Second Battle for Berlin: December 1996

[dude_uk]

So how does this factor into WW3?

So with the combined forces of NATO and a now hostile East-Germany. The Soviets then add to this by trying to take West-Berlin. What's the logic in this?

The timeline says 'a week of bitter of street fighting' (I doubt the Allies can hold off longer than that).

Adding this puts further strain on France not intervening, its very hard for them to withdraw from NATO when the Soviets are shooting at their soldiers. Unless they withdraw? Leave the US and UK in the lurch?

Thoughts?

[Webstral]

By December, the West Germans have lost the initiative and are losing the struggle. Of course, the US, UK, and Canada get involved at this point and change the whole equation of the war.

The v1 chronology implies without actually stating so that the NATO offensive across East Germany is a relatively slow affair. I think that terribly unlikely. The Pact has exerted itself to the max to contain the West Germans. By sheer weight of numbers, they have held and started to push back the Bundeswehr. Suddenly, the weight of ten fresh heavy divisions hits the Pact. Just as significantly, the USAF in Europe is added to the equation. It’s hard to see that the outcome isn’t a disaster for the Pact. Whatever happens in Berlin, a powerful NATO thrust across the North German Plain north of Berlin would reach the Oder in short order. Obviously, this won’t be a complete recreation of Operation Desert Storm, but the quality, quantity, and freshness of the NATO mechanized formations can’t help but completely unhinge the Pact defenses.

I see the Pact withdrawing into Czechoslovakia, since the USAF will close the Oder crossings until NATO forces reach the river near the Baltic. Then NATO forces will roll up the left bank of the river, threatening Pact forces in central East Germany with encirclement. The Pact forces will fall back to the south. NATO won’t make too strenuous an effort to encircle and destroy large numbers of Pact formations because the civilian leadership wants simply to finish the fighting in East Germany. In the interests of re-establishing peace and commerce after the forcible reunification of Germany, they are content with pushing the Pact off German soil instead of killing or capturing Pact troops en masse.

[HorseSoldier]

NATO, especially US, prep for the entering the war may have initially been hamstrung by a fear that ramping up could, in itself, trigger a nuclear exchange, so the other NATO nations that joined the West Germans may have been launching from more of a standing start than anyone at the tactical/operational level would have liked.

Possible idea to explain what happened, anyway.

On the fight for Berlin, I'd say the French must have pulled out. Alternately, the .sovs could have ignored the French sector with French troops still in it, but if France wanted to stay out of the war, pulling their troops before the battle for Berlin kicked off would be a much preferable course of action. They could certainly spin it in domestics politics as not running away, but rather continuing their policy of not supporting German reunification by force.

[Webstral]

US Army Vehicle Guide leaves room for the idea that the US Army was not poised at the border waiting for the word to go. In the following short list, two dates follow each listed formation. The first date is the border crossing, and the second date is when the formation went into combat.

1st AD: 12/5/96, 12/6/96
1st CD: 12/10/96, 12/15/96
2nd AD: 12/3/96, 12/7/96

3rd AD: 12/5/96, 12/11/96
1st ID: 12/4/96, 12/8/96
3rd ID: 12/3/96, 12/7/96

4th ID: 12/7/96, 12/11/96
8th ID: 12/5/96, 12/10/96
2nd ACR: 12/3/96, 12/7/96

3rd ACR: 12/7/96, 12/12/96
11th ACR: 12/2/96, 12/5/96

So, of the US combat formations listed in US Army Vehicle Guide, none were present on East German soil prior to 12/2. None were in combat against Pact forces until 12/5. Four divisions went into action between 12/6 and 12/8. Three more divisions first saw action on 12/10 and 12/11. 1st Cavalry Division first saw action on 12/15.

There are a couple of explanations for this. One is that the USAEUR was behaving as though there was no plan to enter combat in East Germany. This is reasonable. However, the commanders would have thought this one through and made some plans to organize movement to the front in keeping with an operational plan. Even if Anglo-American forces had occupied positions at their start lines, they would have been organized into echelons. The dates for formations entering combat seem to support two corps-sized efforts each with two divisions up and one to two divisions in follow-on. The forward divisions may have fought for 3-4 days before being fought out, at which point the second echelon would have been passed through to maintain the momentum.

