Question About Wind as it relates to fallout.

[kato13]

I am currently adding fallout to my nuclear effects map. The source for a portion of my code recently unexpectedly added fallout to the effects display

http://www.carloslabs.com/node/20

Unfortunately this has surprised me from a data perspective. I had not thought about wind direction when I did the data model. The carloslabs page solves this question by making the wind direction random but adjustable. Adjustable is not feasable on my system due to the number of strikes.

At first I thought random would be ridiculous as in the US winds primarily move from West to East i always expected fallout to follow that pattern. Thinking about it I wondered if the thermal effects of such a bomb screw things up so much that random wind might be possible.

I still think I will go with a fixed wind direction for each strike using the following basis:

USA. West to East with variation from northerly to southerly, southerly slightly emphasized.

Canada. West to East with variation from northerly to southerly, southerly strongly emphasized.

USSR. Generally radiating out from the center or the country, but significant variation.

UK. Generally North to South with easterly to westerly variation, easterly slightly emphasized.


Anyone have any opinions on this. This kinda came at me from left field and is the only thing holding me back from finishing up the strikes portion of my system.

[Legbreaker]

As the US prevailing winds are west to east, perhaps somehow working a bit of randomness into it might not be a bad idea. Would need to skew the possible results towards the prevailing winds of course, but like you say, thermal effects, and normal storm fronts etc will certainly have an impact.
These variations are likely to be relatively short lived I'd think though - perhaps hours, maybe a few days to a week in duration.

Wind speed is another variable you might want to consider, perhaps humidity (especially heavy rain or snow) could contribute also.

I wonder how much a Cyclone/Hurricane or tornados would screw things up?

[Grimace]

I used to room with a guy in the Air Force that worked in some of those missile silos. He had a book that I got to look at (it had been declassified) that showed maps of what the Air Force thought would happen as far as radioactive fallout after a nuclear war. Needless to say, it wasn't a pretty thing for the East Coast of the U.S.

So I think you've generally got the right idea. The thing to do is get a picture showing the jet stream. Then you can base your wind drift patterns based on that. Also...and I'm not sure if you're taking this into account, but ground bursts created substantially more fallout and much bigger affected area downwind from the impact zone than that of an airburst.

[Legbreaker]

Once particles reach the jet stream, my understanding is that they're likely to stay up there a VERY long time. It's this dust that's supposed to cause the nuclear winter and we all know how long some estimates say that'll last.....

The biggest, or at least more immediate threat from fallout will probably be in the first few weeks. After that time, most of the airborne particles are likely to be coating the ground and just about every other surface only causing significant immediate problems if it's stirred up (which normal winds are certain to do, not to mention people walking through it).

Fallout (ie particles falling from the sky) is likely to remain a danger for as long as there's dust in the upper atmosphere. Without rain to flush it clear (it's WELL above cloud level), this could be generations. Fortunately the amount of dust isn't going to be anything like directly after the initial bursts.

[kato13]

Originally Posted by Grimace

I used to room with a guy in the Air Force that worked in some of those missile silos. He had a book that I got to look at (it had been declassified) that showed maps of what the Air Force thought would happen as far as radioactive fallout after a nuclear war. Needless to say, it wasn't a pretty thing for the East Coast of the U.S.

So I think you've generally got the right idea. The thing to do is get a picture showing the jet stream. Then you can base your wind drift patterns based on that. Also...and I'm not sure if you're taking this into account, but ground bursts created substantially more fallout and much bigger affected area downwind from the impact zone than that of an airburst.

I think this focuses on near term fallout as long term fallout is too hard to model (and to be honest way too depressing).

[kato13]

Originally Posted by Legbreaker

As the US prevailing winds are west to east, perhaps somehow working a bit of randomness into it might not be a bad idea. Would need to skew the possible results towards the prevailing winds of course, but like you say, thermal effects, and normal storm fronts etc will certainly have an impact.
These variations are likely to be relatively short lived I'd think though - perhaps hours, maybe a few days to a week in duration.

Wind speed is another variable you might want to consider, perhaps humidity (especially heavy rain or snow) could contribute also.

I wonder how much a Cyclone/Hurricane or tornados would screw things up?

There is certainly going to be a random factor. If the few hours I have had to think about this I have been daunted by the math. Even the best minds can't figure out the weather so I don't feel too bad.

Since I want my maps to appear the same every time you come back to them, I have to set the wind direction in the database. Which means deciding on wind direction for 3000 or so data points. I want it automated, but I also want points close together to have a similar, but not identical wind direction. Fallout from 10 strikes from a closely clustered MIRV are unlikely to produce fallout in all directions. Of course other close strikes might happen on different days. As someone who over thinks everything this is a nasty curve to be thrown so close to completion.

I think once I finalize all the other strike issues I will put this on hold while I do units and resources. I appreciate the comments they help keep my mind open.

Oh here is my first test using T2k Canon strikes.

[Legbreaker]

Just to make the task even more "interesting" some of the resources state which direction fallout from particular strikes fell. The information is usually hidden away in descriptions of small towns, etc.
Looks like you've got a bit of reading ahead of you....

[kato13]

Originally Posted by Legbreaker

Just to make the task even more "interesting" some of the resources state which direction fallout from particular strikes fell. The information is usually hidden away in descriptions of small towns, etc.
Looks like you've got a bit of reading ahead of you....

I am going to do some digging before I launch. I want as many European strikes as I can find, Unit strengths, Strike miss distance and direction, etc. I guess I will add "wind/fallout" related words to my search term list.

I think I will investigate converting all the pdfs I have to txt to make searching multiple files at the same time easier. I am a lazy programmer there is no way I am reading everything

One good thing though is that everything within my system is databased so over the long run errors and inaccuracies can be changed by a few keystrokes.

[Fusilier]

There's also the possibility if you want to consider that many of the strikes may be high air bursts (usually depending on the nature of the target) so there would be little fallout to worry about.

Also the strikes occurred in November and beyond. You often get a lot of N / S wind patterns (at least in the areas I'm familiar with) due to cold fronts pushing down from northern Canada.