The moments before the beginning of the Twilight Age

[Marc]

The reading of the Year of the Zombie thread suggested me a field in the Twilight world that deserves some discussion.
Most of the movies or books dealing with the matter of a nuclear war play with the threat of a total, non-limited atomic exchange and its consequences. Some of them (The Wargame, Threads, The day after...) depict the citizens caught totally unaware of the ongoing end, though some clues about an unstable international background are given (Threads). In that situation we will enter to the apocalypse in a few hours, perhaps ignoring that someone has pressed the button until you see the first mushroom cloud through your window. Under a certain point of view your options will be limited. If you are not dead and you are still able to decide, you can kill yourself or you can try to survive. The world and the civilization as you knew them have disappeared in the blink of an eye. No ambiguities, little hope and a lot of desperation...

But the situation depicted in the different Twilight timelines is not like this. Following with the timeline of v2, international tensions escalate, war erupts and, in the summer of 1997 the first nuclear devices are used. Since the very first moment and before the first nuclear strike, a good part of the population in both sides will be conscious of the terrible consequences of such a conflict. Of course, it depends about the available information. But if we take as example the average European citizen of the 90's, even if the available information when at war would be filtered or adulterated, he/she had enough information in peace time to be terribly scared about the possible consequences of a Third World War. They will not be, for example, the naive citizens that enlisted enthusiastically and strongly support their respective governments at the first stages of the First World War. And the shadow of a conventional war evolving to a nuclear exchange will be present months ago the first use of any nuclear device. It seems easy to relate this fear with the retreat of some former members from NATO in 1996.

And then, in July 9th 1997, the first tactical nuclear weapons are used... The ghost is now a palpable reality. At first the targets are the armies in the front line. But nothing or little is explained about the reactions of the people at home. There's always a certain inertia in our societies that keep things working to the same direction for a time. But even before the first use of nuclear weapons against non-military targets a lot of the old things will not make sense. I think that some systems and countries would simply collapse. I know little about economy but our western system is shaking right now for some insignificant cause in comparison with the Twilight situation. Riots, absurd political measures, growing rumors that cause massive displacements of people fleeing away from the proximity of a possible nuclear target, scarce availability of fuel, martial law... My favourite chapters in Stephen King's "The Stand" are those that explain all the bizarre situations in the collapsing world.

So, once the world has ended things are clear. But what happens when you still has a little hope that the situation could improve, when you still feel some confidence about that nobody would press the button? What will happen in our countries when nukes begin to fall "sparingly at first" in the front lines?

Mmmmm...And interesting setup for very challenging campaign. Perhaps with the characters being a group of cops while everything is falling apart?

[Raellus]

A very interesting question and premise for an unconventional Twilight Campaign, Marc.

I see hoarding being a problem at first- bottled water, batteries, canned food, etc. And as certain products become more scarce, a black market would develop. A certain level of criminal behavior usually coallesces around black markets. With increasing shortages, food riots could ensue.

I see people with the means to do so moving to out of the way country estates, mountain cabins, etc. At first, this would take place in areas threatened by the conventional fighting. I see some folks taking advantage and trying to loot vacated properties. In response, perhaps a certain level of vigilantiism would develop where much of the citizenry is armed (I'm thinking of the U.S.). Others I see just sitting tight and hoping for the best. A great and relatively modern example is the "evacuation" of Eastern Prussia as the Red Army steamrolled into Greater Germany.

With the onset of tactical nuclear strikes, I see some cities vacated in a panic, highways clogged with cars and busses and such. At this point, you'd either see strangers banding together to help one another OR people looking out only for themselves and taking advantage of others. It would probably be a bit of both. I guess this question boils down to whether you are optimistic or pessimistic about human nature.

I think you raise a really interesting point about the Twilight War being really unpopular with the general public. Maybe you'd see draft riots.

