OT? A New Cold War

[Raellus]

"History doesn't repeat itself but it often rhymes." -misattributed to Mark Twain

I find the evolving dynamic between the Russia and the West (NATO et al) fascinating. As a Cold War kid, historian, and T2K enthusiast, I see unsettling parallels between the current strained relationship between Putin's Russia and Europe/the U.S.A. I also see significant differences.

In the past two weeks, Russia sent several flights of combat aircraft into NATO airspace, tested a new ballistic missile, and may have snuck a submarine into and out of Swedish waters. Why? The following article does a good job of explaining why Russia may have initiated these fairly significant provocations.

http://www.bloombergview.com/article...ato?cmpid=yhoo

Where is all of this going? It's fairly clear that Russia is attempting to reestablish a layer of protective buffer states between itself and NATO. Russia likely sees the West as an existential threat, social, economic, and or military. Is fear causing Russia's aggressive disregard for contemporary international norms? Is Russia simply trying to reestablish its lost status as a world superpower?

Either way, the continuing escalation in provocative behaviors between Russia and NATO could very well lead to a shooting war. A pet project of Rainbow Six's and mine is rebooting the T2K concept by bringing it into the near future, incorporating history (since v.10 and v2.2), current events, and projections based on careful analysis of such.

I intend to use this thread as a clearinghouse for articles dedicated to developments in this "New Cold War", for those of you interested in current events, modern military science, and possible ramifications thereof in a near-future T2K scenario. Feel free to post your own links and/or make your own comments.

[RN7]

I'd say Putin is doing his best to expand Russian political influence over the former Soviet republics, and as the article states how independent are the former Soviet states from Russia in reality? There are at least 15 million ethnic Russians still living in these countries and their economies are still closely linked and dependent on Russia. Particularly through Russian energy exports to them, and Russia's guarantee of their security through its strategic nuclear forces and its air defence capabilities. However there is also a lot of resistance to Russian interference in their affairs for example the Ukraine, the Baltic States and Georgia, and Russia has its own troublesome ethnic minorities such as the Chechens.

However beyond the old Soviet borders Russia will have a lot of trouble regaining the political influence that the Soviet Union once had. In Europe most of the old Warsaw Pact nations are now part of NATO as are the Baltic States, and Germany is united. All of Europe's neutral countries are Western democracies, and the only ally that Russia has in Europe is Serbia although there may be some lingering pro-Russian sentiment among the Eastern Slav's and Orthodox Christians in Eastern Europe. Also Russia is not much of an economic power. In 1985 the Soviet economy was about 55% the size of the US economy. In 2013 the Russian economy was still smaller than the Soviet economy was in 1985 and is about 13% the size of the current US economy. In Europe the Russian economy is the same size as the Italian economy, and smaller than the economies of Germany, France and Britain. Russia still has the world's third largest defence budget, but China spends twice as much and America spends seven time as much, yet Russia is still trying to keep up with America and China in numbers.

Russia's economy is also dependent on energy and arms exports. China, India and others buy a lot of arms and technology from Russia, but they do so because they can't afford Western arms or because the West won't sell them arms (China). Many countries are also still dependent on Russian oil and gas, notably the former Soviet Republics, China and Europe, and Putin has used Russian energy resources as a tool to bully them. But oil exports are dependent on the price of a barrel of oil, and that can and has been manipulated in the past.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/c...iet-Union.html
http://www.politifact.com/punditfact...t-saudis-pump/

Today America doesn't need Middle Eastern oil anymore because of its shale resources. Imagine the economic harm that it could do to Russia now

[Raellus]

An interesting article on Poland's role in the current dynamic- quite a change from the old Cold War days.

http://www.businessinsider.com/polan...vasion-2014-10

[Raellus]

A fairly concise and fair-minded analysis of Russia's attempt to enlarge and modernize its military, and the obstacles that it will likely face along the way.

http://nationalinterest.org/commenta...tary-back-9181

[Raellus]

Potential fault lines within the NATO alliance.

http://nationalinterest.org/feature/...military-11661

At least some NATO member nations are taking the Russian threat seriously.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-1...tml?cmpid=yhoo

[rob]

Take the verboseness of Russia with grain of salt. Their land forces are still draft based, loaded with corruption, have many out dated systems from the 1980s. Don't get me wrong here, they do have some good stuff, not just enough of it. What NATOs problem is since the winding down in Afghanistan, NATO members have not been keeping the forces current. Right now, in dealing with Russia, the use the economic method. Russia trades sells oil which is bought and sold in US dollars, as is gold, with oil prices down, their economic situation is not good.

