T2K in space

[RN7]

As part of my ongoing write up about Germany in T2K I've touched on the low level space race that existed in the 1990's. Does anyone think the militarisation of space is feasible in the T2K setting of this time period?

The period had all the right ingredients for it. Renewed East-West rivalry and large funding available for prestige and one-upmanship projects. At the time space stations, and manned reusable and rocket launched spacecraft existed. There were ongoing US, Soviet, Chinese and European military satellite programmes, as well as the US military SDI and ASAT programmes and the lesser known Soviet ones.

The Soviet Mir space station was in orbit at the time (1986-1996). The Soviet planned to replace it with the larger Mir-2 space station in the 1990's, and the US was planning the even larger Freedom space station. Both stations were eventually cancelled and were morphed into the current International Space Station.

The US Space Shuttle programme produced the Columbia (Destroyed in 2003), Challenger (Destroyed in 1986), Discovery, Atlantis and Endeavour, as well as the never flown Enterprise. I've always been partial to the USAF taking control of the Enterprise and rebuilding it for military flights into orbit. The rival Soviet Space Shuttle produced the Buran which was flown unmanned in 1988. If the USSR hadn't broken up I'm sure the Soviets would have used it for manned flights, and the Ptichka was over 95% complete when the Soviet shuttle programme was cancelled. The Soviets/Russians maintained a rocket launched manned spacecraft programme throughout the period but who knows what might have been? The US DoD and NASA were working on a number of Space Shuttle replacements at the time and the European Space Agency (France) was also tinkering with the Hermes Spaceplane project, and the British were (and still are) working on air-breathing spaceplanes. I'm sure the USAF and Soviet Air Force had some ideas about space marines on shuttles and space stations.

The USA, USSR, China, France, Israel and Japan were all launching military imagery and SIGINT spy satellites at the time, while Britain, Italy and West Germany had the technology to build them, and India, Iran, South Korea and Turkey had plans to launch them.

Someone brought up the USAF ASM-135 ASAT programme a few years ago stating that there was a real possibility it may have continued after its official cancellation as a Black Project. Certainly the US put a great deal of effort into SDI in the late 1980's and 1990's. The current Space Based Infrared System programme owes its origins to this period. Space based energy weapons such as X-ray lasers, chemical lasers, particle beams and rail guns may have been a bit too far fetched, but the Brilliant Pebbles space based interceptor with a kinetic warhead projectiles, and the ground based Homing Overlay Experiment had a lot of promise. I've always wanted to fit the YAL-1 airborne laser onto a space shuttle in orbit and see what happens!

From the late 1960's the Soviets developed a fractional orbital bombardment system from an ICBM, and secretly deployed a regiment of them until it was deactivated in 1983 as part of the SALT II treaty. The Salyut 3 space station in the 1970's was fitted with a 23mm canon, and the Terra-3 Shuttle attack rumour about a ground based laser in Sary Shagan targeting the Challenger in 1984 is still a popular story. The Soviets did develop a prototype laser pistol for cosmonauts and armed cosmonauts with a triple barrelled TP-82 pistols.

[Targan]

Originally Posted by RN7

Someone brought up the USAF ASM-135 ASAT programme a few years ago stating that there was a real possibility it may have continued after its official cancellation as a Black Project.

That's exactly what happened in my last campaign. From 1988 until the Twilight War it was a black project and the USAF had a number of successful ASAT kills using it during the war. An NPC in the PC's group from Poland all the way back to CONUS was an F-15 pilot who had taken one of those ASAT kills. He ended up being sent to Europe as a fighter squadron reinforcement once the ASAT launches ended, I guess some time in 1997 or maybe early 98.

[Raellus]

That's some really interesting stuff, RN7. I wasn't aware of a lot of it. As a v1.0 timeliner, I think that, had the Cold War continued apace for another 5-6 years (from '89 to 95) before limited nuclear war began, you would have seen a lot of IRL-cancelled defense programs reach their planned/hoped-for conclusion. I imagine that some of those programs that would have come to fruition would have involved the Space Race and an increased militarization of same.

If you'd care to share any more details about where things were going through the '90s, I'd really like to read about them.

[kato13]

I've always operated under the assumption that the end game of the space war, when one side (probably the Soviets) decides it has more to gain than lose, is that they would destroy all satellites.

A satellite would have an explosive charge surrounded by thousands of small ball bearings. If war breaks out, an encrypted message will cause it to explode, polluting space with hundreds of ball bearings that circle the planet for years and destroy numerous satellites. This may result in a new version of the Cold War Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) concept. If war occurs, a nation may blow up their MAD satellites and pollute space with killer ball bearings that destroy everyone's satellites.

http://www.warandpeace.ru/en/news/view/11234/

[RN7]

Originally Posted by Raellus

That's some really interesting stuff, RN7. I wasn't aware of a lot of it. As a v1.0 timeliner, I think that, had the Cold War continued apace for another 5-6 years (from '89 to 95) before limited nuclear war began, you would have seen a lot of IRL-cancelled defense programs reach their planned/hoped-for conclusion. I imagine that some of those programs that would have come to fruition would have involved the Space Race and an increased militarization of same.