In the U.S. at least (I don't know enough about other countries' reserves/mobilization systems), a lot of law enforcement personel are military reservists or National Guard members. With the war picking up speed, a lot of them would be recalled to active duty. This would leave law enforcement agencies with fewer bodies to deal with the increasing load of problems briefly touched on above. It would not be pretty. Once again, in the U.S. at least, I see crime rates going up and vigilantiism popping up to deal with it.

[Webstral]

I'm on my second draft of a piece that dovetails into this thread. I've been talking about the run-up to the November 1997 attacks on CONUS. I've been focusing on how people have reacted to nuclear scares and how the scares have affected readiness. It's quite timely that you have been thinking about similar sorts of things, Marc.

Webstral

[natehale1971]

i've been thinking of doing a series of news reports leading up to the Twilight War, and use those news reports that detail the various evacuation plans to get people out of the cities that gave the soviets all the intell that they would have needed to make the TDM as devistating as possible. you just know that the media would have reported on the evac plans for civlians AND for the government officials (like the plan to get the federal government burecrats out of DC in under 15 minutes that we learned about a few years ago).

anyone know where i could find some examples of the kinds of reports?

I have been thinking of using the post-9/11 news reports to cover the post-TDM news reports... But i still need some help with the build-up to the TDM exchanges.

And i am thinking of continuing the reports through the Summer Offensive. I am thinking of news reports being done similar to how they had been done during the second world war with news reel reports and of course the revival of the newspapers.

[Cdnwolf]

Hmmm where to go where to go....

http://www.cnn.com/WORLD/

http://www.ap.org/

http://news.bbc.co.uk/

[natehale1971]

I didn't mean that... I was asking for the kinds of reports that would exist.. I'm sorry that i didn't make it clear.

I'm asking for examples of the kinds of reports that would be made, that would be taking advantage of the situation to either promote fear to retain viewers, or to try and downplay the situation in an effort to keep the people at home calm.

i'm looking for some of the reports prior to the entry of the US in WW2 as examples. such as the reports before 7 Dec 1941, and the aftermath of the attack on Pearl. Or even some of the reports after 9/11 detailing prepreations being taken by the government for evacuation, ect.

I remember growing up with nuke attack drills in elementary school during the 1970s, and was wondering if anyone remembered any of the reports the media did on covering evac / contingency plans the government took.

Heck, I still remember the Greenbrair report going out in the late-1980s... I just can't find them online. my google-fu isn't as strong as it once was thanks to the fact i'm not sleeping right.

[chico20854]

Originally Posted by natehale1971

i've been thinking of doing a series of news reports leading up to the Twilight War, and use those news reports that detail the various evacuation plans to get people out of the cities that gave the soviets all the intell that they would have needed to make the TDM as devistating as possible.

I'm not sure the Soviets wanted the TDM to be "as devastating as possible". The description of the nuclear exchange is one of carefully targeted, gradually escalating strikes against targets of military significance. If the USSR wanted the attacks to be devastating (a "counter-value" strike in the parlance of the day) they wouldn't need evacuation plans, they'd need the US census results.

Originally Posted by natehale1971

you just know that the media would have reported on the evac plans for civlians AND for the government officials (like the plan to get the federal government burecrats out of DC in under 15 minutes that we learned about a few years ago).

I think you're putting too much faith in the effectiveness of the federal government. First, to evac DC there are 2 states, 5 counties and the District itself that are the immediate surroundings. After nearly 8 years of post-9-11 planning and coordination there is still no evacuation plan for DC. Some of those governments have plans, some might, but none of them are coordinated (for example, DC designates one road as a major evac route, but once it crosses the border into Maryland the road goes down to 2 lanes and really doesn't go anywhere) and only a few of them are public. As for getting the federal bureaucrats out of DC in under 15 minutes, no way - a third or more of downtown DC is federal employees, and in my federal building we have a goal to get the building evacuated in 15 minutes, but from then you're on your own and you better hope you're wearing comfortable shoes because its a long walk...

