Mobilization Dates in the NATO Vehicle Guide

[Webstral]

When Rainbow Six provided me with a reference to the destruction of Rotterdam based on the NATO Vehicle Guide, I started reading through my v1 edition. I noticed that more than one NATO partner started the mobilization process before the West German invasion of the DDR. In some instances, the mobilization process goes back to mid-1996. I have a bit of a problem with this. The Soviets surely would notice that the British Army and Dutch Army are calling up reservists without an obvious need. The Dutch in particular would be unlikely to support a course of action that would lead to an increased temperature in Europe. I mean, what does NATO tell the Soviet Union when they demand to know why members with no direct involvement in the Far East are mobilizing their troops? At the very least, mobilization of NATO forces in advance of the West German invasion rather strongly suggests that NATO knows about the upcoming invasion. A succession of mobilizations and demobilizations could be passed off as training exercises. A succession of mobilizations that build without anyone going home after two weeks, a month, or whatever is sure to raise suspicions in the Soviet Union. At the very least, they would step up their intelligence gathering and perhaps get some more mines laid behind the western border of the DDR.

[kato13]

I always wrote it off as a bluff to force the Soviet Union to over extend itself. If NATO is strong then it limits the number of Pact forces that can be sent east.

It is a way to support China passively.

[dude_uk]

The UK and Netherlands get lucky? A regular exercise is held at that moment? With other nations holding exercises it gives the Bundeswehr some cover.

I am more concerned with "Sept 15 - British 4th Armoured Division formed at Salisbury." The 4th was a permanent BAOR fixture and based in Germany throughout the Cold war. It should not need to be formed again back in the UK.

Now 2nd Armoured Division being formed from 2nd Infantry would make a lot more sense.

[Webstral]

Before addressing how much cover and/or support mobilization in the NATO allies gives either West German strategic surprise or China’s war effort, I’ll list my findings on mobilization dates. Everything listed below stands out as provocative of the Soviets.

Dutch Army
1st Mech Division: alerted 15 JUL 96, full mobilization on 17 JUL 96
4th Mech Division: alerted 20 JUN 96, full mobilization on 21 JUN 96
5th Mech Division (Reserve): alerted 12 SEP 96, full mobilization 14 SEP 96
101st Mech Brigade (Reserve): alerted 02 OCT 96, full mobilization 05 OCT 96
1st Commando Group, Royal Netherlands Marines: sent to Norway JUL 96

British Army
2nd Armoured Division: “formed up” Summer 1996
4th Armoured Division: formed 15 SEP 96
1st Royal Marine Brigade: deployed to Norway 01 NOV 96
19th Infantry Brigade: “formed up” 08 AUG 96

US Army
116th Armored Cavalry Regiment: alerted 12 JAN 96, deployed to FRG in AUG 96
278th Armored Cavalry Regiment: alerted 21 AUG 96
221st Military Police Brigade: alerted 01 JUL 96
228th Signal Brigade: alerted 25 AUG 96
184th Infantry Brigade: alerted 25 AUG 96
49th Military Police Brigade: alerted 20 AUG 96
43rd Military Police Brigade: alerted 25 AUG 96
35th Engineer Brigade: alerted 25 AUG 96
30th Engineer Brigade: alerted 25 AUG 96
29th Infantry Brigade: alerted 25 AUG 96
1st Infantry Brigade (arctic recon): alerted 03 JUL 96
2nd Infantry Brigade (arctic recon): alerted 03 JUL 96
35th Infantry Division: alerted prior to 23 AUG 96
50th Armored Division: alerted 21 AUG 96

Taken together, these mobilizations would be certain to make the Soviets highly suspicious in advance of the West German coup de main in East Germany. The West Germans are counting on strategic surprise. And yet, the Dutch are bringing their active duty divisions up to full strength in the summer of 1996. A Marine Commando Group heads off to Norway—apparently to stay—in July, 1996. A reserve division gets called up almost a month before the Bundeswehr is supposed to cross the border, and a reserve brigade gets orders on the eve of the invasion. No one in their right minds believes he Dutch are going to take unilateral action against the Soviet Union. The Soviets, being Soviets, would suspect that the Dutch actions fit a bigger picture; and they would look for that bigger picture in West Germany first.

