Falkland Islands in T2K

[avantman42]

In this thread, General Pain mentioned that there are probably other locations that aren't discussed in canon, and wondered what happened to them.

I'd already considered this for the Falkland Islands, and written an article about them on the T2K wiki. I think the islanders were in a relatively good position, since the islands were already fairly self-sufficient.

Any opinions?

[TiggerCCW UK]

I think the nautical aviation guide mentions that Argentina did some sabre rattling re the Islands and some assets ( couple of Lynx's and a TA unit) were sent down. I'll have a look later if I get a chance.

[Raellus]

With the UK fully embroiled in the Twilight War in Europe, it wouldn't have the forces to defend the islands from a dertimined Argentine invasion.

On the other hand, why would Argentina want the islands in the first place? The main reason they tried to take them in '82 was to rally public support for the unpopular military government. When the UK took the islands back, the Argentine government quickly collapsed.

I don't think that that ploy would work again and I don't see any compelling reasons for the Argies to invest any blood and treasure in taking the islands back a second time.

[avantman42]

Originally Posted by Raellus

With the UK fully embroiled in the Twilight War in Europe, it wouldn't have the forces to defend the islands from a dertimined Argentine invasion.

Agreed, and I think that's similar to the situation in 1982. In 1982, Argentina didn't expect Britain to fight for the islands. There was some evidence to back up such a belief. Nicholas Ridley, the Minister of State, visited the islands in 1980 to try and convince the islanders to accept a leaseback proposal (where sovereignty would be transferred to Argentina, but Britain would lease back the islands for something like 100 years). In 1981, the British Nationality Act removed British nationality from many Falkland Islanders, and it was announced that HMS Endurance was to be scrapped, with no replacement planned.

Originally Posted by Raellus

On the other hand, why would Argentina want the islands in the first place? The main reason they tried to take them in '82 was to rally public support for the unpopular military government. When the UK took the islands back, the Argentine government quickly collapsed.

I don't think that that ploy would work again and I don't see any compelling reasons for the Argies to invest any blood and treasure in taking the islands back a second time.

I agree that the 1982 invasion was partly an attempt to get public support, but I don't think that wholly explains it. Argentina has long claimed the islands, and periodically does something about it. Some 20th-century examples:

1903: Argentina acquires administration of a meterological station in the South Orkney Islands, and claims it as evidence of a transfer of sovereignty throughout all the Falkland Islands Dependencies
1927: Argentina asks the International Postal Union to accept Argentine jurisdition over all the Falkland Islands Dependencies
1947: Argentina issues stamps for use in 'Malvinas and Dependencies'
1960: UN Resolution 1514 calls for an end to colonialism; Britain lists the Islands as a colony and Argentina objects
1964: An Argentine pilot lands a Cessna 172 on Stanley racecourse, plants Argentine flag and hands over letter declaring Argentine sovereignty
1966: Aerolineas Argentinas DC4 lands on Stanley racecourse after being hijacked by 20 terrorists calling themselves 'Condors' who take 4 Islanders prisoner but surrender after 1 night
1966: Argentine marines dropped off at night by submarine Santiago del Estero to reconnoitre potential landing beaches near Stanley
1968: Small private plane with 3 Argentines on board, sponsored by Argentine press, crash-lands in Stanley
1973: Newly-elected Argentine Peronist government renews sovereignty claim in the UN
1975: Air travellers from Falklands now required to obtain clearance from Argentine Foreign Ministry (all air travel to/from the islands is via Argentina)
1976: British Antarctic Survey ship RRS Shackleton fired-on by Argentine gunboat
1976: Argentina sets up illegal and clandestine military base on Southern Thule, a Falkland Islands Dependency situated south of South Georgia
1977: Argentine sailors land on the island of Morrell in the South Sandwich Islands, claiming they are undertaking scientific research
1977: Britain secretly sends a nuclear submarine and two frigates to the South Atlantic in response to Argentine preparations for naval 'manoeuvres' which then halt
1981: Argentina protests to UN over lack of progress on sovereignty dispute

All the above happened before General Galtieri's junta seized power in Argentina. I honestly think the issue is a big deal in Argentina, and has been for some time. You and I might not see a compelling reason for them to invest blood and treasure in taking the islands, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Argentinians did.

[General Pain]

Originally Posted by avantman42

Agreed, and I think that's similar to the situation in 1982. In 1982, Argentina didn't expect Britain to fight for the islands. There was some evidence to back up such a belief. Nicholas Ridley, the Minister of State, visited the islands in 1980 to try and convince the islanders to accept a leaseback proposal (where sovereignty would be transferred to Argentina, but Britain would lease back the islands for something like 100 years). In 1981, the British Nationality Act removed British nationality from many Falkland Islanders, and it was announced that HMS Endurance was to be scrapped, with no replacement planned.



