Semi-OT A silghtly off timeline for T2K

[Mohoender]

I know... last time I said I was posting my last timeline but you know how it is and I was not entirely satisfied with it.

Therefore, I kept working on it from time to times, keeping part of the spirit of T2K but not entirely. I wanted some equipments I couldn't put in the original timeline, I wanted a world which was not as fucked up as that of T2K (GM motivations and nothing to do with any critics on the original game) and I wanted more details on other regions. Here it is for your curiosity and critics. However, it is entirely non-canon and don't intend to be.

[Mohoender]

This year could have marked the beginning of the end for the Soviet Union and the Cold War but History took another turn. For most of the year, the Eastern block had remained controlled by Mikhael Gorbachev who had initiated a number of reforms at both political and economic levels. This had resulted in an increasing freedom of speach under “Glasnost” and revealed numerous disfunctionments (including widespread corruption) that had reduced the people confidence in the regime. Slowly, the lack of popular confidence has led to an increasing opposition within the Warsaw Pact but also within USSR itself. In Poland Solidarnosç becomes increasingly influencial while, on March 25, the candle demonstration, in Bratislava, is the first mass demonstration against a communist regime. At home, contestation is initiated by Estonia where 300.000 people demonstrate for independence on September 11. This is followed by the adoption of the Estonian Sovereignty Declaration on November 16. Soviet leadership basically let do while, meanwhile, Soviet troops withdraw from Afghanistan. In May, Gorbachev was still granted support when the Law on Cooperatives is adopted (permitting private ownership of businesses in the services, manufacturing, and foreign-trade sectors) but things started to change in June. At that time, during the CPSU's Nineteenth Party Conference, Gorbachev had launched radical reforms meant to reduce party control of the government apparatus and these lead to his first failure on October 1. On that day, Andrey Gromyko resigns from his position as chairman of the Presidium of the Supreme Soviet of USSR and, to most surprise, is succeeded by Yegor Ligachev (Ligachev who had been a protege of Gorbachev had become his challenger). Still, Gorbachev remains powerful and in power until December 1 when the Supreme Soviet rejects its proposal to establish a Congress of People's Deputies. On the next day a majority votes to dismiss him and he is put under house arrest in his Dacha on the Black Sea. Three days later, in a widely broadcasted speech, he declares that he goes into retirement. Anatoly Lukyanov succeeds him as the 7th General Secretary of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union. Concerns are expressed throughout the Western World while officials protests among most states in the Warsaw Pact.

In western Europe, the year is almost uneventful except for a series of attacks in Northern Ireland, culminating in the Milltown Cemetery Attack where Ulster Defence Association (UDA) member Michael Stone attacks the crowd with grenades and pistols, killing three and wounding over sixty (because they were likely to be Catholic). Except this, the only thing to note resides in the founding of Nazi document implicating Kurt Waldheim (Then, Austrian President) in World War II deportations.

US, however, is facing limited turmoil because of the Iran-Contra Scandal. Then, on January 25, U.S. Vice President George H.W. Bush and CBS News anchor Dan Rather clash over Bush's role in this during a contentious television interview. Nevertheless, this affair ends when Lieutenant Colonel Oliver North and Vice Admiral John Poindexter are indicted on charges of conspiracy to defraud the United States. Despite, the possible implication, that doesn’t slow Bush’s rise to the presidency and, on November 8, George H. W. Bush is elected over Michael Dukakis.

More events are taking place in the Middle East where Palestinians increasingly attempt to move troward the establishment of a sovereign state. On January 15, Palestinian protesters clash with Israeli police in Jerusalem. Then, on April 16, Israeli commandos kill the PLO's leader Abu Jihad in Tunisia but this doesn’t prevent the Palestinian Declaration of Independence approval by the Palestinian National Council (PNC) in Algiers on November 15, 1988, by a vote of 253 in favour 46 against and 10 abstentions. The region is also the theater of naval clash between the US Navy and the Iranian fleet. After damaged being sustained by the destroyer Samuel B. Roberts, a naval operation is launched by the US Navy, ending in the destruction of several Iranian ships. This occured only a few weeks before the end on the Iraq-Iran war on August 20.

