Somewhat(?) on topic - Iran and Oil Prices

[raketenjagdpanzer]

You know, my hat's off to Iran. Clever bastards! In a few short years they have managed to snooker the US into allowing them to have a nuclear weapons program over the protestations of Israel and just about everyone else in the region.

Now that sanctions have been lifted, they're getting the US to underwrite the re-start of their oil production, and by all accounts there was 60bn bl sitting fallow in West Iran, which means they can dump it on the market and completely destabilize every country around them: Russia will be reeling from the hit to their burgeoning petrochemical industry. Speaking of underwriting, the "stable" kingdoms (Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar, etc.) all subsidize their citizens (buy them off) and keep them from grousing too much about personal freedoms; it's hard to bitch too much at the government when there are literally so few poor people to do menial things in your country that you have to import "foreign workers" (slaves; Saudis, Omanis etc. steal their passports and make life hell on those people), and in the case of I believe it was Oman, the government bought every person in the country a luxury car. But if Iran keeps the taps open those oil dollars will dry right up, then major unrest will begin to show. When it comes to low oil prices, Iran gives no fucks because they've been living with privation for 40 years. Any profit is profit for them when they haven't been able to sell.

Now that they're back in the arms market plus producing locally, when the shit hits the fan in neighboring countries who do you think will be fomenting "freedom movements" and "people's revolutions"? And if a call goes out for pan-ME "peace keeping" forces who do you think will be more than happy to send troops hither and yon?

So, really, I doff my hat to Iran. They've won big in the last few months and will continue to rise for a long time.

[Matt W]

Not only that they've fooled the laws of Physics!


They've got a nuclear bomb program without material AND a reactor full of concrete. Now that's smart!

Please try to watch less Fox News.

[Slappy]

Maybe a case where everyone is right, at least a little.

I don't at all believe that Iran will be in a position to run a functioning nuclear program under the current deal. That ain't happening. But they will have access to more funds to create at least the amount of conventional mischief they have been causing, maybe a lot more.

But Iranian crude production has to depress world prices, at least on the margin. And that isn't good for the Saudis at all. That said, it's the Saudi's reckless crusade to drive US frackers out of production and China fears that have oil prices where they are. With all the shit currently going down in the mideast, there is no excuse for fundamental oil prices to be below $60/bbl, which just about balances the Saudi budget.