Ukraine Fun & Games

[schnickelfritz]

I've been thinking about the Ukraine-Russia situation, and while not wanting to start WW3...at least until I can take one last vacation to Orlando, LOL, I'm starting to tire of the bully routine I see from old "Pooty-Poot."

I'm wondering if we need to look seriously at a "Desert Shield" scenario with a line in the sand (mud, whatever), backed not necessarily with ground troops, but by aircraft with a known anti-tank mission.

What my thought was is that the Ukrainians would set up a AAA umbrella using the Tankguska and ZSU-23-4 and whatever SAM's they have operational.

With that up, we would base A-10's and AH-64's from Ukrainian bases, probably with some F-15/F-16 support. F-22's would be available should it really get bad out of Turkey.

Communication with the Russians would be important....basically..."you go no further." "Take your forces and go home and we do the same."

I would also encourage the Poles to base some assets there and provide more military assistance to them in the form of better fighters. I doubt they want to feel a neo-Soviet boot on their necks either.

Thoughts?

Dave

[Targan]

Personally I'd love to see a scenario like that play out. Practically, not going to happen (sadly).

[pmulcahy11b]

Originally Posted by schnickelfritz

I'm wondering if we need to
I would also encourage the Poles to base some assets there and provide more military assistance to them in the form of better fighters. I doubt they want to feel a neo-Soviet boot on their necks either.

Thoughts?

Dave

The Polish and Romanians have shown some willingness to conduct a peacekeeping mission. Now, the source for that is Senator McCain, who is a big whooping warhawk, but what he said sounds plausible.

[stormlion1]

Not really going to work though. Russia is sitting on top of the Ukraine much less the Crimea while any other force would have to be flown in and would be vulnerable while they set up. The Russians could easily interdict any Desert Shield scenario. I honestly believe this is all over but the shouting.

[mikeo80]

Originally Posted by stormlion1

Not really going to work though. Russia is sitting on top of the Ukraine much less the Crimea while any other force would have to be flown in and would be vulnerable while they set up. The Russians could easily interdict any Desert Shield scenario. I honestly believe this is all over but the shouting.

I agree with Stormlion. The Russians got what they wanted. No one is going to do much about it. Any one have a guess where the next "annexation" will occur?

My $0.02

Mike

[kalos72]

If this does happen/stay, which we all know it will, it will begin the down ward spiral for us world-wide. NATO / EU / US power will be severely reduced...

But what real options do we have? Send troops to the Baltic and try to force him out?

WWIII with Russia isn't a great scenario...sanctions and political crap are all we have.

Maybe someone will start working on a small fusion reactor now to reduce the dependency on oil.

[Webstral]

The only military solution with any teeth that I can see is an offer of NATO membership to the Ukraine. The Ukraine would have to accept, and a minimum of 250,000 NATO troops would have to go in as soon as logistical realities would allow. The end game would look much like West Germany with contingents from all of the NATO partners based in the country, plus a new set of POMCUS sites established. If the Russians intervene after Ukrainian membership in NATO has been made official, then there is a long term option regardless of how things go in the short term. At the very least, we'd get to find out if the engineering decisions made regarding the M1 played out favorably under less optimal circumstances than during Operation Desert Storm. We'd also get to find out who made the best choices regarding aircraft design.