The British mobilization possibly could be written off as belonging to concerns outside Europe. Still, there is a lot of activity in the three months prior to the West German invasion of the DDR. Again, the Soviets have plenty of reason to get excited.

And what is the story with the US Army? There is a lot of activity in late August that would be hard to pass off as an AT, given that most National Guard units are supposed to conduct their AT earlier in the summer. And the units never stand down. Heightened American activity will set off alarms in the Kremlin. Raising Soviet suspicions is not going to help the West Germans.

Now, it’s possible that the Dutch are operating completely in the dark regarding West German intentions. It’s possible that the Brits also are operating in the dark. It’s very unlikely that the US is operating in the dark since the West Germans are going to need an American nuclear guarantee. If the Americans know that the West Germans are going to invade in October, then wouldn’t SACEUR discourage the Dutch from mobilizing and arousing Soviet suspicions? Of course, the Dutch are free to conduct major readiness operations as they see fit. Still, it’s odd.

Perhaps, though, Kato has the right idea in that keeping the Soviets guessing about what is happening in Europe was intended to help the Chinese and backfired. The West Germans failed to go it alone. Perhaps the heightened activity in the US, the UK, and the Netherlands during the three months leading up to 07 OCT 96 caused the Soviets to make just enough preparations to foil the West Germans. Had none of the NATO allies done anything out of the ordinary prior to the West German invasion of East Germany, maybe the West Germans would have reached the Oder. Another division or two might have been withdrawn from the Soviet garrisons in Eastern Europe, along with another air army. This would be in keeping with the Twilight: 2000 theme of errors in judgment all around.

We don’t know what happened in France, Belgium, Italy, or Greece prior to the West German invasion. I’m idly curious. If France conducted a major mobilization exercise, the Soviets surely would have become excited about it.

[raketenjagdpanzer]

Alternately it could be a case of one writer not doing his homework. RPGs are notorious for this: I have the Battletech Technical Readout 3025 and it states that the first manufacture for a given model of Battlemech ('Griffin' IIRC) is the year 2077 or something like that - 700+ years prior to the end of the Star League, and about 500 or so years before the testing of the first Terran Hegemony battlemech as noted in all other sources.

[James Langham]

In my 2.2(ish) background, I had NATO mobilize with the Soviets fighting in China calling up their reserves (similar to the way WW1 escalated). No reason why the same doesn't happen in 1.0. A gradual stand down occurs but the formations remain in place.

On a similar note the RDF Sourcebook and Survivors Guide to the UK have a completely different composition for the MEFF on the same date! And before anyone asks yes I am working on that after I finish 3 Commando Brigade (the 1st Royal Marine Brigade in the game).

[Benjamin]

I use V1 timeline exclusively so in my T2K the Cold War never ends. This of course leaves a decade long gap in the timeline (from the time T2K is released till the in game story starts). Some of this is filled in as bits and pieces by different supplements and there is even some contradictory material.

That being said a lot occurs that is unsaid within the game's history. My thinking is that with a full scale war occurring Asia the US activates a wide range of pre-established war plans. And in doing so convinces several other NATO nations to do the same. We know that the US and other western allies are sending a large amount of military material to China. This has to anger the USSR. To counter this the Soviets look for ways to interdict US shipping and divert their attention. I'm betting that there are a lot of nasty incidents over the skies of Alaska, Korea, the Sea of Japan, and even northern Europe. Not to mention the secret submarine warfare that is growing ever more deadly throughout the Western Pacific and North Atlantic.

It doesn't matter much that the only two nations actually at war are the Soviet Union and China. The US must act like this is the big one or else get caught unawares when the fighting spreads. Like WWI once the ball gets rolling its almost impossible to stop.

Benjamin