The Twilight War in Asia & the Pacific

[Raellus]

The war between the Soviet union and China is fairly well documented in the v1.0 timeline/history, but there's little else to go on, AFAIK.

What of Japan? Does it take a neutral stance? Does that last? Do the Soviets attack Japan? If so, what does that look like?

What of Taiwan? Is there a rapprochement between the island nation and its mainland cousin?

IIRC, Vietnam is mentioned briefly in v1.0 canon, but I'm having a hard time finding those references.

Are the references that I've seen here to Australia and Indonesia going to war from v1.0 canon?

I'm working on a sourcebook for Korea and I would like to include a bit on the naval war aspect of the campaign. That means that I've got to figure out what the Soviet Pacific Fleet was up to from the outbreak of the war with China to the U.S.A.'s entrance into the war in December 1996 and the North Korean invasion of the ROK later that month.

The Chinese navy of the v1.0 timeline was relatively small and weak. I can't imagine that it could put up much of a fight against the Soviet Pacific Fleet. Where would the Pacific Fleet be when the U.S.A. gets involved in the war? I'm a big Soviet military apologist but I can't imagine that the Soviet Pacific Fleet would last long in open battle with the USN Pacific Fleet.

I know that we have other threads dedicated to specific regions in the Pacific but I would like a clearinghouse for macro-level discussions of strategic and operational actions in Asia & the Pacific.

[dragoon500ly]

Source is "Guide to the Soviet Navy, 4th Edition" by Norman Pillar.

The Red Banner Pacific Fleet (RBPF) is the largest of the four Soviet fleets and has the largest operating area. The RBPF is responsible for all operations throughout the Pacific as well as most of the Indian Ocean. The RBPF has the principal mission of defending the Siberian coast, it has an advantage in that the Soviet Pacific coast has more direct access to the open oceans than the Russian European coasts. The major port complex of Vladivostok opens into the Sea of Japan with four major straits giving access to the Pacific. The Soviets control one(Kuril Strait), another separates Japan and the Soviet-controlled island of Sakhalin (La Perouse), while the two remaining exits are controlled by Japan and Japan/South Korea (Tsugaru and the Korean straits). Blockade by the U.S. is difficult, except in extreme circumstances due to the dependence of Japan and South Korea o. Maritime trade.

The second major naval base is Petropavlosk on the Kamchatka Peninsula. Most of the RBPF sub force is based here, with direct access to the Pacific.

The RBPF has under its command, one third of the Soviet submarine force, including at least 25 of the SSBN force, 29% of its major surface warships and 30% of the total Soviet Naval Aviation force (500 combat aircraft).

[dragoon500ly]

The Red Banner Pacific Fleet bases and shipyards include;

Vladivostok, the major port complex of the Soviet Far East and Headquarters, Pacific Fleet. Includes numerous logistics and training facilities, as well as a major fishing base and fish-processing facility with shipyards and repair facilities. The primary disadvantage is that the port is only 16km from the Chinese border.

Nakhodka lies 96km east of Vladivostok and is the primary commercial port of Siberia. Site of a major container-handling facility, capable of handling 1,000 containers a day.

The limitations of Nakhodka in handling increased volume, led to the construction 14km away of the port of Vostochnyy, developed as a major port. The new Siberian railway, the Baykal-Amir Mainline connects this port with the Lena River. This port can handle over 2 million tons of cargo per year, averaging some 200,000 containers a year. Expansion plans are underway to increase capacity to 40 million tons of cargo per year, making it the largest port in the Soviet Union.

Further up the coast is Sovetskaya Gavan and the port of Nikolayevsk at the mouth of the Amir River. Sovetskaya Cavan is the third largest naval base, while Nikolayevsk is a fishing center.

Further north Anadyr is a coal port and supports Arctic shipping. Light naval forces are based here.

Magadan and Petropavlovsk on Kamchatka have no rail access and all supplies are dependent on sea and air transport.

[Raellus]

Thanks for the intel, dragoon500ly.

Might the Soviets collude with North Korea, so that they could use the Hermit Kingdom's ports for repairs and replenishment for vessels operating against Chinese targets on the Yellow Sea and East China Sea Coasts?

Perhaps that's why the DPRK sided with the USSR instead of China? Perhaps the Soviets offered the DPRK advanced aircraft or armor in exchange for the use of its ports?

This would suggest cooperation between the two. Perhaps the Soviets convinced the DPRK to attack the ROK, in order to tie down American units on the peninsula- this would prevent them from being sent to Europe or Alaska...

According to the v1.0 timeline, U.S. forces engage the Soviets in Germany on December 5th. North Korea invades the ROK on December 19th. That gives the Soviet and U.S. Pacific fleets two weeks to tango. Does anything significant go down during that time?

Vladivostok is on the nuclear target list (for v2.2, at least). When is it hit? After the Soviets begin using nukes in Korea (10/21 is the only firm date for this, although it is implied that it began in early-to-mid September)? Or after the TDM? Was the SPF there at the time, had it already been sent to the bottom, or was it somewhere else?

[dragoon500ly]

Originally Posted by Raellus

Thanks for the intel, dragoon500ly.

Might the Soviets collude with North Korea, so that they could use the Hermit Kingdom's ports for repairs and replenishment for vessels operating against Chinese targets on the Yellow Sea and East China Sea Coasts?

Perhaps that's why the DPRK sided with the USSR instead of China? Perhaps the Soviets offered the DPRK advanced aircraft or armor in exchange for the use of its ports?

This would suggest cooperation between the two. Perhaps the Soviets convinced the DPRK to attack the ROK, in order to tie down American units on the peninsula- this would prevent them from being sent to Europe or Alaska...

