The USA-PRC Alliance in T2k

[Raellus]

Early days...

This article highlights the IRL improving, cooperative relationship between the US and China during the 1980s, culminating in a collaborative defense development program called 'Peace Pearl'. This IRC scenario dovetails nicely with the v1 timeline.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...rn-jet-fighter

Peace Pearl fell apart and the relationship deteriorated after the Tiananmen Square Massacre in 1989. The PRC then pivoted back to the USSR/Russia for support of its defense industry. Obviously, this all occurred sometime after GDW published v1.

I think the Tiananmen Square Protests happened in the updated v1 timeline, but I can see it playing out two ways that would maintain a relatively good working relationship with the USA.

Option one is that the Chinese government implemented pro-democracy reforms, mollifying the protestors. This outcome likely would have strengthened the relationship with the USA even more. It would also explain why the USSR started to perceive the PRC as a greater threat.

Option two is that the massacre and subsequent crackdown occurred like IRL, and that US-PRC did indeed sour again. But then, when the Soviets attack China c.95, the US acts opportunistically to assist the enemy (PRC) of its greater enemy (USSR).

The former option would give GMs an opportunity to build a T2kU where a close US-PRC economic/defense industry relationship has existed for several years before war breaks out between the USSR and China. The latter option lends itself more to an ad-hoc, unofficial alliance developing quickly only after the Soviets invade.

I'm not sure how the Tiananmen Massacre fits into the v2-2.2 timeline. That T2kU is not really my cup of tea. But I'm interested in your thoughts on that as well.

In your T2kU, did the Tiananmen Square Massacre occur? If so, how did it effect the US-PRC relationship?

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[Southernap]

In V2.0 they start the timeline in 1989 and make a reference to Tienanmen Square without actually saying it specifically:

Elsewhere, the Chinese political reform
movement is brutally crushed by government
military forces. An attempted coup against
President Aquino of the Philippines is foiled
(with the help of American air cover), and the
republic of Panama is invaded by the U.S. to
remove the government of Manuel Noriega.

So it does exist in the V2.0 and V2.2 timeline.

[mpipes]

Even in my heavily modified timeline, Tienanmen Square happens. But when the USSR invades, all sins are forgiven as most western countries align with China. Western support is crucial to China surviving into 1997 and beyond, though most of China turns into a mass grave with most major cities getting a nuclear warhead or two. I have Shanghai and Hong Kong surviving the worst of it.

[Rainbow Six]

I’d expect that Tianamen probably happened but following the start of the Sino - Soviet War in 1995 Realpolitik would kick in (if it hadn’t already done so) so I don’t really see it having a big impact (if any impact at all) on US - Chinese relations as they’re established in the V1 timeline. Quite apart from anything else I’m sure that all the US defence contractors would be eager to make sure they got their slice of the pie.

[Tegyrius]

Originally Posted by Rainbow Six

I’d expect that Tianamen probably happened but following the start of the Sino - Soviet War in 1995 Realpolitik would kick in (if it hadn’t already done so) so I don’t really see it having a big impact (if any impact at all) on US - Chinese relations as they’re established in the V1 timeline. Quite apart from anything else I’m sure that all the US defence contractors would be eager to make sure they got their slice of the pie.

With wartime censorship, there's a real chance that footage never got out to have an impact on American public support.

- C.

[Raellus]

Originally Posted by Tegyrius

With wartime censorship, there's a real chance that footage never got out to have an impact on American public support.

I may have missed your point, but the TMSM occurred in mid-'89, and the Sino-Soviet War (v1) started in '95 or so, so the cat would have already been out of the bag as far as censorship would have gone. IRL, the US wasn't censoring images of the massacre in '89.

That said, I agree that realpolitik would have most Americans conveniently forgetting about that unpleasant incident when the opportunity to stick it to the Soviets with a proxy war in East Asia arises.

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