If you'd care to share any more details about where things were going through the '90s, I'd really like to read about them.

The United States SDI (Strategic Defence Initiative) featured a number of defence programmes initiated by the Reagan administration in the 1980s to defend North America against nuclear ballistic missiles. Changing times at the end of the Cold War led to a refocusing of the entire programme. In 1991 Bush Senior shifted the focus of SDI from defence of North America against large scale strikes to a system focusing on theatre missile defence. In 1993 Clinton further shifted the focus to ground-based interceptor missiles and theatre scale systems, forming the Ballistic Missile Defence Organization (BMDO) and closed the SDI. Ballistic missile defence was revived by Bush Junior as the National Missile Defence and Ground-based Midcourse Defence. Although most of the SDI programmes never came to fruition the work did filter down to later military projects and spin off technologies.

The SDI was based around ground-based, direct energy weapons and space-based programmes.

Ground based programmes were based around three projects.

1) Extended Range Interceptor (ERINT): The ERINT program was an extension of the Flexible Lightweight Agile Guided Experiment (FLAGE), which developed hit-to-kill technology and demonstrated the guidance accuracy of a small, agile, radar-homing vehicle. FLAGE scored a direct hit against a Lance missile in flight at White Sands Missile Range in 1987. ERINT was a prototype missile similar to the FLAGE, but it used a new solid-propellant rocket motor allowing it to fly faster and higher. ERINT was later chosen as the Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3) missile by Clinton.

2) Homing Overlay Experiment (HOE): HOE was the first Army system that employed hit-to-kill. Four test launches were conducted in 1983 and 1984 at the Kwajalein Missile Range. The first three tests failed because of guidance and sensor problems, but the fourth test was successful. This technology was used by the SDI and expanded into the (ERIS) program.

3) Exoatmospheric Re-entry-vehicle Interception System (ERIS): Developed as part of the ground based interceptor part of SDI in 1985. At least two tests occurred in the early 1990s, but the system was never deployed. ERIS technology was used in the later (THAAD) system and the Ground Based Interceptor currently deployed as part of the Ground-Based Midcourse Defence (GMD) system.

Directed-energy weapon (DEW) programmes was centred around five projects.

1) X-Ray lasers: This project focused on a curtain of X-ray lasers powered by nuclear explosions. The curtain was to be deployed by missiles launched from submarines during the critical seconds following a Soviet attack, then later by satellites and powered by nuclear warheads built into the satellites. In theory the energy from the nuclear warhead detonation was to pump a series of laser emitters in the missiles/satellites and produce an impenetrable barrier to incoming warheads. The first test in 1983 was known as the Cabra event performed in an underground shaft. It wasn't a success and the failure of X-ray lasers became a reason for some to oppose SDI. Despite the apparent failure of the Cabra test, the long term legacy led to spin-offs including a laboratory x-ray laser for biological imaging and creation of 3D holograms of living organisms, the creation of advanced materials , the Electron-Beam Ion Trap facility for physics research and enhancing techniques for early detection of breast cancer.

2) Chemical lasers: The USAF tested a deuterium fluoride laser known as Mid-Infrared Advanced Chemical Laser (MIRACL) at White Sands Missile Range in 1985. During a simulation the laser successfully destroyed a Titan missile booster and it was successfully tested on target drones simulating cruise missiles for the US Navy. After the SDI closed, MIRACL was unsuccessfully tested on an old Air Force Satellite for potential use as an anti-satellite weapon. The technology was also used to develop the Tactical High Energy Laser which is being tested to shoot down artillery shells.

3) Neutral Particle Beam: In 1989 the Beam experiments aboard a sounding rocket containing a neutral particle beam (NPB) accelerator. The experiment successfully demonstrated that a particle beam would operate and propagate as predicted outside the atmosphere and that there are no unexpected side-effects to firing the beam in space. After the rocket was recovered, the particle beam was still operational. The research on neutral particle beam accelerators could eventually be used to reduce the half life of nuclear waste products using accelerator-driven transmutation technology.

4) Laser and mirror experiments: The High Precision Tracking Experiment (HPTE) was launched on the Space Shuttle Discovery in 1985, and a Hawaii-based low-power laser successfully tracked the experiment and bounced the laser off of the HPTE mirror. In 1990 the Relay mirror experiment (RME) demonstrated critical technologies for space-based relay mirrors to be used with an SDI Directed-energy weapon system, such as that a laser could be relayed from the ground to a 60 cm mirror on an orbiting satellite and back to another ground station with a high degree of accuracy and for extended durations. The Atmospheric Compensation Experiment (LACE) satellite was used to help develop SDI technology such as target discrimination using background radiation and tracking ballistic missiles using ultra-violet plume Imaging.