[Webstral]

According to NATO Vehicle Guide, Canadian 4th Mech Brigade crossed the East German border on 12/9 and entered combat on 12/12.

British Army
1st AD: 12/10/96, 12/12/96
2nd AD: 12/10/96, 12/12/96
3rd AD: 12/9/96, 12/10/96

5th Royal Inniskilling Dragoon Guards: 12/96, actual date of first combat unknown
The Royal Hussars: 12/96, actual date of first combat unknown

So we basically have the equivalent of four more divisions entering combat between 12/10 and 12/12. When one takes into account the additional three US heavy divisions that also enter combat in this timeframe, it seems likely that a major operation exploiting one or more breakthroughs by the first echelon of the NATO attack beginning 12/6 and expanding through 12/8.

Without knowing where the front line trace was leading up to the US offensive, it’s hard to do anything more than conjecture as to the shape of things. However, it seems reasonable to believe that the West Germans would have made every effort to keep their lines relatively straight as they fell back so as to avoid presenting tempting salients. SACEUR would have wanted to exploit the armor friendliness of the North German Plain for offensive operations while exploiting the defensive advantages offered by the terrain in the south. This may help explain the gaps between US Army units crossing the frontier and their first action. I imagine UD forces attacking on a four-division front through Magdeburg with the intent of having the right flank of the offensive skirt the northwest shoulder of greater Berlin. The second echelon, or a portion thereof, would have continued the offensive on a northeasterly axis past Berlin and to the Oder River. Pact forces left in Mecklenburg would have been cut off from resupply except by air. Once these forces were dealt with, Anglo-American divisions could have been reoriented to face south along an arc north of Berlin. An attack south along the left bank of the Oder would have been able to use the river to protect the left flank of the drive while inviting the Pact to allow some of its forces to be encircled at Berlin. In general terms, NATO (including West German forces) might then have pressed south to squeeze the Pact out of East Germany.

[mikeo80]

Originally Posted by dude_uk

So how does this factor into WW3?

So with the combined forces of NATO and a now hostile East-Germany. The Soviets then add to this by trying to take West-Berlin. What's the logic in this?

The timeline says 'a week of bitter of street fighting' (I doubt the Allies can hold off longer than that).

Adding this puts further strain on France not intervening, its very hard for them to withdraw from NATO when the Soviets are shooting at their soldiers. Unless they withdraw? Leave the US and UK in the lurch?

Thoughts?

There is one option that I have not noticed in this discussion on the fate of Berlin. With France needing a safe out for the war, the French soldiers in West Berlin could have been under orders to "stand down".

France wants nothing to do with a re-united Germany, having lost to them three times in seventy years. (Franco-Prussian War, WWI, WWII)

However, with Germany "re-united" under Soviet rule, the French realize that the Soviets would need 10-20 years to fully integrate Western Germany onto Eastern Germany.

Anything could happen in those years. For certain, France gets rid of the hated US and UK troops posted in West Germany/Belgium/Netherlands. This goes a long way to freeing up French troops to be down sized to support France's social spending. Also, France becomes the defacto "leader" of Western Europe. France also becomes a viable voice in the "neutral" countries of the world. I could see some sort of loose confederation between France, Belgium, Netherlands, Luxembourg, and Switzerland. Spain, Italy and Portugal could be persuaded to join.

My $0.02

Mike

[Webstral]

One of the important unanswered questions is how the Pact is handling reinforcing Pact ground forces in Germany. When I wrote Storm in Germany ages ago, I envisioned a combination of more-or-less complete formations moving forward as well as masses of men from other divisions sent forward as replacements. In keeping with the Soviet doctrine of fighting a division until it was combat ineffective (30-50%), then withdrawing it for reconstitution with replacement men and machines, the formations of GSFG would be rotated through reconstitution centers behind the line. It’s hard to say how many fresh Soviet divisions would have been moved into East Germany during the fighting in Oct-Nov 96, other than the handful mentioned in the v1 chronology.

By the same token, it’s hard to say how many Polish formations would have been involved. (I don’t have the Eastern Europe Sourcebook, which I suspect details such things.) The same question of fresh formations v reconstituted formations comes into play, though. I’m very much inclined to think that the Soviets would have fed replacements into the formations in combat at the best possible rate while assembling intact divisions in the operational rear for a counterstroke once the West Germans had been fought to a standstill. It’s possible that this counterstroke was underway when the Anglo-Americans got involved.

