Proud Prophet? Was this the death knell of US planning for Limited Nuclear War?

[Jason Weiser]

Hey guys,
Just found out about this little CPX DoD ran at National Defense University in 1983. Around the same time of Able Archer...(what this says about the times is another issue)

Here is the heavily, and I mean heavily redacted AAR:
http://www.dod.mil/pubs/foi/specialC.../12-M-1487.pdf


And here is an article discussing the CPX in a modern context....
http://nationalinterest.org/feature/...lear-war-12209

In short? Was Twilight 2000 as a concept even possible considering the results of the CPX?

[kato13]

Originally Posted by Jason Weiser

Here is the heavily, and I mean heavily redacted AAR:

The next time there is a major document release remind me to invest in Sharpie Marker stock.

Thanks for the post. What parts I could read were interesting.

[swaghauler]

An interesting (if limited) read.
I know now (after getting some really close looks at Soviet vehicles and equipment) that the Russians were really optimistic about their own performance in battle. We were so far ahead of them by the early 90's that the contest would have been as "one sided" as the Gulf War was.

Where we had (and I believe still do have) a major problem was in Stockpiled Logistics. I remember the Army having to buy 2.75" free-flight rockets from the Air Force in the First Gulf War. They had shot up their entire stockpile in just a month.
When I joined the Artillery, we were shooting ammo made in the 1960's. By the time Restore Hope had rolled around, we were shooting new manufacture ammo. The Army had shot up a 30 Year stockpile of 6" howitzer shells in just a couple of years.
Think of the implications for a Twilight 2000 campaign. You may have a heavy weapon, but what about its ammo. I think Twilight's ammo availability ratings "overrate" how much ammo will be available after the nukes fall.

[Schone23666]

We're still only talking nukes, though. What about all the nightmarish concoctions that were coming out of the Soviet's Biopreparat program? Ken Alibekov in his book "Biohazard" details how the Soviets asked him what would be needed to arm ICBM's with biological warfare agents.

Though granted once the ICBM's start flying, all bets are off.

[swaghauler]

Originally Posted by Schone23666

We're still only talking nukes, though. What about all the nightmarish concoctions that were coming out of the Soviet's Biopreparat program? Ken Alibekov in his book "Biohazard" details how the Soviets asked him what would be needed to arm ICBM's with biological warfare agents.

Though granted once the ICBM's start flying, all bets are off.

A good way to "distract" a potential adversary would be to place nonweaponized viruses in their area of control in order to cause political and economic distress BEFORE you go on the offensive. It could cost north of $100K per patient for containment and treatment of something like the Plague. If the virus is not "weaponized," there would be no "fingerprint" to place blame.
A very effective (and evil) method of reducing your adversary's logistical base.

[Schone23666]

Originally Posted by swaghauler

A good way to "distract" a potential adversary would be to place nonweaponized viruses in their area of control in order to cause political and economic distress BEFORE you go on the offensive. It could cost north of $100K per patient for containment and treatment of something like the Plague. If the virus is not "weaponized," there would be no "fingerprint" to place blame.
A very effective (and evil) method of reducing your adversary's logistical base.

What scares me is the very real possibility that someone out there may already have a similar plan already in place.

[Silent Hunter UK]

Originally Posted by kato13

The next time there is a major document release remind me to invest in Sharpie Marker stock.

Thanks for the post. What parts I could read were interesting.

And I thought the CIA torture report was heavily redacted...