Primary problem with North Korea is that their brand of communism is very different from China/Soviets version. The DPRK stress the Kim family as the benevolent dictators protecting the "pure" DPRK from the evil intentions of Russia, China, Japan and the United States. Over the years, they have become very adapt at playing off one against the other, pulling food and basic goods from China, advanced military aid from Russia and fast talking Japan and South Korea into investing into DPRK industry, then chasing out the investors once the factories are up and running.

So the brief answer is yes the Soviets might get access to NK ports, at the expense of providing military aid, would the DPRK allow the Soviets large scale access? Unlikely.

Could the Soviets convince NK to launch its "Final Liberation of the South"? If the DPRK was convinced that they had a good chance of defeating the ROK, in a heartbeat! But could the Soviets convince them to conduct operations in conjunction with the Soviet military? My own thoughts are that the DPRK would promise, plan, take as much military aid as they could get their hands on...and then find a reason(s) to delay the operation, be it the need to better train their troops on the new equipment, weather conditions, the need to improve rail and road conditions, etc, etc, etc.

While I was a Pentagon Commando, I never had the access or clearance to read the intelligence reports, but "talking shop" with co-workers, the opinion they shared was that the DPRK would look out for number one first! They might provide intelligence, allow overnights, even allow the temporary basin of reconnaissance aircraft, submarines and even surface ships, but would they jump in and invade ROK?

[dragoon500ly]

According to the v1.0 timeline, U.S. forces engage the Soviets in Germany on December 5th. North Korea invades the ROK on December 19th. That gives the Soviet and U.S. Pacific fleets two weeks to tango. Does anything significant go down during that time?

Vladivostok is on the nuclear target list (for v2.2, at least). When is it hit? After the Soviets begin using nukes in Korea (10/21 is the only firm date for this, although it is implied that it began in early-to-mid September)? Or after the TDM? Was the SPF there at the time, had it already been sent to the bottom, or was it somewhere else?

I don't have access to my copies of v.1 or v.2 at this time, but...

The Soviet submarine bases on the Pacific are all hardened against nuclear attack, so the submarine threat will almost certainly be unharmed by a US strike. The lighter naval units (destroyer sized and below) have access to a variety of civilian ports, anchorages and even the Amur River to disperse to. So the question is, what about the major fleet units, the Kirov-class and the two Kiev-class and their supporting cruisers?

The major US targets in the area would be the carrier task force based in Japan and the naval/marine bases on Okinawa.

I would expect a surge of units going to sea to conduct attacks on Chinese ports and naval units, with the Kirov-class trying to get into missile range of the US carrier for a snap shot, trying for major damage, if not sinking the CV.

Soviet Naval Aviation might support this attack OR launch a standoffmissile attack to disrupt operations on Okinawa.

You could also expect cruise missile attacks at the USAF base on Guam. If these attacks go off well, this could buy time for more extensive RBPF operations,like sub warfare on the tanker routes in the region or cutting the shipping lanes through the North Pacific.

As for Vladivostok, with the outbreak of a Soviet-US war, you can see at the very least B-1 conventional attacks on key locations, perhaps several B-52 sorties with CAPTOR mines on the main channels, even a strike or two with sub-launched cruise missiles, especially if one or more of the major naval units returns for replenishment.

When the war goes nuclear, I would expect a major lowering of the RBPF surface ship sorties. True, they Soviets have two or h Dr major bases, but Vladivostok is the major logistical site. And with the dearth of decent rail and road communications, the RBPF will be living off pre-War stockpiles.

[Raellus]

Originally Posted by dragoon500ly

I would expect a surge of units going to sea to conduct attacks on Chinese ports and naval units...

I would expect this to happen shortly after the USSR and PRC go to war. I think your outline of the Pacific naval war between the SPF and USN is solid. I'm trying to figure out what happens between the two periods.

Originally Posted by dragoon500ly

Primary problem with North Korea is that their brand of communism is very different from China/Soviets version. The DPRK stress the Kim family as the benevolent dictators protecting the "pure" DPRK from the evil intentions of Russia, China, Japan and the United States. Over the years, they have become very adapt at playing off one against the other, pulling food and basic goods from China, advanced military aid from Russia and fast talking Japan and South Korea into investing into DPRK industry, then chasing out the investors once the factories are up and running.

So the brief answer is yes the Soviets might get access to NK ports, at the expense of providing military aid, would the DPRK allow the Soviets large scale access? Unlikely.

Agreed. I'm just thinking that the Soviets want a place between Cam Rahn Bay and Vladivostok for ships to put in for maintenance, minor repairs, and maybe refueling. If they offer to pay with a few more MiG-29s, T-72s, and/or advanced SAMs, it'd be a hard for the Kims to turn down.

And I reckon the DPRK would back whoever is winning in China; by late 1996, that would be the Soviets.

Originally Posted by dragoon500ly

Could the Soviets convince NK to launch its "Final Liberation of the South"? If the DPRK was convinced that they had a good chance of defeating the ROK, in a heartbeat! But could the Soviets convince them to conduct operations in conjunction with the Soviet military?

I'm not suggesting active cooperation, just gentle persuasion- something along the lines of, "The U.S. is very busy with this expanding war in Europe. Now's the time to make your move. They're totally distracted. They won't be able to reinforce 8th Army (just 2ID at the outset). Their navy will have to deal with ours. We might even be able to send you a few more tanks, fighters, SAMs, etc."

That sort of thing. It's all about opportunism. If the DPRK believes the risks are minimal and the rewards potentially great, the thinking might be "it's now or never". This all aligns well with v1.0 canon too.