. As an added bonus, the health of the soil increases dramatically as a result of the labor invested. The drawback, of course, is that the economy reverts to an agricultural economy in which 75% of the population is directly involved in food production in one fashion or another.

I think this is really interesting. You've obviously given this a lot of thought and done your homework. Huachuca could likely subsist on the type of farming you've described here. It'd be cool to actually see what could and could not be accomplished (although I hope we don't ever have to try it) using non-traditional/non-western style agricultural techniques. I'm all in favor of a return to more natural, eco-friendly and sustainable farming. I'm just very doubtful that Tucson could sustain even close to a quarter of its current population without the CAP water. Most of our food is imported (most of that from Cali and Mexico) and taht would be unavailable in the Twilight World. The #1 crop out here seems to be cotton. Even that requires a lot of water and most of that comes from the CAP. I live less than a mile from the main CAP feeder (I cross it nearly every day). As I drive to work most days, I see farmhands dropping sections of plastic tubing into the canals to feed water to their fields. Once that canal water dries up, I don't see any way for crops out here to survive.

Then there's the matter of fertilizer and pesticides. I get buzzed by cropdusters about once a week. It's a pretty cool experience until I remember about all the chemicals that they're dumping just meters away. Once again, I'm no expert, but I've read a few things about farming here in the U.S. in general bemoaning the overuse of fertilizers on large "industrial" farms. I wonder how much fertilizers the farmers here in Marana use. I wonder how much yields out here would drop if they weren't using chemical fertilizer and pesticides.

Anyway, I don't want you to think that I'm ragging on your work. It's just hard not to think about this kind of stuff when I'm living in S. Arizona farm country and involved in T2K.

Originally Posted by Webstral

Fair enough. Rather than argue about whether the conditions for administering antibiotics on a wide scale in Phoenix exist in mid-1998, I’ll go with the pneumonic plague. I don’t even need a mutated version. Once the downward spiral kicks in hard, the Valley of the Sun becomes a nightmare in short order.

You're absolutely right on the antibiotics count. Shortages of said would allow "ordinary" Bubonic plague to become more than just a nuisance. Still, basic hygiene and pest control efforts would go far in slowing its spread. For large-scale mortality, the Pneumonic variant is the way to go.

[Webstral]

Originally Posted by Raellus

You've obviously given this a lot of thought and done your homework.

I have. And I continue to learn. There’s so much to learn…

Originally Posted by Raellus

Anyway, I don't want you to think that I'm ragging on your work. It's just hard not to think about this kind of stuff when I'm living in S. Arizona farm country and involved in T2K.

The challenge is so enormous that when I first came up with the idea of having Fort Huachuca survive the Mexican invasion, I threw the whole concept out on the grounds that water shortages would cause the place to fall apart.

Originally Posted by Raellus

I'm just very doubtful that Tucson could sustain even close to a quarter of its current population without the CAP water.

I won’t tell you the things you already know, Rae. However, few of our readers have spent any time in southern Arizona, so they should be brought up to speed. The Central Arizona Project is an aqueduct that brings water from the Colorado River to Phoenix and Tucson. The Tucson extension was completed by the time I was assigned to Huachuca in ’94, but for reasons I don’t remember Tucson didn’t draw water from CAP at that time. All of Tucson’s water came from groundwater, which is one reason the Santa Cruz River (I think it’s the Santa Cruz) is dry most of the year and has lost its riparian community. Now the city is watered with a mix of groundwater and water from CAP.

Originally Posted by Raellus

As I drive to work most days, I see farmhands dropping sections of plastic tubing into the canals to feed water to their fields. Once that canal water dries up, I don't see any way for crops out here to survive. Then there's the matter of fertilizer and pesticides. I get buzzed by cropdusters about once a week. It's a pretty cool experience until I remember about all the chemicals that they're dumping just meters away. Once again, I'm no expert, but I've read a few things about farming here in the U.S. in general bemoaning the overuse of fertilizers on large "industrial" farms. I wonder how much fertilizers the farmers here in Marana use. I wonder how much yields out here would drop if they weren't using chemical fertilizer and pesticides.

