Would France sit out the War?

[dragoon500ly]

Source is "Armies of NATO's Central Front"

"France is a special case, while she remains a member of the NATO alliance, her forces are not part of any NATO integrated military structure, nor are they under NATO control. France goes even further than Norway and Denmark, which do not permit foreign forces to be stationed on their soil during peacetime, by also ruling out NATO exercise and having only limited participation in NATO commands, activity and decision making.

France believes that the independence it seeks in its foreign policy is incompatible with integration into NATO defense planning. Yet, just about all of the decision-makers in the mainstream of French political life realize that the country is totally committed to the West, and the realities of modern geopolitics have forced France to act in concert with her NATO allies in assuring European security. While France retains the right not to participate with NATO forces in a future conflict, plans exist for such participation should it be seen as necessary."

Now, while admiting that GDW had a wonderful plot point, given the world situation in the early 1990s, would France have really sit out a general war?

[Olefin]

I could see them sitting out a conventional war as long as France herself wasnt touched. But GDW stretched the timeline to the point of breaking as believeable when they had France take several hits from Russian nukes on their refineries and oil production capability and they still sat out the war.

I cant see any French government surviving taking several hits from nukes and just sitting it out - you would have a military coup within weeks if not days.

At the very least you would have had some French units say the heck with this and go over to NATO so they could strike back. Now not saying division size units but possibly up to regimental sized units especially those in areas where defection would be easier - i.e. its one thing to march from Brittany to Germany against orders and get away with it, totally another to be on Rhineland occupation duty and defect to NATO or be in the Middle East and take on the Russians.

Add in at least some of their Air Force and Navy as well - unless they ground their whole air force its impossible to stop pilots from going to burner and getting into German air space to join the fight. Same with the navy - especially if the officers are in on it.

This applies to the Belgians as well. A more realistic timeilne would have had either an attempted coup that failed or several "rebel" units that joined NATO from both France and Belguim - especially as the French military having a large vocal minority wanting to take France into the war is mentioned very prominently in Survivors Guide to the UK.

[raketenjagdpanzer]

Originally Posted by Olefin

This applies to the Belgians as well. A more realistic timeilne would have had either an attempted coup that failed or several "rebel" units that joined NATO from both France and Belguim - especially as the French military having a large vocal minority wanting to take France into the war is mentioned very prominently in Survivors Guide to the UK.

My T2k universe has an extant Belgian "rump state" that's wedged between "Free Belgium" (the death zone that France rules) and Germany. They took some hard hits but are more-or-less intact, and are very receptive to US mercenaries in their own army after Omega, having been close NATO allies.

[James Langham]

Who said all the nukes were Soviet? Unlikely to be US but who is likely to be able to tell if sub-launched (I know they could identify the origin of the plutonium but this could be misleading in itself).

Logically would France have gained anything from siding with NATO? With the Pact held in Germany, they gain little by joining in and risk a lot.

France COULD even flirt with the idea of joining the Pact with it's long socialist history. There is great opportunity for a power politics based game with the players playing senior French politicians, military officers and civil servants. There are hints of this in the UK Sourcebook.

[Raellus]

Of all of the alternative history elements in the T2K v1.0 (the only timeline, AFAIC), I find the French position to be the most believable. IRL, France always stayed on the periphery of NATO, preferring to retain as much political/military autonomy as possible, and playing a sort of double game pitting the west versus the east, while simultaneously flirting with both. Since WWII, France has put its own self interest above that of any alliance, and the T2K creators simply continued this policy to a logical conclusion.

In T2K, France benefits much more by staying out of the war than it likely would have by jumping in on NATO's side.

There's historical precedence for this. France didn't attack Germany when it invaded Poland in 1939, despite a standing alliance with the Poles. Despite having one of the largest militaries in Europe at the time, France quite simply did not want another war with Germany. It talked tough, but when it came to backing it up, France took the path of least resistance. I can see this repeating in 1996-'97, when its nominal ally, Germany, invaded Poland. First, German reunification would likely have dredged up old fears of a powerful German neighbor, and if the French goverment at the time was left-leaning, perhaps pros-socialist sympathies as well. Second, by practicing restraint after being nuked a couple of times, France avoids getting nuked a whole lot more. Its opportunism also results in territorial gains in the Benelux countries. And by playing a long-game, France becomes a global power (in the 2300 timeline

It's a winning foreign policy, both in the short term and in the long-run. It makes a lot of sense, both historically, and in terms of realpolitik.

