Twilight state of the mind?

[Mohoender]

Reading Marc comment about Vermont, I have thought about asking you that question. What, in your opinion would be the people reaction in several countries? Your own or else?

We all know what it is today, we know what the strong and weak points are or at least we have an opinion about it. However, what would change in case of the Twilight War. What alliance could change? what state could go against it's former ally? What could be the civilians position after the initial panic and despair?

What would be the effect on US? Ok, we all know what it would be concerning Civgov and Milgov but what about individual states? So far, the Americans have been talking as a nation here, but I know that people from specific states don't always like people from others states. Therefore, what if the federal states is gone. I try to make myself clear. Most French would think of Americans as one people. I don't really, I think of US as one nation with at least 50 people. 50 people with common values but what if that common cement is gone?

Else:
What about Italy, assuming that the north doesn't really like the south?
What about Portugal, Spain...
What about Japan and Okinawa?
What about Germany?

....

[kato13]

As much as we in the US joke about state rivalries, I don't see state borders meaning as much as the urban/rural one. I think that someone from rural Illinois is going to feel more kinship to someone from rural Iowa or Wisconsin that they would towards an urban dweller who happens to be from the same state.

[headquarters]

I see Scandinavian countrie sgoing the way of isolation as far as possible .

Sure , if the Russians act up we would need a strong international stance as they are our neighbours - but say a chaos erupted due to several more limited conflicts and the ensuing economical collapse - Scandinavia -especialy Norway/Sweden would have electricity ,perhaps petrol,maybe enough food to last us as well as being far from the center of trouble ,central Europe,US ,UK ,central Russia etc .

I could see us -small and non capable military as we are - to try and lock down and try to ride it out with a situation bordering on martial law or fully under martial law.

We are unused to war and not quick to take up arms -unless invasion of Norway proper looms. If control ceases in our major partners ,US and parts of the EU -we would hole up is my guess.

I follow kato on the rural/metro divide line and think that those with farms,fisheries,woods etc would be loathe to let us computer dabbling,tertiary services types get their food .A sort of re distribution or massive robbery if you are a farmer would go down using the law as a cover to appropriate whatever food available to keep the masses at bay in the cities.Nationalization of farm land as a temporary measure would take effect ,reloaction of populace because of workforce issues an supply issues would occur too.

I see lots of potential for what historians later would call a low intensity civil war due to the troubles these harsh measures would cause , but I cant see a deeper split leading to a formation of competing political entities in Scandinavia .Al lin my humble opinion of course -and a word of warning to the Swedes -try to come back here and we got no candy for ya!



But as I said -we have 5 million people and app. 1,5 million firearms .Any heavy handed use of authority would escalate into violence at some point .Not a full blown civil war ,but certainly resistance,self defense against criminal activity wether it be perpetrated by goverment agencies or civilians and power struggle locally and possibly nationally .Though no full blown civil war as I said .

[Mohoender]

Originally Posted by kato13

As much as we in the US joke about state rivalries, I don't see state borders meaning as much as the urban/rural one. I think that someone from rural Illinois is going to feel more kinship to someone from rural Iowa or Wisconsin that they would towards an urban dweller who happens to be from the same state.

That's exactly what I'm looking for.

For France, you can find the same kind of reactions. I'm currently living in a "Canton" (similar to a county) where you'll find allied villages and ennemy villages. While working in another area, people from one valley wouldn't care about what was going on in the next one. Anyway, In France, the term Allien would apply to anyone not living in your village/town.

In the case of T2K you would find a few more specific situations: Corsica, Britany, and the Basque region. Corsica and the south-east of France could exactly become what it is described per cannon. Britany, would become semi-independent. At last, the Basque could join with the Basque of Spain. Nice could become independent again.

Finally, you'll probably find a number of interregional tensions such as between Alsace and Lorraine (they almost hate each other).

However, you can forget about the mountainous regions entering open rebellion as there are no point for this to happen.

For France, I could imagine (especially if it's lightly hit) that a central government remain but with the local authorities getting more power that what they do today.

[Slappy]

I think there are still reasonable regional rivalries in the US, but not many that could be acted on in the conditions of the twilight war. Local issues, not state issues will dominate in most areas. This will lead to the rural/urban splits mentioned and will also make statewide organization against a neighboring state nearly impossible for some time.