5) Hypervelocity Rail Gun: Research on hypervelocity rail gun technology was done to apply the technology to defence system. The SDI rail gun called the Compact High Energy Capacitor Module Advanced Technology Experiment (CHECMATE), was able to fire two projectiles per day during the experiment which was an improvement over previous efforts, which were only able to achieve about one shot per month. Hypervelocity rail guns are, at least conceptually, an attractive alternative to a space-based defence system because of their envisioned ability to quickly shoot at many targets. Also, since only the projectile leaves the gun, a rail gun system can potentially fire many times before needing to be resupplied.

Space based programmes were based around a space based interceptor and four sensor projects.

1) Brilliant Pebbles: The Brilliant Pebbles was a non-nuclear system of satellite-based, watermelon-sized, mini-missiles designed to use a high-velocity kinetic warhead. It was designed to operate in conjunction with the Brilliant Eyes sensor system and would have detected and destroyed missiles without any external guidance. The technologies developed for Brilliant Pebbles were used in later projects such as sensors and cameras that became components of the Clementine mission and SDI technologies may also have a role in future missile defence efforts. Brilliant Pebbles was considered the most capable and feasible of all the SDI projects. The project was cancelled in 1994 but it is being re-evaluated for possible future use.

2) Boost Surveillance and Tracking System (BSTS): BSTS was part of the SDI and was designed to assist detection of missile launches especially during the boost phase. However, once the SDI program shifted toward theater missile defence, the system was transferred to the Air Force.

3) Space Surveillance and Tracking System (SSTS): SSTS was designed for tracking ballistic missiles during their mid-course phase. It was designed to work in conjunction with BSTS, but was later scaled down for the Brilliant Eyes program.

4) Brilliant Eyes: The Brilliant Eyes was a simpler derivative of the SSTS that focused on theater ballistic missiles rather than ICBMs and was meant to operate in conjunction with the Brilliant Pebbles system. Brilliant Eyes was renamed Space and Missile Tracking System (SMTS) and scaled back further under Clinton, and in the late 1990s it became the low earth orbit component of the USAF Space Based Infrared System (SBIRS).

5) Delta 183: The Delta 183 program used a satellite known as Delta Star to test several sensor related technologies. Delta Star carried infrared imagery, a long-wave infrared imager, and an ensemble of imagers and photometers covering several visible and ultraviolet bands as well as a laser detector and ranging device. The satellite observed several ballistic missile launches including some releasing liquid propellant as a countermeasure to detection. Data from the experiments led to advances in sensor technologies.


The Soviet response to SDI was relatively unknown. They did possess ABM's and had secretly developed and deployed the Fractional Orbital Bombardment System (FOBS). FOBS was a Soviet ICBM program that after launch would go into a low Earth orbit and would then de-orbit for an attack. It had no range limit and the orbital flight path would not reveal the target location. This would allow a path to North America over the South Pole, hitting targets from the south, which is the opposite direction from which NORAD early warning systems are oriented. The Outer Space Treaty banned nuclear weapons in Earth orbit. However, it did not ban systems that were capable of placing weapons in orbit, and the Soviet Union avoided violating the treaty by conducting tests of its FOBS system without live warheads. The Soviets developed three missiles to employ FOBS, but only one of them ever entered service the R-36ORB.

Development of the R-36ORB missile began in 1962 and had some advantages over a conventional ICBM. Its range was limited only by the parameters of the orbit that the re-entry vehicle has been placed into, and the re-entry vehicle may come from either direction, compelling the enemy to build considerably more expensive anti-missile systems. Due to the possibility of placing the warhead in orbit and keeping it there for some time, it is possible to reduce the time required to strike to just a few minutes. It is also much more difficult to predict where the warhead will land, since while the re-entry vehicle is on orbit, it is a very small object with few distinguishing marks and is hard to detect; moreover, since the warhead can be commanded to land anywhere along the orbit's ground track, even detecting the warhead on orbit does not allow accurate prediction of its intended target. The basic difference to a conventional ICBM was the design of the re-entry vehicle, which is fitted with a nuclear warhead, the de-orbit engine and the control block. The control system uses independent inertial navigation and radar-based altimeter which measures orbit parameters twice—in the beginning of an orbital path and just before de-orbiting engine firing. The first and the only regiment of 18 launchers was deployed in 1969.

Declassified CIA files on a likely Soviet reaction to SDI concluded a number of points.

