Latin America in the Twilight War (T2K v1.0)

[Raellus]

I didn't want to thread-jack so here's one for discussing the "Mexican Front" in the v1.0 Twilight War.

Yes, it's incredibly unlikely that Mexico could mount any kind of effective strategic offensive against the United States.

However, I don't think that logistics would be much of an issue.

Mexico maintains a massive fleet of sixteen wheelers that regularly traverse the border. Mobilizing this civilian fleet would provide the Mexican army with a massive lift capability and help supply their spearhead.

Second, Mexico has it's own petroleum supply and could fuel their vehicles with gasoline/diesel long after that capability was severely curtailed for the U.S. military.

Hundreds of thousands of Mexican civilians infiltrate the border every year. As a prelude to a conventional assault across the border, I can envision teams of Mexican army "commandos" doing the same to launch attacks on military installations, power plants, and other strategic targets to disrupt a coherent U.S. response.

As for landing Division Cuba in the U.S., well, I find that a lot harder to justify.

[Raellus]

One more thing about infiltrators preceding the coup-de-main, if caught (and some of the teams assuredly would be), they could very believably claim to be drug or human smugglers. I'm sure some U.S. spies, Mexican diplomats or gov. officials in the know would spill the beans, but I can see them being brushed off by a preoccupied U.S. gov.

[chico20854]

We've pretty much come up with the same ideas, Rae.

The Mexican invasion is really helped along by the massive number of illegals already in the U.S. (There was an additional flood after the nuclear exchange - I could imagine that the Mexican oil industry would be some of of the "major industrial and oil centers in neutral nations, to prevent their possible use by the other side" hit during the exchange). JCS, within days of the first Mexican units crossing the border, nukes Mexico City and the state of Mexico falls apart. The invasion continues, however, for several reasons. First, there is little organized opposition capable of stopping a regular military force - county sheriffs, border patrol offices, patriotic vets with a mishmash of small arms, the remnants of State Guards already stretched to the breaking point dealing with evacuees and an ongoing nuclear exchange, Army training units composed of crippled, service support instructors and raw recruits. Second, the American rear area is already infiltrated by Mexican Army sympathizers (biker and criminal gangs plus tens of thousands of disgruntled refugees), who act as a fifth column and in some areas effectively become the Mexican army. Third, the nuking of Mexico means that there is nothing left for the Mexican Army to retreat to. Continued advance means more rich territory to live off of/loot, retreat means having to scrape out an existence in a place worse than what was retreated from.

One example we have talked about is the Battle of San Diego. The Navy base puts up somewhat of a fight, but the sailors there aren't infantrymen and in many cases are unarmed. The USMC Recruit Depot in town doesn't have much ammunition on post and no heavy weapons - all the ranges are located north of town on Camp Pendelton. The Americans fight hard, but the issue is never really in doubt, especially after the convoy carrying ammo south into town is halted by a roadblock on I-5 and torn apart by hundreds of Mexican gangsters (at great cost).

Logistically, the issue the Mexican army faces is more fundamental than trucks (although that partially is how we answered the question of how the invasion is supported more than 20 miles over the border). Once the nukes (both Soviet and American) hit Mexico, there is NO logistical support coming north. They have to live off the land, which isn't such a stretch for them to do given the area of operations (lots of truck stops for parts, tons of pickups to replace broken down jeeps, small arms that accept common civilian calibers).

In the environment of chaos in the US following the exchange and invasion, I could see Division Cuba's intervention. (And as for where they get the lift - well, there's tons of Pact merchantmen sheltering in Cuban ports, unable to make it back to the USSR, just as others sheltered in Cam Ranh at the outbreak of war).

In the next week or so I'll put up the piece about VII Corps in Texas, which has some more details about how the Mexican invasion pans out.

[Graebarde]

Originally Posted by chico20854

In the next week or so I'll put up the piece about VII Corps in Texas, which has some more details about how the Mexican invasion pans out.

Excellent as always, but suggest ahead of time you not use VII Corps in Texas, since it was in Germany with 7th Army, unless you left off an I or X somewhere

[chico20854]

VII Corps returns to Texas from Europe as part of Operation Omega. See the second to last update of the US Recovery plan...