I did cover some of these issues in my article on the State Guards, too.

[natehale1971]

Actually i got the 15 minute evac plan from some news articles that ran during the aftermath of 9/11... they can start the evac in only 15 minutes, and they can get them to 'safety' of the Continuality of Government facilities.

I can't remember the rest of the plans, i haven't been able to find the full article that had the actual times and schedule that showed how long each step was taken.


Federal Workers Get Evacuation Plan
at Aug 17, 5:03 AM ET

WASHINGTON (AP) - The Bush administration has reportedly approved a plan designed to initiate an evacuation of the nation's more than 2 million federal workers within 15 minutes if there is a broad attack or threat from nuclear, chemical or biological weapons.

Under the plan, the heads of the Office of Personnel Management, Federal Emergency Management Agency and General Services Administration may release up to 350,000 federal workers in the Washington area and 1.8 million nationwide if a threat is confirmed, The Washington Post reported in Saturday editions.

Directors of the three agencies could alert the White House, local officials and regional emergency managers within minutes, the Post said. Federal agencies and the public would then be notified.

The plan, prompted by confusion during the Sept. 11 attacks, is intended to allow for an orderly evacuation, the newspaper said. The procedures have been months in development and were presented to local government officials this summer.

The three agencies have set up new 24-hour operation centers, which are in constant contact with federal, state and local law enforcement, the Post said. Some government officials have been assigned cellular or satellite phones or other wireless devices along with emergency call lists.

Scott Hatch, a spokesman for the Office of Personnel Management, told the Post the plan is designed to begin the evacuation within 15 minutes.


DOJgov.net Newswire July 4, 2002

The concept of maintaining continuity of government during and after an emergency is not a new idea.

During the Cold War, Congress established elaborate and rather luxurious survival facilities in the mountains of West Virginia. Presumably, while the American "common folk" would be incinerated, the privileged could survive and guarantee the continuity of government and civilization based on their own criteria for human survival.

It was on this premise that in 1964, the great film Director Stanley Kubrick created the classic "Dr. Strangelove."

According to the Washington Post (March 2002), the operation was re-activated after the 11 September attacks. It is reported to involve officials drawn from all departments, depending on the perceived level of threat (or in the case of Dr. Strangelove... position in government, superior genetics and potential virility for human regeneration).

Those taking part, live and work underground for long spells at secret fortified locations on the East Coast. The core group of federal managers would be drawn from the same bureaucratic minions whose self pre-occupation, negligence and apathy caused the deaths of thousands in the World Trade Center.

The plan for a shadow government has been implemented now because of heightened fears that Osama Bin Laden's al-Qaeda network might obtain portable nuclear weapons.

An unnamed senior official told the Associated Press news agency that while US intelligence had no specific knowledge of such weapons, the risk was great enough to warrant activation of the plan. Dick Cheney's survival may provide legitimacy for constitutional succession, but he can't run the country by himself.

He went on to say that President George W. Bush did not foresee ever needing to turn over government functions to the secret operation, but believed it was prudent to put the plan into action in the light of the war against terrorism and persistent threats of future attacks.

Other officials, who spoke to the Washington Post newspaper, said the back-up government consisted of anything from 70 to 150 people at two principal locations on the East Coast. They are suspected to be living and working in heavily fortified mountain bunkers, carved out under Pennsylvania's Raven Rock Mountain and Weather Mountain in Virginia during the Cold War in the 1950s.

These underground cities are home to government officials who rotate through on three-month stints. Their identities and even their titles are kept secret. As with all budding bureaucracies, it is not unreasonable to assume that this number will increase, as will the funding and lavishness of accommodations.

Once activated for what some call "bunker duty", they live and work underground 24 hours a day, away from their families. No formal mention was made relative to having families join them as accommodations grow larger.