There’s also the question of what was going on between the time the first US Army formation crossed the border and the first combat action between US and Pact forces. 11th ACR claims this honor, having crossed the border on 12/02 and started fighting on 12/05. By the time the first American combat unit entered East Germany, there would be no more question in the minds of the Soviets that the US was entering the ring, so to speak. So what happened in the air?

In my mind, leading up to the Anglo-American involvement there was an agreement of some sort that defined a Pact ability to hit targets in West Germany germane to the war effort free from NATO interference. After all, if the war was a West German coup de main, then the West Germans should be available for Pact counteraction. It would be hard for the US to defend the airspace above West German air bases while claiming to be on the sidelines.

As a result, there probably would have been regular attacks by the SAF and its allied against West German targets. NATO air defenses would have tracked them, of course. It goes without saying that all targeting data would have been transmitted to the West Germans in real time. The inbound Pact strike craft would have had USAF/RAF escorts to ensure that there were no attempts to hit non-German NATO targets. Over the course of nearly two months of war, the Pact would have become habituated to being tracked and escorted en route to their targets in West Germany.

At the right moment, the USAF and RAF would have bushwhacked the Pact. The escorts would have opened up on the communist fliers in a sort of Red Pearl Harbor. Of course, some sort of provocation would have to be fabricated ahead of time. This would not be hard. Essentially, though, the story would be that the Soviets violated the agreement, leading to the NATO air defenses destroying all hostile aircraft in West German airspace. A quick 100-200 victories later, the USAF begins its German version of Operation Desert Storm. During the interim between 12/01 and 12/05, two US Army corps move up to the start lines with their armored cavalry regiments in the lead. The Pact forces in East Germany, having relaxed their guard a bit against air attack as a result of the destruction of the Luftwaffe and sheer exhaustion, would be superb targets during the first couple of hours of the Anglo-American air offensive. After 4-6 days of softening, the American first echelon goes in.

Where the Pact forces are at this point is an excellent question.

[dude_uk]

So you suggesting that the Soviets attempt to take West-Berlin as an attempt to avoid encirclement by Anglo-American Forces?

Once the UK-US get involved, its game over for pact in East-Germany. All that time watching the West Germans will have been spent in target acquisition and training. When the Western Allies move, they will MOVE. They have know for a while, where and how to make the pact bleed best.

[mikeo80]

Originally Posted by dude_uk

So you suggesting that the Soviets attempt to take West-Berlin as an attempt to avoid encirclement by Anglo-American Forces?

Once the UK-US get involved, its game over for pact in East-Germany. All that time watching the West Germans will have been spent in target acquisition and training. When the Western Allies move, they will MOVE. They have know for a while, where and how to make the pact bleed best.

I have a different view on the US/UK/Canadian offensive.

I do not think they had a CLUE what to do. As I read NATO defense plans, (At least the public ones) Every thing that the US/UK/WG etc planned was the carefull retreat with attempts to BLEED the Warsaw Pact at EVERY chance. Then drop back to the next firing position. And the next. and so on until the WP was stopped by attrition. THEN the NATO troops would go over to the offensive. This also allowed for Reforger to occur. The US Army/Air Force would have been re-enforced by Reforger, and then able to go on the offensive.

The opportunity placed at their feet by the West German Army was something the rest of NATO had no way to react to except by striking as fast and as far as they could with what they had on hand.

Something else to consider in the NATO offensive. France steps out. Belgium and Netherlands are neutral, but still in NATO. Italy flips over to WP. THe southern flank of NATO is now a REAL mess. As I read NATO, all the Italians had to do was hold the WP in the Alps. Maybe with a tie in to the Swiss defensive positions.

My $0.02

Mike

[dude_uk]

The adjustment for CAN/UK/US from the defensive battle they have prepared for fifty years and the now offensive war they have trained for. Will be a shock, but surely they will have contingencies, plans will have implemented and discussed the moment the Soviets went to China?

[dude_uk]

Oh and after a week of fighting street-to-street, house-to-house, what do you think the effective fighting strength of the Berlin Brigades are?

[Webstral]

Originally Posted by mikeo80

The opportunity placed at their feet by the West German Army was something the rest of NATO had no way to react to except by striking as fast and as far as they could with what they had on hand.

