Unrealistic/impossible/hard-to-believe aspects in the Twilight 2000 backstory

[John Farson]

The discussion on the "Your thoughts on the (canon) Presidential line of succession?" has once again made me think about this.

Before I start I'd like to reiterate that I'm a fan of T2k (as if my posting here didn't make it obvious ) and am not looking for a flame-war. I just feel that much as I like the world as described, I should also be honest and point out aspects that, to be charitable, likely wouldn't occur in such a scenario. Of course, I fully accept that what I might consider unrealistic would not be considered so by someone else. So, with that out of the way:

1) The collapse of the US presidential line of succession, the Joint Chiefs of Staff taking over and the US government and military divided between Milgov and Civgov.

As was pretty much said in the aforementioned canon line of succession thread, such a scenario would have been nigh impossible, as there were (and are) something to the effect of 60 people on the line of succession and all sorts of precautionary measures in place, many of which are likely still classified. Also, with the world on the brink of war, no way in hell would the Speaker of the House (or anyone else on the chain for that matter) be allowed to go on holiday in some remote and inaccessible location. Likewise, there would have always been at least one member of the line of succession being kept in a secure location, with rotations, just to prevent such a scenario from occurring.

From a game perspective, I understand why GDW wrote the scenario: in order for the United States to fall into anarchy, become divided between two rival governments, and make it more vulnerable to foreign invasion. However, it still doesn't make it any less of a contrivance for me.

Which brings me to my next point:

2) The Soviet/Russian invasion of Alaska and the Mexican-Soviet/Russian invasion of the southern United States.

Again, from a game-playing perspective I get it why GDW added this in. When T2k first came out in 1984 movies like Red Dawn were in vogue, and GDW was trying to cash in on the "America under siege" craze. Likewise I'm sure players wanted to re-enact the events of Red Dawn for themselves. That still doesn't make it any less difficult for me to comprehend. Why, with nuclear war imminent, would the Russians waste resources into some pie-in-sky invasion of Alaska and the Canadian west coast? Even with the war, wouldn't the Americans - and Canadians -still have enough naval assets to prevent such landings?

For that matter, why would the Mexican government - any government, whether run by the PRI or some other party - agree to let in the Soviet Division Cuba, knowing that any location where the division was placed might as well paint a giant bull's eye on themselves? And once the bombs had fallen, why on earth would the Mexican government risk America's wrath in a hare-brained invasion of Texas and other states on the border, when you consider that the US might - and definitely would - still have nukes in reserve, especially in the limited nuclear war scenario posited by T2k? In a situation where the nukes had already flown, where millions of Americans were dead, I would imagine that no US government would have any qualms whatsoever in using nukes to stop the Mexican invasion. Of course, the same goes for the Russians in Alaska.

The only situation where I could see the Mexicans deploy forces on the US side of the border would be if there was an uncontrollable flood of American refugees heading south towards Mexico. Even then, the Mexicans would only want to secure the border in the form of establishing some sort of buffer zone rather than advancing all the way to San Antonio or L.A. Of course, there would likely also be Mexican refugees fleeing north, so you might very well have a situation where both the US and Mexican armies would seek to establish a buffer zone for themselves and come to cross-purposes...

3. The limited nuclear war scenario.

Again, I understand why GDW wrote the Twilight War as having been a limited nuclear war. First of all, because it had originally been written as backstory for 2300, in which WWIII had been a limited nuclear war. Also, in the 1980s, before the fall of the USSR, there was all sorts of talk about how nuclear war didn't necessarily have to be a total exchange, that there could be a limited version as well. Finally, a full exchange scenario would just be another Gamma World.

However, with the fall of the Soviet Union and (some) opening of Soviet archives, as well as a more and more better understanding of Soviet (and Russian) nuclear doctrine over the past 20+ years, it's become more and more certain that any resorting to nuclear weapons in an East-West conflict would have rapidly escalated into a full exchange scenario. No one in Russia would wait to see what the other nuclear powers were planning to do, nuclear war doesn't work that way. It's all based on a strike plan that is pre-written, you simply don't have time to do much else. Probably 80-90% of the weapons would be used or lost in the first hour. Nowadays the relative reduction of land based weapons as part of the nuclear triad means that more weapons are likely to survive the first strike/counter-strike.

Even if the Russians used only against NATO, "direct allies" and the U.S. (and the PRC, there is ZERO chance that the PRC is left alone here, by either side), that leaves pretty much all of the Northern Hemisphere a smoking hole, along with the Persian Gulf Region. India would be likely, almost certain in fact, to be hit by the PRC and in return would strike back, usage against Pakistan is likely as well, with Pakistani response. If Russia goes after direct U.S. allies that would include Israel, putting the Israelis into the "use 'em or lose 'em" category.