In Africa, the Soviets had initiated several move toward disengagement as in Angola and Ethiopia. As a result, the government they previously supported are facing increasing difficulties in their military struggles as well illustrated in Ethiopia. There, on March 20, the EPLF enters the town of Afabet, victoriously concluding the Battle of Afabet.

In Asia, several political crisis are plaguing the different regime as it is the case in Myanmar, Malaysia and South Korea. This brought up several major political changes. Finally, in Latin America, a major political change is also initiated when Chilean president Augusto Pinochet is defeated in a national plebiscite which sought to renew his mandate.

[Mohoender]

All around the Warsaw Pact, the political change initiated in the Soviet Union doesn’t go with no consequences. In a speech given on January 1, Anatoly Lukyanov announces the end of Glasnost and a deep revision of Perestroika. Within the weeks following that declaration, KGB conducts numerous arrests of opponents all over Soviet Union and several medias are closed down. Moreover, KGB troops are taking position in several cities conducting thorrow controls over the population. When it comes to Perestroika, Lukyanov makes a second speech in March where he announces the modifications that are to take place. Perestroika is now to become what it should have been from the beginning: a deep economic reform. As a result, the Law on Cooperatives is confirmed and expended. Private property is to be allowed in agriculture, more emphasize will be placed on light industry and foreign investment will be facilitated. Price control, however, will be maintained but only to a certain level in order to fulfill two goals: giving more freedom of action to Soviet entrepreneurs and avoid a dangerous inflation. At last, military expenditures and policies are to be reviewed. Fleet Admiral Vladimir N. Chernavin declares that the Soviet Union doesn’t intend anymore to compete with the US Navy as this had been a task beyond reasonable reach. He adds that a strong deep water navy remains a necessity but overambitious ship building programs will be cancelled as priority is to be given to a modernization policy starting with a full refit of the four Kiev-class linked to further developments of modern designs. Older ships will be retired to be scrapped with some joining the newly created reserve fleets. It is also annouced that during peace time the strength of the land force will progressively be reduced. Several units will have their equipments put in storage while their personnels will pass to the reserve to be called under arms only in the case of threat. Then, modernization of the Air Force should accelerate as, given the large size of the Soviet Union, it is seen as instrumental in the control of airspace. This will be done by introducing new models but older aircrafts, such as Mig-21, Mig-23 and Su-17, should go through some extensive modernizations. At last, it is stated that the strategic forces will be reduced while discussions over further arms control treaties will continue.

Inside Soviet Union itself, as the new political line appears, growing civil unrest and ethnic strife result in demonstrations and riots. In Nagorno-Karabakh, a conflict had started over in 1988 but by January the Red Army has been ordered to restore order, a move welcomed by most Armenians. In Georgia, on April, MVD troops break up a peaceful demonstration at the government building in Tbilisi. Six Georgians are killed and dozens wounded but the worse has been avoided and negociations start between the communists and a Georgian opposition hotile to central rule. On the other side of the Caspian Sea, communist strongmen are fully put back in power, several thousands demonstrators are arrested and stability is mostly maintained. The situation is more confused in the Baltic Republics where a move toward independence was initiated last year in Estonia. This move continues and, to most surprise, is tolerated by the Supreme Soviet even when similar movements seem to spread to Lithuania. Finally, on August 23 that Latvia catches up when, in order to draw the world's attention to the fate of the Baltic nations, Latvians, Lithuanians and Estonians joined hands in a human chain that stretched 600 kilometres from Tallinn, to Riga, to Vilnius. The human chain is called the Baltic Way and again, unlike what had happened in the Caucasus and Central Asia, the Red Army doesn’t move.