In the near term (1985-1995) the Soviets are likely to deploy a number of systems to defeat SDI such as building a larger numbers of boosters, decoys, and penetration aids. Also they would continue the trend to solid-propellant missiles, which tend to be structurally less vulnerable to continuous-wave (CW) laser damage and has higher acceleration than liquid-propellant ICBMS. Further increasing the number of re-entry vehicles systems currently deployed or in development. The Soviet are likely to use ablative coatings of the airframes of sea based systems and continuously rolling airframes would be possible by the end of the century, as would initial measures to reduce or mask visible, infrared, and radar signatures of boosters, PBVS, and RVs. By the end of the midterm, new SLBMs designed specifically against currently proposed US defensive systems could be in test or the early stages of deployment. These, like the ICBMs of that time, could incorporate airframes designed to minimize vulnerability to CW and pulsed laser effects, high-acceleration boosters, and multiple PBVs that could rapidly dispense RVs and decoys. Advanced signature reduction techniques for boosters and RVs could also become available at this time. Deploy more long-ranged cruise missiles, and deploy the Blackjack bomber to perfect its use as a carrier of cruise missiles and gravity bombs to intercontinental ranges. Various penetration aids, principally electronic warfare equipment, will be installed and upgraded. It is possible that the Soviets could adapt a large aircraft, perhaps the IL-86, to serve as a cruise missile carrier in addition to the new Bear variant. Mid to long term Soviet plans and strategies post 1995 were purely subjective, but were ambitious enough to have caused SDI serious difficulties.

[mikeo80]

IMHO, a lot of the anti-satellite work could have been done with the use of EMP in space. A few large mega-ton range weapons detonated at 120-150 miles would have fried a lot of the existing satellites. IF you use V1.0, with the continuing cold war, the US had the Titan ICBM's with 5+ mega-ton warheads. The USSR had the SS-18 with 25 mega-ton. One or two of these would have created havoc.

Of course, this use would have been a MAD type of response. I do not know if these weapons would have been released with the (relatively) small exchanges of v1.0 or v2.2. One thing both the US and the USSR were trying to do was prevent the all out exchange of weapons. Either side seeing an ICBM launching would have been TERRIFIED. And determined to get what ever they could of the rest of the weapons out of their silos.

Just a thought.

My $0.02

Mike

[Sanjuro]

I remember reading an article in the early 80s about potential Soviet threats to satellites in geosynchronous orbit; unfortunately I cannot remember the source.
The essence was a rocket launched which would slingshot around the moon, then enter the geosynchronous orbit altitude in the opposite direction to geosynchronous orbit. When it exploded, instead of using ball-bearings, it would release pellets of expanded polystyrene.
Given the relative velocities, these pellets would be just as effective as ball-bearings in destroying satellites. However, after a short time, these pellets would evaporate, making the geo orbits available for future use.

[RN7]

Originally Posted by mikeo80

IMHO, a lot of the anti-satellite work could have been done with the use of EMP in space. A few large mega-ton range weapons detonated at 120-150 miles would have fried a lot of the existing satellites. IF you use V1.0, with the continuing cold war, the US had the Titan ICBM's with 5+ mega-ton warheads. The USSR had the SS-18 with 25 mega-ton. One or two of these would have created havoc.

Of course, this use would have been a MAD type of response. I do not know if these weapons would have been released with the (relatively) small exchanges of v1.0 or v2.2. One thing both the US and the USSR were trying to do was prevent the all out exchange of weapons. Either side seeing an ICBM launching would have been TERRIFIED. And determined to get what ever they could of the rest of the weapons out of their silos.

Just a thought.

My $0.02

Mike

I think the problem with nukes into orbit would be the Outer Space Treaty signed by the USA, USSR and the UK in 1967, and later signed by all other nuclear armed states such as China, France, India, Israel and Pakistan, as most of the rest of the world as well.

The Outer Space Treaty bars states party to the treaty from placing nuclear weapons of any kind or any other weapons of mass destruction in Earth orbit, installing them on the Moon or any other celestial body, or to otherwise station them in outer space. It expressly prohibits the use of nuclear weapons for testing weapons of any kind, conducting military manoevers, or establishing military installations.

[boogiedowndonovan]

Awesome thread!

Just a point for Cannnon followers. The v2.2 timeline implies that there were some orbital space stations or "laboratories".

Under the 1999 timeline "Even scientific stations in the antarctic,and orbiting space laboratories, are abandoned as the war drags on."

I can't remember if this sentence exists in V1 or V2.0.

I guess we can assume that the USA has a space station, perhaps keeping or revamping Skylab? Or maybe the "free" nations got an early start on the International Space Station.

I am kind of partial to the MIRACL laser which RN7 mentioned, since it was operational during the timeline and was used in a successful ASAT test in 1997.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MIRACL

Although out of the timeline, I thought the YAL-1 was an interesting concept.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/YAL-1