The people of Poland

[Legbreaker]

I've seen an increase over the past few years in people seemingly believing that in T2K the Polish people are apparently more likely to defect to the west than to fight against them. I'd like to list a few reasons why I feel that in the T2K timeline this is very unlikely.

1. Germany invaded Poland in 1939
I think we know how much the Poles suffered over the next 6 years of occupation....

2. Germany invaded Poland in 1996 - again!
This is a clear cut violation of Poland's borders. Depending on which version you go by, NATO does not support Germany's actions for either weeks (2nd ed I think) or months (1st ed). France and Italy (I believe) go so far as to withdraw from NATO in protest.

3. The Polish people were badly treated by the west at the end of WWII.
The Polish government in exile were promised by the British that they would support them after the war. Obviously there had been a lot of good will prior to the war (England declared war on Germany after they invaded Poland).
Post war, once the Polish manpower and soldiering skill was no longer needed, Poles were made to feel extremely unwelcome - ignored in shops, etc in favour of pretty much anyone else there, passed over for jobs, rejected for housing and so on.
Although most knew what they faced by going home to Poland, many felt they had little choice if they wanted a roof over their heads and food in their children's bellies. That sort of treatment is going to leave a mark, and resurface when the west invade their lands.

4. The Soviets had decades to indoctrinate the Polish people against the west.
Propaganda campaigns must have had some effect. The Soviets had about 50 years to perfect it.

5. NATO nuked the hell out of Poland in their 1997 withdrawal.
Yes, the Soviets probably did a little of the damage too, but NATO wasn't hanging about to tell their side of the story. Once again, Propaganda comes into play.

That's the big 5 points, but I'm sure there's plenty more others can think up.

This is not to say individuals will not defect, even small units and groups, but on the whole it is my belief that the Poles as a nation (even the smoking crater that remains) is likely to be rather hostile to NATO, specifically Germans and to a slightly lesser extent the English and Americans (who deserted them in their hour of need in 1945).

[dragoon500ly]

I do believe that you hit the nail with the first blow of the hammer!

Excellent points!

[Targan]

Great summary Leg. I think that by 2000 the majority of Poles wouldn't be pro-WarPac or pro-NATO, they'd prefer to see all foreigners out of what was left of their shattered country. If they had to choose a preference it would probably be for the side they perceived to have caused the least amount of damage in their local area.

[Rainbow Six]

Originally Posted by Legbreaker

1. Germany invaded Poland in 1939
I think we know how much the Poles suffered over the next 6 years of occupation....

Whilst I'm not disagreeing with you, I think it would be remiss not to point out that the Soviet Union also invaded Poland in 1939...

Personally I'm inclined to agree with Targan's point of view.

[B.T.]

Leg, a lot of points are defenitely right, but ...

I talked to several born Poles in the last few years, although I'd never say, these persons share the point of view of the Polish majority. All of the Poles I talked to really did not like communist Russia/Soviet Union (I would not go so far to say they all hated the Soviets.). There have been problems with the minority of Poles with German roots, but there are relatively many Poles with ties to Germany.

I personally think, Targan is right.

One should not forget, that the majority of the Poles are catholics. The Osprey Elite No. 10 "Warsaw Pact Ground Forces" mentiones the Polish chaplain corps, which is unique in the WarPac Armies. And the Soviets were not fond of that!
As Rainbow allready said, the Soviets participated in the invasion of Poland in '39. The Poles did not forget about the slaughter of more than 10 000 officers in the war. And the Soviets did nothing to help the uprisings in Warsaw in 1944 (Where the Home Army - the only kind of anti-communist movement - was killed by the Germans!). So: Although the Germans had been the enemy (and a mean and mercyless one!), the Soviets were not really friends.

All this said leads - IMHO - to the conclusion, that the Poles will not felt tied to the West or the East. The Soviets are supposingly as unwelcomed as the Germans!

[Rainbow Six]

I forgot about the Soviets sitting on their hands on the east bank of the Vistula whilst the Germans levelled Warsaw.

Re: the massacre of Polish officers at Katyn, I think the Soviets only admitted to that after the fall of the Berlin Wall, so I wonder how much the average Pole would have known about that, at least in a V1 timeline? Wikipedia says that Solidarity erected a memorial in 1981, so it would seem to have been out in the open - might have been a useful propaganda weapon for NATO to exploit at the start of 1997.

[Adm.Lee]

Katyn was pretty well known during WW2 among the Poles in exile, AFAIK. That was a big sticking point between the British and Polish governments, as the Poles didn't want to let Stalin off the hook, and the British (and later Americans) rather wished it would go away and not offend the Soviets. Since the information came from the Red Cross through the Germans, some wanted to believe it was a Nazi provocation.

If we're talking invasions, don't forget the 1919-20 Polish-Soviet War.

IMO, the bulk of the Polish population might wish to be rid of the Soviets, but NATO couldn't do much to win them over to active support. And yes, the German participation/leadership of the eastward drive should have depressed that support.

I hypothesize that at least some Polish individuals would have taken the opportunity to join the American/British elements of NATO in '97, but very few after that. A Polish Free Legion could have formed, but I don't think it would be even as big as a division. An argument may be that some would think if they help the Americans and British, then they could have some leverage against the Germans. Thus, my suggestion of an attempted coup among Polish army units in 2000 to suddenly become an independent actor.

[natehale1971]

I've always seen the Poles as being the irate parents of the school-aged hosts of a party that has completely trashed their house when they come home early from their weekend getaway. They don't give a damn who or what you are, just get the hell out of MY HOUSE!

And with how weakened both NATO and Warsaw Pact forces are, the Poles actually have the ability to push everyone out of their country if they were just able to get all of the Polish Nationals to actually work together. And that's the problem... You have the Poles divided into three major political power blocks (not counting the true independents like Krakow), The Pro-NATO Democratic government, the Pro-Warsaw Pact Communist government and the isolationist and Xenophobic group whose ideals have become Poland for Poles ONLY and are shooting at ANYONE NOT POLISH.

And in all honesty, the majority of ANY survivor communities would put on a friendly face to any armed force coming through their territory, if just to keep from getting raped and pillaged. And acting friendly and helping out while the forces are going where ever it is they are going, while keeping track of them for their TRUE allegiance is what is actually happening.

This gives you alot more chances for Role-playing in the setting, especially when the Polish community that is being so nice and helpful is just waiting for you to leave so they can tell which of the three Polish governments they are actually a part of, all about you!