This doesn't even go into the possibility of other WMDs being used, such as chemical and biological weapons...

A person in another forum that I frequent actually put all this very well. He explained that what is generally forgotten is that Nuclear War isn't really war at all. It is a matter of ensuring that you defeat the enemy more permanently than he defeats you. That means you go after as much potential supporting infrastructure as you can, even if the enemy doesn't own it. If the enemy could use it, you hit it if you can. That is where you get the irony of BOTH SIDES hitting some targets, simply to be sure the other side is denied them.

Nuclear War is not logical, it is impossible to limit, escalation is inevitable . There are far more than enough open source studies that demonstrate this. The birds fly, they all fly.

...

Again, I'm not looking for a fight. I'm just stating my opinions here, and explaining them as well as I can.

[Raellus]

I agree with the topics that you argued were handled more or less unrealistically. That said, I think that the creators of T2K did the best they could with what they had. The ends, in this case, largely justified the means.

Their primary objective was to create a gritty, relatively low-tech, somewhat chaotic game world where the PCs could face multiple foes and make some kind of difference, at least on a local level. As you acknowledge in your piece, each of the "unrealistic" bits were necessary measures to create the game world they desired. For almost any near-future fiction to survive close scrutiny, some degree of suspension of disbelief must take place on the part of audience. As an entity, the sum of T2K's parts is of such quality that most fans are willing to overlook certain "unrealistic" aspects of the game world in order to enjoy the whole. I certainly fall into that camp. Frankly, having given all of the issues you mentioned a lot of informed thought, I'm not sure how the creators could have done any better without significantly altering the finished game world. If the U.S. isn't a divided, devastated mess, there aren't as many opportunities for adventure or for the PCs to make a real difference there. If there's no limited exchange, the global post-apocalyptic conditions that are a cornerstone of the game (low tech, low fuel, etc.) can't exist.

[Olefin]

I think that the limited exchange makes sense in many ways up to a point - but it breaks down big time at The Thanksgiving Day Massacre

that is hardly a limited exchange - basically the Soviets killed off a lot of the US population in that one series of attacks- more than enough for surviving generals with no civilian control to order an all out strike - especially after what the Soviets had already done to China

that many warheads hitting that many cities, with no US President in place and the military free to retaliate as much as they wished? Most likely the retaliatory strike would have been emptying the silos and subs - especially the subs if they went out of contact. Many would have had orders if they were out of contact for a specific time in wartime to fire the missiles on their own authority.

Especially since the EMP effects on the US were limited to those caused by nukes themselves going off - there was no large scale EMP attack on the US as there was in Warday that basically took out ever electronic device in the entire US

But even a limited strike can have a heck of an effect - read WarDay sometime if you want to see what they postulated that would have done to the US - basically the country broke up into individual states with almost no central government left - and that was with a lot of British and Japanese help - in the Twilight 2000 scenario, without that help, you could see it being a lot lot worse

[Olefin]

Oh and I see nothing wrong with either the Soviet invasion of Alaska (but there alone, the rest was pushing it, especially considering when it happened) or the Mexican invasion - but I agree with you - Mexico would have been nuked till she glowed - which can be used in the game - basically you can say the Mexicans are still here because the US turned their nation into radioactive debris - i.e. they arent going home because there is no Mexico left to go home to

so holding on in CA, AZ, NM and TX isnt a territory grab in 2001 - they are there because they dont have anywhere else to go

[StainlessSteelCynic]

Ultimately, a lot of what happened in the T2k backstory is unrealistic - very much so, to the point of Red Dawn/Invasion USA/Commando/any other 80s action war film cheesy badness unrealistic - but as has been mentioned a number of times before, GDW was not striving for realism, they were striving for exciting, interesting & fun gameplay.
A lot of what happens to the USA during the Twilight War comes down to GDW wanting to recreate the chaos of Europe so that the Players can have the same sort of adventures when their characters arrive back in the US.

If the USA was left in the kind of "almost untouched/more realistic" state that some people in past forums have wanted, the characters would return to the US, get reintegrated into the military and "realistically" end up doing garrison duty or worse, they'd be discharged from the military and have to find a civilian job - boring! Who the hell wants to play that for a game?