Outside USSR, aid to foreign nations is reduced with the exception of Mongolia, Cuba and Afghanistan. By mid-February, soviet troops had left Afghanistan and Najibullah’s regime remains alone to face the Mujahideen. Nevertheless, despite withdrawal, Moscow grants financial support and the communists government is able to retain power and even regain the initiative.

Meanwhile, all across Warsaw Pact, pro-democracy demonstrations, often peaceful, are held as the communist grip over Eastern Europe loosen. Indeed, the Soviets are concentrating on their domestic problems and let Warsaw Pact members engage in a path toward freedom. Hungary slowly remove border restrictions and the Hungarian Republic is officially declared in October. Poland legalize Solidarnosç and, on August 19, president Wojciech Jaruzelski nominates Solidarity activist Tadeusz Mazowiecki to be Prime Minister. Czechoslovakian velvet revolution results in the fall of communist rule on December 29 while Bulgaria moves away from hardline communism. Romania is stroke by a full fledge revolution that starts in Timisoara and ends with the execution of Nicolae Ceausescu and his wife Elena on December 25. Then, the most striking blow came from East Germany, on October 16, at Leipzig where 120,000 had shown up. Military units that had been held on stand-by in the vicinity refuse to battle the demonstrators protesting the regime. Lukyanov refuses to let Soviet troops become engaged, and so, the entire single party system in East Germany collapses. The Berlin Wall becomes history on November 9. In the meantime, almost all over Eastern Europe, a number of German ethnic organizations form in response to West Germany's policy of accepting as a German citizen anyone who can prove themselves of Germanic descent (it is rumored that membership in ethnic clubs is good enough). Outside the Warsaw Pact, communist rule survives but it is greatly weakened as in Yugoslavia and Albania.

Elsewhere, the situation varies and a number of events occurs. However, most are not seen as significant. Iran breaks off diplomatic relations with United Kingdom over Salman Rushdie's The Satanic Verses. Christian General Michel Aoun declares a 'War of Liberation' to rid Lebanon of Syrian forces and their allies. An attempted coup against President Aquino of the Philippines is foiled (with the help of American air cover). In Venezuela, the Caracazo, a popular uprising,occured in february but is crushed by security forces killing up to 3000. The republic of Panama is invaded by the U.S. to remove the government of Manuel Noriega.

Then, a most important event takes place in China, on June 4, when the political reform movement is brutally crushed by government military forces at Tien An Men. As this becomes a symbol, Deng Xiaoping retires from public view and power is slowly passed onto a third generation of leadership led by Jiang Zemin. Nevertheless, China is again isolated as the Western countries treats it as an international pariah and issue a number of foreign trade embargo. Hardliners had taken over the government and begin reigning in free enterprise, also attempting to revive Maoist propaganda and ideological campaigns. However, the public largely treates this with apathy and, in practice, the changes of the last decade made it impossible to ever truly return to the ways of Mao's time. Despite retreating into its shell, China's government continues to state that it welcomes foreign business and investment but economy slows down as Beijing now has little partner to deal with. The situation favors USSR own opening policy which welcome more foregin business partners over the last six months of the year.

[Mohoender]

The movement toward democracy in the Eastern Bloc continues and the movement initiated outside of Russia still spreads to USSR. In May, the New Armenian Army (NAA) is established and clashes soon brake out with Soviet Internal Security Forces (MVD) troops based in Yerevan. In March, Lithuania had been the first Baltic Republic to declare sovereignty and the Kremlin favors negociations. By June, the Supreme Soviet of USSR officially surrenders national sovereignty to the Baltic Republics while still ruling Lithuania’s declarations of independence to be invalid. Meanwhile, Lukyanov, taking over Gorbachev’s former project, attempts to reassert control over the other republics by negociating a new union treaty that should refound USSR. Largely criticized in the western republics it generates more interests in the East as the New Perestroika is showing its first sign of success with an economic situation improving slightly by February. Moreover, when Chinese Prime-minister Li Peng comes to Moscow in an official visit, on April 1990, he receives a warm welcome. Both Li Peng and Lukyanov agree to meet again next year to finally resolve the various tensions that had plagued their countries relations for a little over two decades.

