The Falklands

[James Langham]

V1 and 2.X give different views as to what happened in the Falklands. This is intended to reconcile the two versions:

In August Argentina tries to divert attention from the poor situation at home considers launching an invasion of the Falklands. A naval task force is prepared and even sets sail. Following these Argentinian military moves, the company of British troops was augmented to a combined battalion (mainly consisting of TA - one ex-regular sergeant had even been there as a Lance-Corporal in 2 Para in 1982!) on the Falkland Islands arriving just before the task force is in a position to launch. The Argentines backed down with the Argentine government planning to let the islands gradually suffer with reduced support from the UK and decide to establish closer links with Argentina (and in years to come gradually become Argentinian). The defending battalion however remained on the islands not seeing combat. Or at least this was believed to be the situation until records were released under the thirty year rule which shows that the TA were engaged in a nasty game of cat and mouse with a unit of Argentine Naval Commandos that had landed 24 hours in advance of the main body. One of the RAF's 1435 Flight's F3 Tornados is lost when it collides with an Argentine Mirage when shadowing the Argentine fleet.

[Rainbow Six]

Hi James,

Personally, I'm not sure that if a task force had already set sail from Argentina, we'd be able to get reinforcements to the south Atlantic quickly enough to make a difference (I think this was one of the problems in 1982), so I'd be inclined to suggest that British Intelligence gets word that the Argentineans are assembling a task force so sends the reinforcements before it sets sail, causing the Argentineans to back down.

I think the other factor that might be important is the possibility of a Royal Navy Hunter Killer sub being active off the Falklands (I could imagine HM Government making sure the Argentines thought that one was present, even if it was a bluff...). That option is obviously much less likely (though not impossible) the longer the Twilight War goes on - when you mention the Argentine task force setting sail in August, which year are you referring to?

Finally, the nuclear genie is well and tryly out of the bottle by the end of 1997. Who knows whether HMG might nuke Buenos Aires if the Argentineans make a move after that time? (Or again, threaten to do so as a bluff...)

I also think that the Falkland Islanders would manage to remain fairly self sufficient during the Twilight War, and there would be little likelihood of them voluntarily establishing closer links with Argentina.

Also, the Falklands has come up here before....you might be interested in this thread...

http://forum.juhlin.com/showthread.p...ight=Falklands

Cheers

Dave

[James Langham]

Originally Posted by Rainbow Six

Hi James,

Personally, I'm not sure that if a task force had already set sail from Argentina, we'd be able to get reinforcements to the south Atlantic quickly enough to make a difference (I think this was one of the problems in 1982), so I'd be inclined to suggest that British Intelligence gets word that the Argentineans are assembling a task force so sends the reinforcements before it sets sail, causing the Argentineans to back down.

I think the other factor that might be important is the possibility of a Royal Navy Hunter Killer sub being active off the Falklands (I could imagine HM Government making sure the Argentines thought that one was present, even if it was a bluff...). That option is obviously much less likely (though not impossible) the longer the Twilight War goes on - when you mention the Argentine task force setting sail in August, which year are you referring to?

Finally, the nuclear genie is well and tryly out of the bottle by the end of 1997. Who knows whether HMG might nuke Buenos Aires if the Argentineans make a move after that time? (Or again, threaten to do so as a bluff...)

I also think that the Falkland Islanders would manage to remain fairly self sufficient during the Twilight War, and there would be little likelihood of them voluntarily establishing closer links with Argentina.

Also, the Falklands has come up here before....you might be interested in this thread...

http://forum.juhlin.com/showthread.p...ight=Falklands

Cheers

Dave

Sorry as it is pulled from my history it doesn't have the date, it's 1996.

I had assumed that the fleet preparing resulted in the flying in of reinforcements (not possible in 1982).

The Argentine alternative plan is wishful thinking and unlikely to work, especially after the war with Brazil.

[pmulcahy11b]

I think that realistically, the Falklands would be eventually forgotten about by England, leaving them to fend for themselves. I'd like to say that the Argentinians would be too busy with running their own falling-apart country to worry about the Falklands, but they just might take the opportunity to take them back. I'd also like to think that the British on the Falklands would be allowed to remain by the Argentinians undisturbed, but I think there'd be some ugly racial violence.

[James Langham]

Originally Posted by pmulcahy11b

I think that realistically, the Falklands would be eventually forgotten about by England, leaving them to fend for themselves. I'd like to say that the Argentinians would be too busy with running their own falling-apart country to worry about the Falklands, but they just might take the opportunity to take them back. I'd also like to think that the British on the Falklands would be allowed to remain by the Argentinians undisturbed, but I think there'd be some ugly racial violence.

I'm not so sure about forgetting them. Bear in mind there is a military garrison and a British military defeat there would be politically unthinkable (the Lib-Lab government will be acutely aware that the Conservatives will be able to say at the next election "we won them back for you to lose them").

A foreign adventure is a well known solution to internal problems. Gambling that a task force in 1996 would be far harder to mount than in 1982 (especially as the bulk of the Army is deployed to Germany or on home defence) would be a reasonable assumption.

[Rainbow Six]

Originally Posted by James Langham

Sorry as it is pulled from my history it doesn't have the date, it's 1996.

I had assumed that the fleet preparing resulted in the flying in of reinforcements (not possible in 1982).

The Argentine alternative plan is wishful thinking and unlikely to work, especially after the war with Brazil.

Yep, sounds feasable enough for 1996...and of course you're right about not having the option of RAF Mount Pleasant in 1982. Just out of curiosity, do you have an approx date for full mobilisation of the TA in your history?

Originally Posted by James Langham

I'm not so sure about forgetting them. Bear in mind there is a military garrison and a British military defeat there would be politically unthinkable (the Lib-Lab government will be acutely aware that the Conservatives will be able to say at the next election "we won them back for you to lose them").

A foreign adventure is a well known solution to internal problems. Gambling that a task force in 1996 would be far harder to mount than in 1982 (especially as the bulk of the Army is deployed to Germany or on home defence) would be a reasonable assumption.

I agree with both of these points. Actually it strikes me that if the Argentines decided to try and use force their best option might be to wait until some time in 1997 to make their move, by which time the British Army and the Royal Navy would be fully committed elsewhere. If they move any time before October 1996 there would be more options available to counter them (I still like the sub option....).

(Last paragraph based on V1 timeline...)

[pmulcahy11b]

Originally Posted by James Langham

A foreign adventure is a well known solution to internal problems. Gambling that a task force in 1996 would be far harder to mount than in 1982 (especially as the bulk of the Army is deployed to Germany or on home defence) would be a reasonable assumption.

Britain already has enough of a foreign adventure on its hands.

The problem is that sooner or later, the Falklands and the Mother Country are simply going to lose touch, since the distances are so vast, with everything except radio.