No more Division Cuba!

[Graebarde]

Originally Posted by chico20854

VII Corps returns to Texas from Europe as part of Operation Omega. See the second to last update of the US Recovery plan...

No more Division Cuba!

Ahhhhhhhh so you're talking post 2000 rather than the invasion which took place in (what year was it? '98? )

[Raellus]

Sounds good, Chico. The Mexican army is trapped, directionless (in a traditional strategic military sense), and forced to live off the land in the SW U.S. The Southwest is starting to look more and more like central Poland! I like!

Originally Posted by chico20854

In the environment of chaos in the US following the exchange and invasion, I could see Division Cuba's intervention. (And as for where they get the lift - well, there's tons of Pact merchantmen sheltering in Cuban ports, unable to make it back to the USSR, just as others sheltered in Cam Ranh at the outbreak of war).

The shipping is available but couldn't just a single, old, Sturgeon class SSN sink it all, though? The PACT shipping wouldn't have much in the way of ASW escorts. I may be underestimating them but I don't think that Cuba has much capability in that realm.

[chico20854]

Originally Posted by Raellus

The shipping is available but couldn't just a single, old, Sturgeon class SSN sink it all, though? The PACT shipping wouldn't have much in the way of ASW escorts. I may be underestimating them but I don't think that Cuba has much capability in that realm.

Yes, a single old Sturgeon could rip the invasion fleet apart. If the USN knew it was coming. And if the USN had a Sturgeon within range. A Sturgeon carries up to 19 torpedoes, so if they send 20 ships at least one will get through! It's just over a 3 day voyage at 15 knots from Cienfuegos to Tampico.

But given that in the spring of 1998 the US is in "strategic shock", with lines in Europe and Iran pretty static as everything gets sorted out, I would see the remaining USN submarine force being oriented towards boomers - hunting down Soviet boomers and riding shotgun (most likely in a "zone defense") for American boats. I can't see maintaining a patrol of the Caribbean as a high priority for the remnants of the US SSN force. I'd say that interdiction by maritime patrol aircraft (US Coast Guard Falcons or C-130s; the Navy's P-3s are in deep water) would be most likely, but the limited strike aircraft are tied down supporting the battle ashore. My gut feeling is that the Soviet transport fleet makes it through undiscovered due to the chaos in the US following the exchange. That failure burns the USN deeply, so much that they assign LA-class boats to patrol the entrances to the Caribbean on an occasional basis, leading to the torpedoing of the Bulgarian A.B. Buzko by the Corpus Christi (yes, that's what's written in Gateway to the Spanish Main!) on November 1, 2000 off Grenada.

[fightingflamingo]

Any thoughts on the Panama Canal?

[Matt Wiser]

Personally, I never found Mexican participation realistic. Besides, it was the Soviets that nuked Mexico's oil refining infrastructure to deny it to the U.S., so why would the Mexicans, even with a leftist coaliton government in Mexico City, join the war on the Soviet side? Someone at GDW had to be either on something or have had a brain fart. Back on the old RPG host forum, I showed a conversation between General Cummings, the deputy JCS Chairman, and the acting CINC-SAC, with Cummings saying that the border situation is drastic, and with no forces available to stop the invasion, drastic measures are necessary. The deputy points out that history may not judge Cummings' decision favorably, and he replies, "Let the historians a hundred years from now have that debate. Right here and now, there's a foreign army crossing our border and we can't stop them conventionally. We have no choice." He then turns to the acting CINC-SAC and says "You have your orders, General. Carry them out." And the acting CINC says, "Yes, sir." A couple hours later, two B-1s and a B-52 strike Monterey, Hermosilo, Chiuhihua City, and Tampico,with B-61 gravity bombs (average yield 100 KT) while a Trident SSBN strikes Guadalajara and Mexico City with 8x 475 KT weapons each (two Trident-II D-5 missiles).

Invasion splutters to a halt when the Mexican commanders see "instant sunshine in their rear view mirrors, and the various Mexican units either turn and go home, turn warlord/marauder, or disintegrate. The CO of Division Cuba asks the CG of US 90th Corps for asylum.