Those deployed for the operation are not allowed to tell anyone where they are going or why. "They're on a 'business trip', that's all," one official was quoted as saying.

Although it does not identify the exact location of these sites, the Washington Post says they make use of geological features to render them highly secure. They are well stocked with food, water, medicine and other supplies and are capable of generating their own power. There are video links, computers and other connections to the unprotected and totally vulnerable civilian populace.

The newspaper said that only the executive branch is represented in the full-time shadow administration. Other branches - such as Congress and the judiciary - have separate continuity plans.

The Bush administration is following a script that was maintained during every administration, up through the Clinton years. But at the Pentagon, at the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and at the new Office of Homeland Security (Now being elevated to a 170,000 strong super Agency), officials have been busy updating those plans, particularly the way they relate to using the military as a kind of domestic national police for "continuity of government." For those unaware of fed-speak, this means the protecting of elected officials and bureaucrats from the rest of us, who are viewed as the potential enemy.

Many people feel that the Posse Comitatus act of 1878, might protect them from a police state combining the military and civil law enforcement, with heavy managerial input by the US Department of Justice. But laws are already on the books authorizing martial law, including Section 32CFR 501.4** of the Code of Federal Regulations. These are the rules written by unelected bureaucrats that govern our lives.

In broad based terms, the CFR simply states: "Martial law depends for its justification upon public necessity." **(If you have Adobe Acrobat Reader installed you can view 32 CFR 501.4 in PDF format by double clicking this hyperlink with your left mouse button. You can download by right clicking and then left clicking.)

And let us not forget that vast emergency federal powers by decree dates at least to John Kennedy, who issued a raft of such orders during the Cold War. You can read recent Executive Orders and look up the topics of all modern Executive Orders by going to http://www.archives.gov/search/index.html National Archives and Records. They are difficult to pull up and include Executive Orders 12919, 12656, 13228 and the ominous Executive Order 11490. In force today (or replaced by something worse), they reveal how easily our individual liberties and constitutional government can be set aside. For downloads of documents, Right Click on the above Executive Order hyperlinks and Left Click to view or download.

With constitutional government "temporarily" placed in the garbage heap, the American people would be subject to direct control by unelected bureaucrats scrambling to shore up a jack boot heel on the dreams of our Founding Fathers.
Federal Workers Get Terrorist Evacuation Plan - The Rest of America Can Go to Hell




DOJgov.net Newswire

August 17, 2002

In a bipartisan attempt aimed at shielding the federal bureaucracy from danger, the Bush administration has reportedly approved a safety evacuation plan for saving the nation's more than 2 million federal workers within 15 minutes.

According to today's edition of the Washington Post, upon confirmation of a threat, the Office of Personnel Management, Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and General Services Administration may release up to 350,000 federal workers in the Washington area and 1.8 million nationwide.
Directors of the three agencies could alert the White House, local officials and regional emergency managers within minutes, the Post said.

Presumably, the American taxpayers who fund these agencies' federal employees will be afforded an "after the fact" warning and be left to fend for themselves.

The plan, prompted by confusion during the Sept. 11 attacks, is intended to allow for an orderly evacuation, the newspaper said.

The procedures have been months in development and were presented to local government officials this summer.

No explanation was given why the life of a federal employee is worth more than anyone else. And while the rest of the American people might face hardship, starvation and death under Martial Law, federal bureaucrats will continue receiving full salaries, medical care, lavish pension funding and guaranteed jobs.

The three agencies have set up new 24-hour operation centers, which are in constant contact with federal, state and local law enforcement, the Post said. Some government officials have been assigned cellular or satellite phones or other wireless devices along with emergency call lists.

Scott Hatch, a spokesman for the Office of Personnel Management, told the Post the plan is designed to begin the evacuation within 15 minutes.

[Littlearmies]

Originally Posted by Raellus

I see hoarding being a problem at first- bottled water, batteries, canned food, etc. And as certain products become more scarce, a black market would develop. A certain level of criminal behavior usually coallesces around black markets. With increasing shortages, food riots could ensue.

