China in October 1996

[chico20854]

We're getting close to starting the wargaming of the conventional phase of the war, but we have one major unknown - the state of the war in China. We've used Webstral's The Storm in Germany, which leaves off in the winter of 1995-1996. We're starting in October 1996 with German reunification, but obviously the state of the war in China is going to have a big effect on Soviet actions.

So let me here your ideas on the state of the Chinese Army (types of units, numbers, equipment holdings) and where you think the front lines run as a result of the operations between the end of 1995 and October 1996! (I have a good picture of the Pact organization & equipment at this point, but am really just getting started on the PLA orbat and equipment holdings). Assume a more or less canon v1 timeline, modified solely by Webstral's work...

[Targan]

China and the USSR had a nasty little border war during the 60s didn't they? Maybe that would be a good starting point for looking at battle lines. There must be maps available that show where the major battles of that conflict occurred.

[General Pain]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-So...order_conflict

[fightingflamingo]

I think canon & Web's work portrays a substantially more intense conflict that the 1969 war, which really was a large skirmish. Web & canon, speak of large areas of Manchuria under Soviet occupation. An early engagements may have resembled the 1969 conflict, but rapidly escalated. By 1996 large areas of Manchuria would be under Soviet Occupation, possibly Shenyang under seige with some PLA forces in the pocket, along with large amounts of peoples militia.
Soviet forces would have to deploy some of their troops in the rear, as well as KGB Border Guard Mobile Groups to suppress insurgent activities of Chinese Peoples Militia.
the Air situation over Manchura would be dominated by the Red Airforce, with the remaining Chinese Air Assets concentrated on defending the local airspace above ports & remaining intact industrial centers producing war material for the PLA. Additionally, the PLAAF might move it's nuclear capable aircraft (or a portion there of) as far south as possible to protect against Soviet counter air missions, possibly as far south as Hainan.

[Jason Weiser]

Ok,
The way I see it is this...the 1996 Spring offensive is aimed at pocketing and reducing Harbin, as well as inflicting a massive defeat on the PLA to force them to the table. Soviet airborne drops are to seize bridges and a vital pass via the Sungari river to allow Soviet tank spearheads to exploit South and West to take
Baicheng and Changchun some 140-odd miles away. With that, the new front line can be consolidated and Harbin reduced at the Red Army's leisure...

Needless to say, nothing goes according to plan. The airdrops are cut to pieces, and the Red Army barely advances 20 miles in the teeth of an improved Chinese defense, including "new model" brigades (the first two to be exact), the "New AVG" contesting Soviet air superiority, and the widespread use of improved ATGM and ICM by the Chinese. Also, a massive uprising by Chinese militia occurs in the Soviet rear. While the Soviets put it down, they are forced into some pretty draconian means to do it.

Comments?

[Raellus]

Apart from the specificity of the place names you cited, that seems to mirror canon pretty closely, Jason. Sounds reasonable to me.