[Silent Hunter UK]

One wonders just how much control Putin actually has over the rebels.

[Schone23666]

According to NATO, if there are indeed well around several thousand Russian troops operating alongside "rebels" inside the Ukraine? The question of control may be fairly academic. Methinks the rebels know they wouldn't be getting very far if not for all the shiny toys and assistance Ivan's been giving them.

[Adm.Lee]

Rebels don't seem to be too worried about getting kicked out.

http://www.theatlantic.com/photo/201...onetsk/387247/

Bet you never had one of these in your T2k game.

[Schone23666]

Originally Posted by Adm.Lee

Rebels don't seem to be too worried about getting kicked out.

http://www.theatlantic.com/photo/201...onetsk/387247/

Bet you never had one of these in your T2k game.

No....but it would be something rather ironic and interesting to run into....

Are the "girls" in question some baron or warlord's personal harem?

Are they there to perhaps entice all the sex-starved males that are probably around in this post-apocalyptic world, only to rob them, kill them, convert them into some crazy brainwashed cult or possibly worse (such as cannibalism)?

Are they not really "military/guerrilla pageant queens", but maybe part of some weird hybrid New Age militaristic "Amazon nation" formed from the ashes hoping to bring about a new order since the machinations of men have apparently failed spectacularly?

Hmmm, now that I think of it, that does give me an idea or two...

[Adm.Lee]

Originally Posted by Schone23666

Are they not really "military/guerrilla pageant queens", but maybe part of some weird hybrid New Age militaristic "Amazon nation" formed from the ashes hoping to bring about a new order since the machinations of men have apparently failed spectacularly?

Hmmm, now that I think of it, that does give me an idea or two...

Well, I think I've read that the Amazons were supposed to live in or near the Scythians, aka Ukraine.

[Medic]

In this case, the said professor, however, is pushing disinformation, not in Finland but Russia. There has been some animosity about "the treatment of Russian-born children in Finland" as the Russian Child Rights official is claiming, with the said professor's support, the Finnish Social Services have taken kids from their parents simply because they were ethnic Russians. And yes, there are the fifth columnists, not to mention the troll factories in Russia that create fake Facebook profiles and feed BS on the public discussion in the Finnish newspapers' comment sections.

In the past two years, we've seen Russian military planes violating the Finnish territorial waters and (probably Russian) sub/subs violating Swedish archipelago. We've got military build-up along the Finnish border with the reopening of Alakurtti base and the placement of an Arctic Brigade there. They are not very far from the Finnish border and, being regular troops, are well equiped and can be put to readiness with little warning. And well, you've probably read about the military exercise the Russians held up north - up to 80000 troops. Kind of hard not to be concerned...

[Askold]

The afore mentioned associate-professor Bäckman is also the ambassador of "People's Republic of Donetsk" to Finland and from the embassy (which Finland has not acknowledged officially) gives orders to the Finnish press on things like that the Ukrainian government should be called only the "Fascist junta of Kiev" and claiming that the People's Republic is the only legal government in Ukraine... Then again, the press is also mainly ignoring him and the pro-Russian groups in Finland consider him an embarrassment, complaining that every time Bäckman opens his mouth, joining NATO gets more support in Finland.

But the Russian "trolls" have been busy for a year or so. Finnish newspaper actually had an article about them and apparently they are mainly based in Moscow and it really is a job. The main trolls are working for a living and need to meet quotas on how many pro-Russian posts they make daily.

Certainly there are other pro-Russian people but the "Troll-army" does most of the job spreading misinformation on the net.