I do have some ideas though. I think the Texans, with their history of having been an independent country, are the most likely to declare indepenance again if they have the chance and see a benefit. I also think the bonds of the old Confederacy are stronger than most if only as a propaganda technique to keep the people in line.

I also think that California and the other Pacific states will go largely insular, if only for reasons of geography. California is separated from the rest of the country by fairly serious deserts and mountains in most areas. They are crossable using pre-industrial means (Lewis and Clark did it and the Native Americans for centuries) but it would be difficult to maintain reliable communication/trade and effective control across the rockies and the desert southwest. Even within California LA and San Francisco are separated by 500 miles of coast with nearly no full time inhabitants. Similarly the 500 miles from SF to Portland Oregon is largely empty. I would expect that the areas around these cities would form independent survival strategies. Northern and Southern Californians (NoCal and SoCal) already despise each other. This would be complicated in the south by the fact that LA will be largely uninhabitable desert without modern irrigation technology.

[jester]

Slappy, I will go a bit further reguarding California. And this is something that I spoke with durring the elections.

We have some sizable populations in our urban areas. Alot of these people are the welfare class and illegals and other urban poor. I made the comment with a freind in Washington state election evening.

We the NORMAL PEOPLE, are forced to go along with the masses and their will dragged along by the will of the urban megatropolises. And this will drag the folks in the country and suburbs along that route too against their will and beleifs.

Now, with that being said, California is a widly spaced state. We do have a bit of distance to our East, however, we have several major highways that go north to South, a couple go from Mexico to Canada. The 101 and the 5, and the 22 goes a fair piece.

As for East to West we have the I-15 which goes straight to Vegas <another place that will crumble with the falling of the infrastructure. I beleive Vegas in the middle of the desert with its massive population that is based on entertainment would turn into something WORSE than Armies of the Night or City of the Angels, although, they may have lighting if the Hoover Damn remains intact> And then we have the I-10 which does to almost Mexico and then cuts East into Arizona.

As for Southern California, I agree we will have an urban vs Country folks war, but I will say it will be more. Not just the rural folks, it will be more Inner City verses the Suburbs.

I also think it would be a big race issue in Cali. One just needs to look at the rallies they had a couple years ago, or look on the roads and you will see countless vehicles with mexican flag stickers. I can see it turning into something akin to Yugoslavia in California. Drought, social unrest and ethnic tensions and fighting for the limited resources available for the survivors. And a total disreguard for what is left of government as they have failed miserably.

I can see catonments based on race and social class. And some raids and clashes between groups. Inner city types with gang members forming a nucleus of their fighters would always venture out to raid the catonments in the rural and suburbs, and those from the suburbs and rural areas will basicaly shoot anyone of city dwellers on sight and even conduct punative raids on the urban dwellers and camps of bandits and groups of mexicans.

Thats what I would guess would happen.

[kato13]

I kind of thought there might be 4 divisions but I wanted to keep things simple with the two division I mentioned above. Here is how i see it breaking down.

Urban Lower Class
Urban Middle/Upper Class
Suburban
Rural

My expectation is that after a bad event each would look towards the areas inhabited by the ones listed below them for materials, support and refuge. How violent the confrontations between the groups are depends on the severity of the incident. In the T2k world I could easily see it breaking down similar to (or worse than) Yugoslavia.

[Targan]

Originally Posted by Slappy

I also think that California and the other Pacific states will go largely insular, if only for reasons of geography. California is separated from the rest of the country by fairly serious deserts and mountains in most areas. They are crossable using pre-industrial means (Lewis and Clark did it and the Native Americans for centuries) but it would be difficult to maintain reliable communication/trade and effective control across the rockies and the desert southwest.

I can totally relate to this. One look at a map will show you how isolated my city is from Australia's other big cities. Thousands of miles of desert to the east. After the Twlight war the rail line would be the best way to reach the rest of Australia and if that wasn't an option it would have to be by ship. Or maybe camel train like the good ole days (yes Australia used to use camel caravans extensively).

[Mohoender]

Thanks guys

Keep that coming you are giving here some insights i had no way to find by myself. That helps a lot.