In Eastern Europe, the movement toward freedom accelerates and the year starts with people storming the Stasi HQ in East Germany. Soon after, the Soviet Union agrees to withdraw all its troops from Czechoslovakia. This movement culminates with the reunification of Germany becoming reality in October. A month later, Germany and Poland reach an agreement over their border dispute and the German-Polish Border Treaty is signed by both countries Foreign Ministers. Officialy, the newly united Germany renounces any territorial claims outside of its post-WWII boundaries, but asserts continued interest in the welfare of ethnic Germans living outside of Germany. Membership in German ethnic organizations in western Poland grows, particularly in Silesia. By the end of the year, following that of Czechoslovakia, soviet troop withdrawals are under way from Germany, Poland and Hungary. This initiates the major reorganization of the Red Army as it is confirmed that many acitive units will be turned into armament storage base.

As this happens, major talks on arms control are conducted between NATO and the Warsaw Pact. Two treaties are signed reducing the production of chemical weapons (The Chemical Weapon Accord signed on June 1) and limiting the number of military units in Europe (Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe signed on November 22). This strengthen the political position of Lukyanov and releases part of the tensions that had grown over the past years. Meanwhile, in Western Europe, the only major events take place in UK where the governement faces unrest and violent opposition to the poll tax. This intended tax system is abandonned after the fall of Margret Thatcher which resigns from office in November. Meanwhile, it has to be noted that the IRA had launched an increasing number of attacks toward Britain.

In the Middle-East, the year begins with the Yemen Arab Republic and the People's Democratic Republic of Yemen unifying and becoming the Republic of Yemen. Later, Iraq stuns the West by invading Kuwait in August. To most surprise, the Soviet Union joins efforts with the USA as the world rallies behind US leadership in resisting Iraqi aggression. Troops from three dozen countries, including USSR and others still formally members of the Warsaw Pact, pour into Saudi Arabia. Then, while the world is occupied with Iraq, Syria achieves victory over Aoun and takes control of Lebanon.

Elsewhere in the world, a few significant events take place. The Indian withwrawal from Sri Lanka open the gates to a revival of the Civil War and violence increase again. A coalition of opposition parties headed by Violetta Chamorro is defeated by Daniel Ortega's bid for re-election in Nicaragua. Sandinistas are strongly reinforced by this result and the Contras are forced back into insurgency. Finally, In Africa, F.W. de Klerk legalise the ANC and frees Nelson Mandela, starting a process intended to end the Apartheid. Two meetings between the government and the ANC took place and both were successful in laying down the preconditions for negotiations despite the considerable tensions still abounding within the country.

[Mohoender]

In January, the Gulf Coalition begins a stunning aerial offensive against Iraq and follows it up with a blitzkrieg ground war in February which liberates Kuwait and crushes the flower of the Iraqi Army. Although Saddam remains in power, his authority is reduced to the central third of his nation and his military is no longer capable of aggression against neighboring states. With the slow return of prosperity but still in need to strengthen Soviet rule, Lukyanov refuses to order a military intervention to stop the Republic’s drive toward independence. On the Baltic Sea, Soviet forces remain at the borders while Estonia and Latvia join with Lithuania voting for independence in August. There move had been preceded by that of Georgia which declared it as early as April while ethnic and religious violence in the Caucasus escalates. Continuing tensions become particularly heavy between Armenians and Azeris in the enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh. Meanwhile, on July 1, the old Warsaw Pact is formally abolished, the last straw for many Moscow hardliners who are now planning to seize power in a move that should take place on August 19.