Certainly, the situation in Germany is outside the scope of what was planned for. On the plus side, REFORGER can proceed at a leisurely pace without interference. In the seven weeks following the start of the war, stocks can be shipped to Europe and moved forward. From the standpoint of the American commanders, it’s almost ideal. However, as the war drags on the West Germans are going to require more and more support from the other allies. West German stocks of fuel and ammunition are going to run pretty low after a month of intensive operations. Fortunately, NATO ammunition is more-or-less standardized.

An interesting question is that of consumption by the West Germans versus the carrying capacity of trans-Atlantic convoys. With seven weeks between 07 OCT and 01 DEC, there is plenty of time to assemble shipping for the job. Still, I don’t have a good grasp of the numbers.

The pause between the unavoidable NATO triumph in East Germany and the action in Poland may have as much to do with logistics as politics. After four days of fighting in the Gulf, US forces were running low on some key items. Had the war gone on for another week, there could have been some real bottlenecks affecting the performance of American forces. I expect that the appropriate lessons would have been learned, resulting in somewhat greater stocks of these sensitive items. Still, no matter how you slice it the ability of modern combat units to consume ammunition and spare parts greatly outpaces the peacetime production of these commodities. After two months of fighting by the West Germans and several weeks of fighting with UK, US, and Canadian forces added in, the on-hand stocks in Europe might very well be depleted. It simply might not be possible to press on into Poland until April for reasons of supply, regardless of political considerations.

[Webstral]

Originally Posted by dude_uk

So you suggesting that the Soviets attempt to take West-Berlin as an attempt to avoid encirclement by Anglo-American Forces?

No. Quite the opposite. If the Soviets do go after West Berlin, they will start the offensive the moment NATO enters the fight. If it does take a week for them to capture West Berlin, the job will be done by the time the US Army reaches the outskirts of Berlin. After that, NATO will try to avoid the meat grinder of urban combat by encircling Berlin while driving the Pact out of the rest of the country. If the Pact chooses to defend Berlin with significant forces, they will be isolated inside Berlin.

[kato13]

Originally Posted by Webstral

No. Quite the opposite. If the Soviets do go after West Berlin, they will start the offensive the moment NATO enters the fight. If it does take a week for them to capture West Berlin, the job will be done by the time the US Army reaches the outskirts of Berlin.

In the GDW Third World War gaming series, It usually would take a Cat A combined arms army two weeks to clear out Berlin (If NATO could give air support). The unit proficiency, and defensive advantages of being in a major city would usually keep the Berlin brigades alive and that army tied up until week 3.

I actually rescued 2 of the brigades once (UK and FR IIRC) when the Pact player concentrated almost all reinforcements to other fronts (to get Middle East oil) and played a defensive war in Europe. That actually mimics the T2k scenario better than the straight cold war ones (with the exception of France still being in the fight)

I think the DC group had some very detailed plans for war-gaming this scenario using those rules, maybe someday we will see what they come up with.

[mikeo80]

Web,

The numbers I am going to use are out dated. However it should give you an idea of just how much supply was needed by NATO during the first and second offensive of WWIII.

In WWII, The Allied quartermasters had 28 divisions on the field during the breakout and race to the Seine after D-Day. For offensive operations, each division required 750 tons of supplies per week per division. That is 21000 tons of supplies per week. The French Rail system had been systematically wrecked prior to D-Day. To try and ofset this logjam, and until the Allies could capture Antwerp, the Red Ball Express was created to try and close the gap. At its' peak, the Red Ball was operating over 5900 trucks and delivering 12,000 tons of supplies per week.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Ball_Express

Now we move to the late 20th century. We have seen that the American/British/Canadian offensive consisted of approximately eight divisions. However these are M1A1's, Chieftains and Centurians. Not to mention whatever the German army committed with their Leopard II's.

I would also point to the real world of Desert Storm. During the height of Desert Shield, the Navy logistics was moving 42 thousand tons of cargo into Saudi Arabia PER DAY. This does not include the efforts of the Air Force and the nationalized civilian aircraft.

http://www.history.navy.mil/wars/dstorm/ds4.htm

Web, I think that this give some idea of what amount of supplies Reforger would have to provide to resupply the West Germans and keep the Nato offensive moving forward.

Hope this helps.

My $0.02

Mike