Israelis and Palestinians in the Twilight War

[John Farson]

Going by canon in the various versions, it seems that Israel survives the war pretty much intact (except for possibly a nuke strike on Ashdod, as one of the members' own timelines had).

If we go by the assumption that 95%+ of Egypt is killed when the Aswan Dam gets nuked, then that leaves Israel (and the Palestinians) more or less alone in a tough neighborhood. In the SW is a destroyed Egypt, a nuked Suez Canal (if we go with the assumption that the Russians nuked it to deny NATO) and a Sinai that's become a lawless wasteland and likely teeming with refugees trying to get to Israel. In the north is Lebanon and Syria, and in the east is Jordan, each of the three experiencing various degrees of unrest, warfare and possible nuclear strikes. And remember, at this time Israel would still be occupying Southern Lebanon.

So in the midst of all the chaos, what happens to the Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank? Does Israel make some kind of truce with the PLO, Hamas and other organizations and shield the areas and their inhabitants from the surrounding chaos, kind of like in World War Z? Are the Palestinians reduced to a serf-like existence, bowing and scraping to the Israelis in exchange for IDF military protection? Or does it get darker, with the Israelis enacting their own "Trail of Tears", expelling all the Palestinians to the Sinai, Lebanon, Syria and Jordan. Or - god forbid - genocide?!

Note: I understand the whole Israel-Palestine question is a touchy one on the net in general, and I'm certainly not advocating ethnic cleansing and/or genocide, just to let everyone know.

[headquarters]

Whatever your thoughts - keep it civil or just keep it to yourself if You Cannot. Try to remember that divisions run deep on this matter.

[WallShadow]

If you hold to the thought that 2300AD is the true descendant timeline following the Twilight War, then Israel, Palestine, Jordan, and Lebanon eventually bond together forming a 4-in-one nation-state, where each subdivision has a mutual coexistance. A less-darker fate than some mentioned above.

[Panther Al]

What I could see happening would be Jordan bowing to the reality of the situation (And bearing in mind Jordan is one of the few Arab states that sorta gets along with Israel for realpolitik reasons) and working with Israel to maintain some sense of normality - if for no other reason that to keep some access to the med.

Though normality by the regions standards.

I think that the Israeli government would want to keep things calm in the west bank, gaza, and southern lebanon. Its cheaper, and preserves resources. However: And this is a biiiiig but here: If the PLO, or any of the other governmental or terrorist organisation gets froggy, I don't see the IDF holding *anything* back in putting the threat down. In the midst of WW3, they know they don't have the time nor resources to put up with a long slow insurgency operations. It would be cheaper, in the long run, to go in very heavy, very fast, and very violent to put a very permanent end to it.

After all, when all the other powers are busy nuking each others cities, they can't wring their hands and bemoan anything Israel does. If they even bother noticing.

[Adm.Lee]

There's also the possibility that the various local powers see that the Big One is going on, and realize that no one is going to be selling them all the arms they would need to fight out their own war. The USSR, USA, and others won't be sending freighters full of tanks or aircraft parts when they need more than they can produce for themselves.

I'm certain some fighting would happen, but nothing on a big scale.

[Legbreaker]

With the rest of the world experiencing their own rather catastrophic situations, attention, and therefore any outside forces of restraint, will virtually disappear. The West Bank and Gaza would be depopulated, with the people expelled over the nearest border without regard for what they may face (desert, radiation, bandits, etc) - leaving these areas alone would mean tying up military resources just to keep the status quo, all while the occupants build strength and continue launching rockets, sabotage, etc, etc, etc.

It wouldn't be pretty, but without the world media paying attention, it will be fairly quick - I estimate as little as a few months if the Israeli's go all out and their neighbours are unable to do anything about it.

300 years later(a DAMN long time) in 2300, all may well be forgiven, or perhaps there's simmering unrest and hatred just below the surface? For examples look at relations between nations today and what they were back in 1700. France and Britain. Britain and Spain.
Or how about Japan and the USA just 50 years after WWII.

[HorseSoldier]

Keep in mind that in the T2K timeline, per RDF Sourcebook, the Israelis and Palestinians had reached some sort of rapprochement -- short version being that there was no 90's Intifada, and instead a brokered peace agreement, if I recall correctly.

Arab-Israeli tensions are low enough that the IDF has a small expeditionary force attached to CENTCOM per RDF SB also so that is a pretty big declaration that the T2K Arab Street is way, way different than our timeline.

What I could see happening would be Jordan bowing to the reality of the situation (And bearing in mind Jordan is one of the few Arab states that sorta gets along with Israel for realpolitik reasons) and working with Israel to maintain some sense of normality - if for no other reason that to keep some access to the med.

With Israel and Jordan apparently pretty intact and with IDF troops deployed to the east with CENTCOM, I think the two would also be working together to ensure they're getting their cut of the Middle Eastern oil coming out of the Gulf States -- Israel bringing it in via Jordan would be likely in a world where tankers and shipping in general are tight resources.