v1 Background: Where/How Should the War Start in Europe?

[Raellus]

We have a thread dedicated to why v1's scenario for the start of the Twilight War in Germany probably isn't realistic enough for many Refs and/or players with knowledge of the subject to suspend disbelief*. If the European war doesn't start in Germany, where should it start instead? (Note: I didn't include Albania because it formally withdrew from the Warsaw Pact in 1968; I also did not include Yugoslavia- even though it was a communist country, considered part of the East Bloc by some, it was technically non-aligned, and not a Warsaw Pact nation. Furthermore, war did break out there in the 1990s and it did not start a Europe-wide conflict.)

Poland
Pros:
The Solidarity Movement
Widespread anti-Soviet sentiment
Soviet troops stationed there (Northern Group of Forces)

Cons:
Shares a border with the USSR
Kaliningrad Oblast
Soviet troops stationed there (Central Group of Forces)
Does not share a border with any NATO country

Czechsoslovakia
Pros:
It's really two nations forced to be one
Widespread anti-Soviet sentiment
Soviet troops stationed there (Central Group of Forces)

Cons:
Shares a border with the USSR
Memories of Pact Troops invading to crush the Prague Spring in 1968
Soviet troops stationed there (Central Group of Force

Hungary
Pros:
Widespread anti-Soviet sentiment
Soviet troops stationed there (Southern Group of Forces)

Cons:
Shares a [short] border with the USSR
Doesn't border any NATO country
Soviet troops stationed there (Southern Group of Forces)

Bulgaria
Pros:
Shares border with NATO countries*
Soviet troops stationed there (Southern Group of Forces)

Cons:
Arguably most loyal of Warsaw Pact nations
Soviet troops stationed there (Southern Group of Forces)
*Greece & Turkey were two of the weakest NATO nations (at least in the 1980s & '90s)

Romania
Pros:
Most recalcitrant Warsaw Pact member
No Soviet troops stationed there

Cons:
Doesn't border any NATO nation
Considered strategically insignificant by both Warsaw Pact & NATO
No Soviet troops stationed there

...

I see Soviet troops stationed in a country as both a pro and a con. It's a pro in that it creates tension and the possibility of a clash with NATO troops. It's a con because any nation would think twice about rebelling against Soviet suzerainty knowing that well-armed Red Army troops are already well-established on its home soil in significant numbers.

So, where should WW3 in Europe start? Under what circumstances? What's the trigger? Who starts it and why/how?

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[Ewan]

I always imagined the Soviet Union invading Poland during the early 80s with the rise of Solidarity

[Raellus]

Originally Posted by Ewan

I always imagined the Soviet Union invading Poland during the early 80s with the rise of Solidarity

How do you seeing that lead to a war with NATO?

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[Ewan]

Originally Posted by Raellus

How do you seeing that lead to a war with NATO?

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Soviet intervention in Poland would lead to Polish American elements putting pressure on Ronald Reagan to give covert intelligence/military support to various factions within the Polish military/government.
Soviets find out and put pressure on NATO, NATO reacts and after naval clashes in the Baltic the Warsaw Pact invade West Germany.

[Ursus Maior]

It would be interesting for this question to know when war breaks out and if there are goals to be achieved for the aggressor or if it's a "come as you are war" that happens more by accident.

Nota bene: I can hardly see a NATO-Soviet war break out over anything south of the Czech Republic or the ČSSR. The countries south are historically underdeveloped, thus economically unimportant, have few population centers and are not well tied into the international economies or infrastructures. To make it short: It's hardly worth dying for Romania, Bulgaria or Hungary, unless you live there.

[Raellus]

Originally Posted by Ursus Maior

It would be interesting for this question to know when war breaks out and if there are goals to be achieved for the aggressor or if it's a "come as you are war" that happens more by accident.

The question is directed more towards 1e than other editions, but three out of Twilight 2000's four versions have fighting starting in Europe c.1996, so that's the temporal focus here.

As to the second point, that's also an open question, and up to the responder.

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