Mexican Army Sourcebook

[Turboswede]

I just sent Paul my Polish Army Sourcebook and revised V2 timeline and I am currently working on a Mexican Army Sourcebook as a follow up. It’s hard to reconcile the T2K images of Mexican tanks across the Rio Grande given the equipment levels of the Mexican Army as of 1996 per Jane’s Armor & Artillery. I mean really, how would Mexico invade America with M3 and M5 tanks that were marginal performers in 1945? I know that the invasion was supposedly to have occurred after the 1997 nuclear exchange, but I think the City of Dallas police department has more armor than the Mexican army (they both use the LAV-150). Seriously, the exhibits at the Yuma proving ground’s museum would have a good chance of repelling a Mexican invasion.

I like the concept of a Mexican invasion though and would like to include it in any T2K US scenario so the Mexican Army needs a good overhaul. I figure some good old Peronist nationalism / militarism needs to be infused into the Mexicans sometime in the late 80s. I am going with the premise that the Mexican military/political establishment could have cozy up to the Germans prior to unification and entered into an agreement for domestic production of armored vehicles. If production were moderate then I don’t think the US would have raised any objections, especially if the decision to “modernize” the armed forces came at the tail end of the 80’s when the cold war was still going strong. I picked the Germans because I know a bit about the TAM project and the support Germany provided to Argentina following the Malvinas war.

I guess France could work too, but the Leopard I is sooooooooooo much better than the AMX-30, why would anyone have bought a tank with such a soft skin…but I digress. Another option would be the US (or maybe Spain) setting up an M48 production line for the Mexicans. I avoided this route because I would think a Nationalist Mexico would want to discourage reliance on U.S. designs.

Anyway, I would like any ideas about how Mexico’s arms procurement policies could have led to a force capable of sending “armored columns across the Rio Grande” (per the original rule sets)

[weswood]

I don't know about the Mexican Arms Procurement policy, but what about Mexican Special Forces types in conjunction with La Familia/MS 13 sneaking across the border with the mass of immigrants. Said forces then sabotaging the US forces supply chain so that US forces were unable to respond in time to repel the Mexican Armed Forces.

[Turboswede]

Originally Posted by weswood

Said forces then sabotaging the US forces supply chain so that US forces were unable to respond in time to repel the Mexican Armed Forces.

Point taken, but there still needs to be some kind of Mexican Armed Forces. As it stands a single M60A3 with an ERA package (for the odd Milan) could pretty much take out the whole Mexican army circa real world 1996. Without some kind of force I think one could justify a terror campaign or even a guerrilla war (although in the desert that’s a tough one), but not an invasion capturing California, Arizona, New Mexico and most of Texas.

[kato13]

The Mexican Invasion is one of the three hardest points for me to reconcile (The Alaskan invasion and failure of US Continuance of government plan being the others). I still want to know who nuked Mexico. If the Sovs did why do the Mexicans allow division Cuba onto their soil. If the US did why hit the refineries and not military targets.

The only thing I can imagine the Mexicans having an advantage in is fuel and therefore mobility. Even with a fuel advantage I cannot see Mexican air power being decisive. One they are attacking the US's primary ADA school , and two the aircraft they have are generations behind what the US could send to counter them, even taking into account limited fuel.

[Turboswede]

Originally Posted by kato13

I still want to know who nuked Mexico. If the Sovs did why do the Mexicans allow division Cuba onto their soil. If the US did why hit the refineries and not military targets.

I never thought of that, maybe it was the French

[Turboswede]

Originally Posted by kato13

Even with a fuel advantage I cannot see Mexican air power being decisive.

Um, thats just funny.

Combat aircraft constituting the Mexican Air Amada, Circa 1996
10 F-5E Tiger II
2 F-5F Advanced trainers
12 AT-33s Jet trainers
12 Bell 205, 206, and 212 armed helicopters

I agree, I seriously doubt that Mexican airpower would have been decisive.

[pmulcahy11b]

Originally Posted by Turboswede

Um, thats just funny.

Combat aircraft constituting the Mexican Air Amada, Circa 1996
10 F-5E Tiger II
2 F-5F Advanced trainers
12 AT-33s Jet trainers
12 Bell 205, 206, and 212 armed helicopters

I agree, I seriously doubt that Mexican airpower would have been decisive.

Back in the late-1980s when Northrop was still trying to market the F-20 Tigershark, the Mexicans were very interested, but the sale was blocked by both the Reagan and George HW Bush administrations. Perhaps under other circumstances it might have gone through -- such as if US aircraft manufacturers might need the export sales to finance even more advanced aircraft for the US?

[Fusilier]

Originally Posted by kato13

I still want to know who nuked Mexico. If the Sovs did why do the Mexicans allow division Cuba onto their soil. If the US did why hit the refineries and not military targets.

How about Sovs hit to deny to USA the fuel... blame the USA. How is Mexico going to know the truth? The book also states they elect a marxist government so they may be more willing to believe Moscow as opposed to the Imperialists.

Originally Posted by kato13

The only thing I can imagine the Mexicans having an advantage in is fuel and therefore mobility. Even with a fuel advantage I cannot see Mexican air power being decisive. One they are attacking the US's primary ADA school , and two the aircraft they have are generations behind what the US could send to counter them, even taking into account limited fuel.

Slow build up from allies... particularly Cuba? Not the Cuba of today, but the Cuba of the 80s. That's where the tanks, artillery and aircraft come from. Add in some Nicaraguans and maybe even Venezuela (if you want to advance what's his name's ascension to power.

[kato13]

Originally Posted by Fusilier

How about Sovs hit to deny to USA the fuel... blame the USA. How is Mexico going to know the truth? The book also states they elect a marxist government so they may be more willing to believe Moscow as opposed to the Imperialists.

I fully agree that 95% of the population including parts of the Civilian leadership could be convinced of this, but I would expect the higher-ups in the military would have serious doubts.

[Targan]

Originally Posted by kato13

I still want to know who nuked Mexico. If the Sovs did why do the Mexicans allow division Cuba onto their soil. If the US did why hit the refineries and not military targets.

Last week someone pointed out that SLBMs launched at France would allow an attacker to plausibly deny having nuked Franch targets.So whether or not it was the Soviets that nuked Mexico, if they denied it how would the Mexicans know any better?

[Legbreaker]

Originally Posted by kato13

I still want to know who nuked Mexico. If the Sovs did why do the Mexicans allow division Cuba onto their soil. If the US did why hit the refineries and not military targets.

Perhaps it was the French?
Although Mexico isn't now, nor is likely to ever be a military power, leaving their industry untouched after the war might lead to them being an economic competitor to France (France itself having been nuked, if not back to the stone age, at least half a century or so).
Destroying Mexico's future and it's ability to assist any other potential rivals to French power, might be something considered by elements in the French government.
With the nuclear exchanges of late 1997 as a cover, France cements their future role as a superpower....

And with France possibly selling old military equipment off to Mexico beforehand, it muddies the waters even more. The sale of such equipment is also in France's long term best interests as it potentially sets two of their rivals at each others throats reducing future pressure on France.

A little paranoid perhaps, but fits better than either Nato or the WP nuking them.

[kato13]

Originally Posted by Legbreaker

Perhaps it was the French?

So the Mexican's in Texas are just on their way to Quebec for revenge?