Originally Posted by Raellus

I see people with the means to do so moving to out of the way country estates, mountain cabins, etc. At first, this would take place in areas threatened by the conventional fighting. I see some folks taking advantage and trying to loot vacated properties. In response, perhaps a certain level of vigilantiism would develop where much of the citizenry is armed (I'm thinking of the U.S.). Others I see just sitting tight and hoping for the best. A great and relatively modern example is the "evacuation" of Eastern Prussia as the Red Army steamrolled into Greater Germany.

Here in the UK there are an awful lot of cottages in West Scotland that have been abandoned (to the extent that some local schools are no longer seen as viable - http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/...ds/6964894.stm - )there is a healthy little industry refurbishing these buildings for holiday homes and I would see holiday lets being taken on year round and the refurbishment process accelerating rapidly. I think it would be wives and children evacuated at first while the husband remained to work and keep an eye on the family home. I think there would be a lot of children packed off to stay with cousins and family friends who lived in isolated communities. I think these little island communities would have a short lived economic boom - although this might be crimped by the fact that CalMac ferries would probably be requisitioned for service resupplying allied forces in Europe.

I also think there would be a lot of tension between the natives and the "white settlers" who had recently moved in. I also think there would be a growth in self sufficiency on an individual level - "digging for victory" would come back as people planted vegetables wherever they could and began to think about keeping chickens and so on.

Originally Posted by Raellus

With the onset of tactical nuclear strikes, I see some cities vacated in a panic, highways clogged with cars and busses and such. At this point, you'd either see strangers banding together to help one another OR people looking out only for themselves and taking advantage of others. It would probably be a bit of both. I guess this question boils down to whether you are optimistic or pessimistic about human nature.

Keeping the Scottish islands in mind I think the husbands back in Glasgow, London etc would find they had issues getting to their families because so many of the ferries had been taken up by the government - they'd have to barter with local fishermen or pleasure boat owners to get them to their new home. Of course there would be a few inshore vessels still running including the last Clyde Puffers:

http://www.tradboat2.co.uk/sourcepag...rce%20page.htm

I can't help thinking that these old girls would come into their own in T2K and that you could devise an interesting campaign running one of these as a tramp steamer helping the island communities survive.

Originally Posted by Raellus

I think you raise a really interesting point about the Twilight War being really unpopular with the general public. Maybe you'd see draft riots.

Well, not wanting to get political but the war in Iraq was very unpopular in Britain, and Afghanistan seems to be turning into another Vietnam, our PM was at the economic helm during the events that led up to our credit crunch and seems incapable of admitting he's wrong about anything: Frankly I begrudge handing over my taxes to the fools in power right now like I never have before - if they were to lead this country into a nuclear war I'm pretty sure I would just cease to co-operate whenever possible (which presumably be whenever someone "official" was nowhere in sight) unless I could see a direct and immediate advantage in it for me and mine. I wouldn't riot but I'd be quite happy to break any rules that conflicted with what I wanted to do.

Originally Posted by Raellus

In the U.S. at least (I don't know enough about other countries' reserves/mobilization systems), a lot of law enforcement personel are military reservists or National Guard members. With the war picking up speed, a lot of them would be recalled to active duty. This would leave law enforcement agencies with fewer bodies to deal with the increasing load of problems briefly touched on above. It would not be pretty. Once again, in the U.S. at least, I see crime rates going up and vigilantiism popping up to deal with it.

I would think that with the American tradition a first step of the hard pressed US Police Chief would be to deputise suitable members of the public, give them a short basic training in patrol work and then partner them experienced officers (and watch for a rapid rise in officer involved shootings as the new deputies opened fire when a more experienced officer would seek to calm things down). But your specialist squads would I think be decimated - you can't just pull a detective straight off the street.