However, Lukyanov has been informed of the conspiracy and, on August 17, orders KGB General Viktor Karpukhin to conduct several arrests, foiling the coup. Then, three days later, on August 20, the New Union Treaty is signed between the Russian SFSR and 7 Republics (Byelorussian SSR, Kazakh SSR, Azerbaijan SSR, Uzbek SSR, Kyrgyz SSR, Turkmen SSR, and Tajik SSR). It grants more power to the republics and changes the country’s name into “Union of Soviet Sovereign States” while Anatoly Lukyanov pursues his rise to power. On August 22, he is elected chairman of the Supreme Soviet of USSR in place of Ligachev and his first decision is to establish a new government and to appoint Gennady Zyuganov to head the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic. A new government is established with Ivan Silayev as Prime Minister: Viktor Karpukhin (KGB), Alexander Rutskoy (Internal Affairs), Ruslan Khasbulatov (Foreign Affairs), General Alexander Lebed (Defense), Konstantin Kobets (Communications), Alexander Tizyakov (Finance), Vladimir Ivashko (Justice) and Vasily Starodubtsev (Agriculture and Food). Despite this obvious success, the governments of Armenia, Georgia, Moldova, Ukraine and the Baltic States (Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia) still refuse to join.

Their choice is a serious blow that convinces Lukyanov of the urgent need to pursue a deep structure reorganization. More space launch are performed, allowing for the GLONASS system to become fully operational. More army units are reduced into armament storage bases while their personnels are progressively sent to civilian jobs. However, new equipments continue to be fielded while military programs are confirmed. The KGB undergoes a serious reform intended at making it a more versatile tool. The START I treaty is signed on July 1, pursuing the move toward further detente with the West. On the next day, G.W. Bush and Anatoly Lukyanov make a common speech in which they announce that both countries intend to pursue more talks on arms reduction. They conclude by stating that the Cold War is now over. On that same day, army units are mobilized all over the Soviet Union to take over the transportation of much needed supplies to the cities (food shortages effectively end by late December).

This, however, is not its only action on the international scene and a few more steps are taken toward a Sino-Soviet reconciliation. In May, the Sino-Russian Border Agreement is signed at Beijing, definitely ending border disputes between the two countries. In addition, a limited but real collaboration is established in which USSR ensure China of its support in the development of certain technologies while the PRC agrees to increase exports of consumption goods.

As these changes are taking place in USSR, the dissolution of Yugoslavia accelerates when both Croatia and Slovenia secede in June, followed in short order by Macedonia. Except in that last province, violence soon brakes out between the Serbian dominated federal government and militias of the breakaway states. After the Ten-day War, peace is restored in Slovenia while fightings continue over Croatia. By the end of 1991, most of Croatia is gravely affected by war and it is facing increasing difficulties when it appears that Moscow doesn’t respect the UN embargo and sends large amounts of military supplies through Beograd.

In the West, relief had been expressed when the Warsaw Pact dissolved and when the Cold War was declared over. However, concerns are again expressed when further proofs of the Soviet implication in Yugoslavia are released. Still some countries already reduced military spending as early as 1988 and the movement toward peace continues. More military units are disolved and older equipments are effectively taken out of service. Weapon development is slowing down and equipements that could have gone into production are now cancelled or delayed.

[Mohoender]

With the change in Moscow, history in Eastern Europe takes a slightly different path. Elections in Albania effectively brings a pro-western government to power but these held in Bulgaria confirms the Communists to office. Then, on May 7, Bulgarian leaders meet with representatives from the “Union of Soviet Sovereign Republics” at Tashkent and establish the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO). It comes into existense in the mist of the Crimean Crisis that started on May 5 when Crimea, declaring independence from Ukraine, asked for support. On May 9, Moscow answer the call and Russian units move across the Kerch Strait. Ten days later, on May 19, Crimea joins the U.S.S.R. Ukraine, faced with a growing economic crisis (resulting from loose monetary policies) and with its army in the middle of a deep reorganization, is unable to take any real action. A month later, when the South Ossetia War ends and as the War in Abkhazia begins Moscow pushes its advantage again and recognizes the independence of these two regions. Before years end, Abkhazia and South Ossetia are merged with USSR again..