The authors stated that they wanted to make a game where the characters could go on adventures like the characters in AD&D do but instead of a fantasy medieval world, this game would be set in the 1980s/1990s of our world. In the "realistic" view, once the characters have finished in Europe and are returning to the USA, the game is over, time for the Players to put away their characters and look for another game... unless of course, the USA is in the same sort of mess as Europe, then you can continue the adventure anew.

[rcaf_777]

to quote a great man “I reject your reality and substitute it for my own.”

Here I spin I was thinking about

1. The Twilight War starts and happens as per Red Storm Rising including the truce at the end with Poland is split into east and west half

2. The war also sees the Soviet make a drive into Iran as per Sword Point.

3. A group of Soviet Hardlinng manage to seal a small nuclear device and lunch at the USSR from Turkey, Thinking this is a attck the Soviet begin lanching weapon aimed NATO and the US

4. Moments after the Soviet attack is launched, the president of the United States receives a teleprinter message from the Soviet leader, informing him of the response as well as discovery that the first missile was launched by renegades. He says the USSR is willing to absorb a proportionate U.S. counterstrike that would kill between six and nine million people though the Soviets will retaliate for any larger counterattack, making all-out nuclear exchange likely. To further add to the turmoil, China launches its own strike against the Soviets in accordance with a treaty with the United States.

5. The national Command Authoirty then tells the president the Soviets have launched a second attack, seemingly confirming that the Soviet Union was being untruthful. As Marine One prepares to evacuate the President from the White House, the Emergency War Orders officer receives a teleprinter message informing him that the second nuclear strike was directed at the Chinese, not the U.S. However, while Marine One is en route to Dover Air Force Base, another nuclear burst downs the helicopter.

6. With the president, vice president and senior constitutional successors assumed dead, the Secretary of the Interior, found near Baton Rouge, is installed as president in accordance with the order of succession.

7. The oringal US President then broadcast a stand message form a FEMA shelter in Maryland (I think this sets a MIL and CIV Gov very nicely)

This section is as per Dawn's Early Light

8. The condtion of the US is a long the lines of War Day

9. Canada has taken Alaska, and Mexcio Controls part of Texas Arzonia and NM, with two weak Federal Governments many State Goverments are in total control ( Still have EMP Strikes, Nuclear fall out and a huge amount of people trying to survie)

10. US Forces in Europe primary in Polnad along a DMZ but the Eight Ball adventure would still be in play (See Eastern European Source book)

Thoughs?

[Bullet Magnet]

Originally Posted by StainlessSteelCynic

they'd be discharged from the military and have to find a civilian job - boring! Who the hell wants to play that for a game?

GM: "OK, the dink in the suit asks you, 'So...WHY do you want to work here?'"
Player: "I tell him, "When I was dodging mortar fire over in the war, I realized, what I really wanted to do with my life is sell fishing tackle.'"

Hey, with a job market in the toilet, Player Characters trying to find work could drag out into almost a campaign unto itself.

[John Farson]

Originally Posted by StainlessSteelCynic

A lot of what happens to the USA during the Twilight War comes down to GDW wanting to recreate the chaos of Europe so that the Players can have the same sort of adventures when their characters arrive back in the US.

If the USA was left in the kind of "almost untouched/more realistic" state that some people in past forums have wanted, the characters would return to the US, get reintegrated into the military and "realistically" end up doing garrison duty or worse, they'd be discharged from the military and have to find a civilian job - boring! Who the hell wants to play that for a game?

To be sure, even a US where someone in the line of succession became president after the nuclear strike and the government and military remained united would not be "almost untouched".

There's an excellent timeline at the alternatehistory.com site called "The Cuban Missile War Timeline" where, as the name implies, the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962 goes nuclear. To make a long story short, the US utterly curb-stomps the Soviets due to the vast disparity in the number of nuclear weapons between the two. Even so, the US also suffers heavy losses, as well as disruption in communications and transportation, with mass rioting and unrest that is only quelled with martial law and thousands being summarily shot.

And all this was the result of the far paltrier Soviet armament of 1962. One can only imagine how America would look like after a total exchange in 1997. Even a limited exchange would be more destructive than the one in 1962. I imagine that in the aftermath the government would be forced to concentrate troops and resources in key strategic areas and routes, leaving more remote places to more or less fend for themselves for an undetermined amount of time. Such areas would come to resemble the Wild West, I think. Therefore I think that any soldiers returning from Europe would still have plenty to do before they'd be discharged: the government will need every able-bodied person they can find. And a small group could definitely move out into the more remote, lawless areas and become like the Seven Samurai or Magnificent Seven.