Cotton isn’t going to make it. Those fields probably won’t make it, although I couldn’t swear a way wouldn’t be found to get well water to the surface and substitute human labor for everything a combine would do. (Combines are pretty specific, though, aren’t they? I really don’t know how hard it would be to use cotton machinery for wheat or oats.) You’re absolutely right that the fertilizer problem is real. In a nutshell, modern agribusiness feeds each crop with petroleum products. Everything the crop needs except water and sunshine gets sprayed onto the soil. In many places, the soil is so devoid of organic matter that microorganisms won’t grow in it. It’s scary. Industrial agriculture has a lot in common with hydroponics.

Tucson would be up that proverbial creek, except that by sheer luck the city is located near a place with food, good leadership, a large body of armed troops, and knowledge. Okay, it’s not all luck. I’ve taken some of the Tucsonan culture into account. When I was living in Sierra Vista, which is basically from the last year of peace through the nuclear exchange, Tucson was a very different place from Phoenix. Water consumption per capita in Tucson was half that of Phoenix. Half. The city knew it was living in the desert. Setting aside the unsustainable withdrawal of groundwater, the city generally didn’t want to live like Phoenix, which seems to try desperately to have all of the benefits of desert living without any of the consequences.

Bottom line up front, Tucson endures a lot of changes between 1996 and 2001. The pre-war population diminishes by about a third—and that includes in the final tally a large number of refugees from the Valley of the Sun and elsewhere. There’s some large-scale violence during the Feb-Apr 98 period that results in tens of thousands of deaths and the loss of a lot of housing stock. However, the survivors make the adjustment to intensive gardening for essentially the same reasons Sierra Vista does. In the first place, they have to if they want to eat. Secondly, the food stores at Huachuca give Tucson the time to make the adaptation, albeit just barely. On the third hand, the government controls the electricity, the wells, and the rations. The armaments of the populace count for something, but the police and the troops develop itchy trigger fingers that result in a lot of yahoos meeting their maker.

The most important factor might be what happens before the Exchange. Unlike Phoenix, which responds to her vulnerability by ignoring it for as long as possible, Tucson asks uncomfortable questions from the start. It’s a minor cultural thing that pays big dividends. As Fort Huachuca develops her contingency research, planning, and preparations, Tucson takes notice and gets involved. The local media responds to the periodic nuclear scares by running stories on how people will cope. Schools take the lead with intensive gardening projects that receive media attention. The whole idea of Victory Gardens comes back in a major way in Tucson—again, with support from the media, local government, and Fort Huachuca. While the city is in no way, shape, or form self-sustaining at the TDM, the psychological groundwork has been laid in Tucson for using every scrap of land within the city boundaries for hand-watered intensive gardening—and other practices. Without the psychological prep before the Exchange, without the high school projects, civic projects, and Victory Gardens, without the presence of troops (both Army and Air Force), without the food stores at Huachuca, without the seed stores at Huachuca, without the existing groundwater infrastructure, without the ability to adapt to moving drums of well water by hand-drawn carts to gardens, without the very active participation of the University of Arizona, without without without… Without a host of factors, Tucson’s narrow squeak into survival would have gone disastrously the other way. As it is, a visitor from 1994 would find Tucson’s rhythms of life virtually unrecognizable in 2001. About the only things that are the same are the skyline and some of the infrastructure.

A lot of people end up getting moved out of Tucson, by the way. Sierra Vista is cooler and wetter (!). The towns of Cochise County can absorb more people, and there is an ever-present need for the land to be gardened around the small towns.

Originally Posted by Raellus

For large-scale mortality, the Pneumonic variant is the way to go.

Consider your suggestion unabashedly stolen. Y’har!