[raketenjagdpanzer]

There's a story, probably apocryphal, that when de Gaulle told Macnamara that he planned to withdraw militarily from NATO and wanted all US troops removed from French soil the response was "Does that mean the ones we buried at Normandy, too, you son of a bitch?"

[stg58fal]

Originally Posted by James Langham

France COULD even flirt with the idea of joining the Pact

So since they dont actually get invaded, they skip "surrender" and go directly to "collaborate", eh?

[Badbru]

Originally Posted by Olefin

I could see them sitting out a conventional war as long as France herself wasnt touched. But GDW stretched the timeline to the point of breaking as believeable when they had France take several hits from Russian nukes on their refineries and oil production capability and they still sat out the war.

I still think it's believable. France stayed out initially as they were opposed to renewed German aggression towards Poland. Germany invades in both timelines don't they? The French remember WW2. Once they make that initial decision they kinda politically need to stick to it.
Several hits from Russian nukes you say? Are you sure, are they sure?
The French will want to be certain of the aggressor before doing the one thing that will guarantee more nukes arriving on their doorstep, or have you not considered the Soviet response if France had have joined Nato Forces immediatly after their first home strike. What satelites there were in 95 are gone by 97. Radar might track bombers and ICBM's comming from Russian territory but a Sub launch, hmmn could be a few nations capable of that.

I cant see any French government surviving taking several hits from nukes and just sitting it out - you would have a military coup within weeks if not days.

The French military is pretty busy in La Zone Morte by this stage and they've allready followed their political masters in an invasion of Belgium and Germany
so, now you see them as seditious and willing to attempt a coup?

At the very least you would have had some French units say the heck with this and go over to NATO so they could strike back. Now not saying division size units but possibly up to regimental sized units especially those in areas where defection would be easier - i.e. its one thing to march from Brittany to Germany against orders and get away with it, totally another to be on Rhineland occupation duty and defect to NATO or be in the Middle East and take on the Russians.

Add in at least some of their Air Force and Navy as well - unless they ground their whole air force its impossible to stop pilots from going to burner and getting into German air space to join the fight. Same with the navy - especially if the officers are in on it.

This applies to the Belgians as well. A more realistic timeilne would have had either an attempted coup that failed or several "rebel" units that joined NATO from both France and Belguim - especially as the French military having a large vocal minority wanting to take France into the war is mentioned very prominently in Survivors Guide to the UK.

By your own resoning as to why you couldn't, wouldn't and didn't swallow whole the desertions of US Forces after returning from Omega, or in Texas, it's desertion in a time of war, "They get shot". So you're happy to have French military personel be deserters, side switchers, perhaps even labelled traitors, but it's inconcievable for US personel? Ok

[boogiedowndonovan]

Originally Posted by Olefin

This applies to the Belgians as well. A more realistic timeilne would have had either an attempted coup that failed or several "rebel" units that joined NATO from both France and Belguim - especially as the French military having a large vocal minority wanting to take France into the war is mentioned very prominently in Survivors Guide to the UK.

I'm a broken record when it comes to the T2k Belgium.

Consider the demographics of Belgium, over 50% speak a variant of Dutch (Flemish), a significant minority 40% speak French (Walloons) and a smaller minority speaks German. All three are official languages of Belgium. So I don't think the whole nation would automatically side with the French. Most of the Dutch speakers are in the north of the country, most of the French speakers are in the south, the German speakers are also in the south along the border with Germany. Ironically, the capitol, Brussels is mostly French speaking but within the Dutch speaking Flanders area.

In my campaign, Belgium honors its NATO commitments, 1st Paracommando Rgt goes to Norway, Belgian I Corps which has forward units stationed in West Germany mobilizes, possibly when the nukes hit and France pushes through Belgium to establish La Zone Morte , the Belgian armed forces disintegrate as Dutch and French speakers head home.

There may be small Belgian units and individuals who've attached themselves to NATO units and are still fighting in Norway or Central Europe. Or even Belgian military personnel stranded in the US, UK or Canada.

I think a question that should be considered is whether French speaking Belgians consider themselves more "Belgian" or more "French". I would assume that although a good minority of Belgians speak non-Dutch langauges, there is still national sentiment amongst them. I'm not doubting that some French speaking Belgians (and even some Dutch and German speakers) would side with the French, but I can't see the entire nation siding with them.

Another assumption that I have is that the GDW staff didn't even know that most Belgians speak Dutch or that the Belgian military is divided into Dutch and French speaking units.

perhaps once I get off my lazy ass, I will write an article for the T2k gazette about this.

Back on topic, as for the French, I do like the idea of French volunteers supporting and serving with NATO units.