I agree that the 1982 invasion was partly an attempt to get public support, but I don't think that wholly explains it. Argentina has long claimed the islands, and periodically does something about it. Some 20th-century examples:

1903: Argentina acquires administration of a meterological station in the South Orkney Islands, and claims it as evidence of a transfer of sovereignty throughout all the Falkland Islands Dependencies
1927: Argentina asks the International Postal Union to accept Argentine jurisdition over all the Falkland Islands Dependencies
1947: Argentina issues stamps for use in 'Malvinas and Dependencies'
1960: UN Resolution 1514 calls for an end to colonialism; Britain lists the Islands as a colony and Argentina objects
1964: An Argentine pilot lands a Cessna 172 on Stanley racecourse, plants Argentine flag and hands over letter declaring Argentine sovereignty
1966: Aerolineas Argentinas DC4 lands on Stanley racecourse after being hijacked by 20 terrorists calling themselves 'Condors' who take 4 Islanders prisoner but surrender after 1 night
1966: Argentine marines dropped off at night by submarine Santiago del Estero to reconnoitre potential landing beaches near Stanley
1968: Small private plane with 3 Argentines on board, sponsored by Argentine press, crash-lands in Stanley
1973: Newly-elected Argentine Peronist government renews sovereignty claim in the UN
1975: Air travellers from Falklands now required to obtain clearance from Argentine Foreign Ministry (all air travel to/from the islands is via Argentina)
1976: British Antarctic Survey ship RRS Shackleton fired-on by Argentine gunboat
1976: Argentina sets up illegal and clandestine military base on Southern Thule, a Falkland Islands Dependency situated south of South Georgia
1977: Argentine sailors land on the island of Morrell in the South Sandwich Islands, claiming they are undertaking scientific research
1977: Britain secretly sends a nuclear submarine and two frigates to the South Atlantic in response to Argentine preparations for naval 'manoeuvres' which then halt
1981: Argentina protests to UN over lack of progress on sovereignty dispute

All the above happened before General Galtieri's junta seized power in Argentina. I honestly think the issue is a big deal in Argentina, and has been for some time. You and I might not see a compelling reason for them to invest blood and treasure in taking the islands, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Argentinians did.

Good point - Imust agree.....

[Raellus]

Thanks for the history lesson, Russ. I've read Max Hastings' book on the Falklands War a couple of times but I didn't know about all of the previous 20th century Argentine attempts to reclaim the islands.

I guess it's pretty safe to assume, then, that post TDM (or possibly sooner), the Falklands would once again become the Islas Malvinas.

[pmulcahy11b]

Abandoned; the inhabitants either starve or make the long ocean trip to Argentina. The Argentines might want the islands as an early-warning station, but probably they'll just ignore them.

[Mohoender]

Cannon talked about the Falklands. From what I understand, they are not abandonned, the UK finally sending an home guard (reduced) battalion with light weaponries. I think it did so through airlift (that was imagine by someone else, a few years ago).

Argentina thought about taking it back and launched an attack. However, this was short lived due to the war with Brazil and the troops were finally withdrawn (page 241 in v2.2).

[Targan]

I don't think the islanders would starve. They are just as technologically advanced as any other British citizens and even without any imports I think they would do okay for many years. Greenhouses would provide them with vegetables, they have plenty of sheep for wool and meat and if they went back to small scale whaling they would have a great source of biodiesel.

[avantman42]

Originally Posted by Raellus

Thanks for the history lesson, Russ. I've read Max Hastings' book on the Falklands War a couple of times but I didn't know about all of the previous 20th century Argentine attempts to reclaim the islands.

No problem. I just hope it didn't come across as patronising. I seem to recall seeing a documentary once where an Argentinian said that kids there are taught that Britain stole the islands from Argentina years ago, and that most Argentinians feel very strongly that they should be returned. On the other hand, in 1982 very few Brits knew where they were. I was 12 when the Argentinians invaded, and remember wondering how they'd managed to get an invasion force to Scotland without being noticed

I guess it's pretty safe to assume, then, that post TDM (or possibly sooner), the Falklands would once again become the Islas Malvinas.[/QUOTE]
The v2 timeline says that Argentina invaded and took over the islands in 1997, but withdrew their forces in 1998 to reinforce the Brazil front.

I agree with Targan that the islanders probably wouldn't starve. As I wrote in the T2K wiki article

The islanders were in a relatively good position to cope with the effects of the war. The Islands had a population of about 3,000. Sheep farming (there were over 500,000 sheep on the islands at the start of the Twilight War) and fishing were the main industries. The Islands were already largely self-sufficient, so being cut off from the rest of the world had relatively little effect on them. They did rely on outside help for some medical care, however (there is a hospital in Stanley, though no ophthalmologists or opticians).

[Rainbow Six]

I'd tend to agree with Targan / Russ that the islanders would be fairly self sufficient.

Militarily, I go with canon (more or less) and have a Territorial Army Infantry Battalion replace the garrison's Regular Infantry so the Regulars can be redeployed to Europe, although I'd probably keep the other elements of the Regular garrison in place (e.g. Royal Artillery Air Defence Troop, Royal Engineers Squadron). I'd also retain the resident RAF Flight of four F3 Tornados (1435 Flight of memory serves?), but any Naval assets would be required elsewhere I would think.

Re what happens in 97 / 98, I must confess I hadn't really given it much thought up until now...from what I know I agree with the viewpoint that seizing the Falklands is engrained deep into the Argentinean culture, so no matter how strategically unsound such a move might be they'd be liable to give it a go if they could. The only thing I could see deterring them would be the presence of a British submarine, which would be able to send any invasion fleet to the bottom of the South Atlantic. But accepting that the Royal Navy can't keep an SSN on station off the Falklands forever as WW3 rages, yeah, I reckon the Argentineans would be able to make their move and get away with it.

[Fusilier]

Originally Posted by avantman42

The v2 timeline says that Argentina invaded and took over the islands in 1997, but withdrew their forces in 1998 to reinforce the Brazil front.

I think it states rather there was military action, but they didn't take over. The Argentinians withdrew, and the UK Battalion remained.