Berlin in 1996

[RN7]

What happens in Berlin between the 7th October 1996 and the New Year of 1997 when NATO forces reach Berlin?

Berlin was a Cold War anomaly that would have led to a number of political difficulties after the Reunification of Germany for all parties concerned. The city was politically divided into two halves after the Second World War by the victorious Allied powers. The Western half was administered by the American, British and French occupation sectors, and the eastern half was placed under Soviet administration. Even after the reconstitution of Germany in 1949 and the establishment of the rival state of East Germany, both halves of Berlin remained under allied control and were outside of German jurisdiction throughout the Cold War. The Soviet Union refused to allow West Berlin to be the new capital of West Germany, and the Allied powers (America, Britain and France) only recognised Soviet authority over East Berlin even after East Germany established its capital in East Berlin. In 1961 the city was physically divided after the Berlin Wall was built by the East German government. West Berlin was also 100 miles east of the inter-German border within East German territory. West Berlin existed as a functional city state with a shared economic, political and legal system to West Germany, but it was not de jure part of West Germany. Due to its peculiar political arrangement no German military forces (East or West) were allowed within the city boundaries of either half of Berlin.

So despite the fact that West German troops had crossed the inter-German border there would have been no East German military forces in East Berlin. After the Bundeswehr crosses the inter-German border the East German military rapidly changes side and turns against the East German regime. The changing loyalties of the East German military is not an immediate event, but it gathers momentum throughout October 1996 and afterwards. So there would be a dwindling pool of loyal East German troops for the East German government to draw upon, and with West German panzer divisions marching through East Germany they would be needed in frontline areas and not in Berlin. Any East German move against West Berlin would have to be carried out by the various East German security forces, and most likely the Stasi. The Stasi are a para-military police force and are well armed by the standards of internal security troops, but they would still be hopelessly outmatched by the three Berlin garrison brigades with 10,000 troops and armour. There is also the West Berlin police force which was armed and trained to the same standard as West German border guards, and probably had a manpower strength of about 10,000 personnel.

Also even after the Bundeswehr crosses the inter-German border the Soviet's cannot intervene in West Berlin. They are fighting a major war in China and other NATO allies are not actively helping the Germans, in fact some NATO members including France are loudly condemning German Reunification. Although Soviet forces in East Germany could attack and probably quickly take control of West Berlin, it would lead to war with other NATO members including the US. This is the situation until December 1996 when US, British and Canadian forces are sent across the inter-German border.

[James Langham2]

What about the cutting off of supplies into Berlin?

[Raellus]

Yeah, Berlin Blockade Part 2. Also, it's quite possible that, due to the war in China, both Soviet and East German forces still inside East German could have been reorganized/reoriented somewhat, so that could play into the situation in and around Berlin after the Bundeswehr crosses the border.

[raketenjagdpanzer]

Was the Stasi ever given nuclear discretion? Could they have/would they have conducted black ops into West Berlin and set off demolition nukes to slow NATO forces or sow chaos and fear? It definitely seems like something they'd do if they had the armaments to do so. Failing that, continued terror bombings just with conventional explosives to keep the West Berlin contingent completely off balance.

[RN7]

Originally Posted by raketenjagdpanzer

Was the Stasi ever given nuclear discretion? Could they have/would they have conducted black ops into West Berlin and set off demolition nukes to slow NATO forces or sow chaos and fear? It definitely seems like something they'd do if they had the armaments to do so. Failing that, continued terror bombings just with conventional explosives to keep the West Berlin contingent completely off balance.

The answer would have to be no. The Soviets did not trust the East Germans enough to allow them to build an armaments industry other than allowing them to build some rifles and bullets. Giving them nuclear weapons? Nope!

[James Langham2]

Easy to harass aircraft flying through, though, radar locks, etc.

An option for the higher ranking leaders of the East German forces would be to use harassment (blamed on the Soviets) as a provocation for the West Germans to move east.

[RN7]

Originally Posted by Raellus

Yeah, Berlin Blockade Part 2. Also, it's quite possible that, due to the war in China, both Soviet and East German forces still inside East German could have been reorganized/reoriented somewhat, so that could play into the situation in and around Berlin after the Bundeswehr crosses the border.

Road and rail links to West Berlin would certainly have been closed as they pass through East German territory, but maybe not the three air corridors at least until December 1996.

West Berlin was under Allied administration and basically the occupation sectors were American, British and French territories. The Potsdam Agreement established three air corridors that allowed direct flights from West Germany to West Berlin that passed through East German airspace. Only American, British and French military and commercial aircraft were allowed to use these air corridors, although the Polish airline LOT was also allowed use these air corridors on two air routes from Warsaw to London and from East Berlin to Paris. German aircraft including Lufthansa were forbidden from flying to West Berlin or any destination in East Germany, and East German aircraft were also not allowed to travel to West Germany.

Once the Bundeswehr crosses the inter-German border it's likely that flights were severely curtailed due to the warfare in East Germany. However I doubt that America, Britain and France will simply abandon its troops or the civil population of West Berlin, and will insist that regulated air convoys be allowed to continue to fly to West Berlin over the established air corridors at dates and times well known to the Germans and Soviets until perhaps the end of November. The Germans will obviously be happy to allow this, and as the NVA Luftstreitkrafte was quickly absorbed into the Luftwaffe it would leave very few air defence units loyal to the East German regime. What few air defence assets that East Germany retained would be under Soviet command, and the Soviets for their part would have been highly conscious of provoking NATO by shooting down a transport aircraft over East Germany when it could lead to direct NATO military support for Germany and China.