Following these events, President Lukyanov declares publicly that the USSR refuses to assume any longer the former Soviet debt, stating that it grew as a result of the insane policy conducted by Gorbachev. This decision slightly hampers Lukyanov’s efforts but, after two years of recession, Russian industrial output and GDP slowly improve again allowing for the Kremlin to expend the aid it grants to foreign powers, further tipping the balance in various areas. Najibullah’s regime of Afghanistan finally inflicts a number of decisive defeats to the Mujahideen and regain control over a majority of the country. Mongolia experiences a fast recovery under the communist party and, before year’s end, Ulan Bator is a member of the CSTO. The Sandinistas of Nicaragua are now pushing their advantage toward an increasingly weakened Contras which has lost all US support. Cuba accelerate its forces modernization. In Venezuela, the February 1992 coup, led by Hugo Chávez, overthrows President Carlos Andrés Pérez. Military units seize a number of large cities (Valencia, Maracaibo and Maracay) while other troops take position in Caracas and intercept Pérez as the President is returning from an overseas trip. Pérez is taken into custody and Chavez broadcast a tape calling for general uprising. Following it, everywhere in the country, crowds demonstrate in favor of the coup and, in a matter of 24 hours, most of the army rally behind the Putchists. In March, Hugo Chavez is elected President with a large majority but, implementing a policy inspired by socialism, he is soon pointed out as a threat to democracy by US officials. Quickly, the new regime places hope into USSR for political and military support.

In the Balkan region, Bosnia demands that Yugoslavian federal troops withdraw from the province, a request which the Serbian-dominated central government refuses. In addition, minor, non violent, incidents take place in southern Albania between the Greek population, Albanians and Albanian authorities. Toward mid-year, the Serbs are besieging Sarajevo and what is known as the Yugoslavian War enters a new stage. Soon after, the UN gets involved in Bosnia-Herzegovina when the security council approves Resolution 743 to send a UNPROFOR peacekeeping force to Yugoslavia. However, later in the year, USSR refuses an extension of this force mandate.

As these new tensions rise, the Politburo generates more efforts to bring the Soviet Naval Forces to their planned strength. Work on the “Varyag” has ceased and two Slava-class cruisers remain the last capital ships under construction. Neverhteless, the four Kiev-class Carrier-cruisers are transferred to the Sevmash shipyard in Severodvinsk (Arkhangelsk Oblast) where they should be refitted. Still more Sovremennyy-class and Udaloy-class destroyers are laid down while designs of new frigates are coming out of the drawing boards. Discussions also begin on a new START treaty that is aimed at banning the use of MIRV and the historic agreement is reached on June 17 with the singing of a “Joint Agreement” by Bush and Lukyanov.

In Western Europe, the Maastricht treaty is signed, founding the European Union. Then, by mid-year, Slovakian separatists have gained enough seats in parliamentary elections to force the division of the country into two sovereign states: Slovakia and the Czech Republic. Meanwhile, ETA in Spain and IRA in Northern Ireland, adopt a more radical path and the number of attacks increase. In Italy, investigations are carried out on Democrazia Cristiana and uncover endemic corruption practices at the highest level. This is starting a series of scandals that quickly undermine the Italian leading party. Meanwhile, in the Middle-East the situation remain tense as Iraq continues to deny access to the UN inspection teams to several of its military complexes. In addition, the Kurds are becoming increasingly active in both Iraq and Turkey, their guerrillas often seeking sanctuary in the UN protected northern third of Iraq when needed.

As it occurs, in the United States, G.W. Bush looses the presidential elections to Bill Clinton. The situation has evolved, the economy is in a recession and Bush's perceived greatest strength, foreign policy, is regarded as much less important following the signing of the various arms control treaties, the continuing commercial opening of the Soviet Union and the defeat of Iraq in the Gulf War. Nevertheless, before the end of his mandate, George H.W. Bush achieves further successes by signing the START II treaty with Lukyanov on January 3, 1993 while getting the UN security council to approve resolution 794 concerning Somalia. As a result, UN peacekeapers led by the US form the UNITAF and, on december 4, US military forces land in Somalia.