Venezuela in TW 2000

[rcaf_777]

Some thoughts

The Revolutionary Bolivarian Movement-200's first coup attempt took place on February 4, 1992, and was led by Hugo Chávez. A second coup attempt on November 27, 1992

In 1998 Hugo Chavez is elected President

He described himself as a Marxist

Possible Soviet Ally in the War? or dose the US overthrow him?

[Legbreaker]

Originally Posted by rcaf_777

Some thoughts

The Revolutionary Bolivarian Movement-200's first coup attempt took place on February 4, 1992, and was led by Hugo Chávez. A second coup attempt on November 27, 1992

In 1998 Hugo Chavez is elected President

He described himself as a Marxist

Possible Soviet Ally in the War? or dose the US overthrow him?

With the world in chaos, why would the 1998 election necessarily go ahead as it did IRL?
What's to say the government didn't clamp down hard on any opposition and institute ongoing, long term and effective martial law?

T2K is a game based on an alternate history (originally future history). Why is there such a need from some parts to rewrite everything to fit the real world?

[raketenjagdpanzer]

IMC the chavezistas never got traction; the Soviets going full "nuke the shit out of everything" kept a right-wing Junta in charge in Venezuela and in exchange for whatever hard currency (ie gold) both MilGov and CivGov can come up with they'll sell oil to whomever. They're pretty important in T2k...

[kalos72]

South/Central America have always been very interesting to me. I love some of the ideas the Spanish Main module gave.

But I could never come up with an outline for the regional situation....

[rcaf_777]

Why not have the 1992 coup succeeded and Hugo become a Soviet ally it makes Cuba stronger and might give you some interesting encounters

[Olefin]

I don't see the US standing by and letting Venezuela go Marxist in a 1st edition world for sure - but there is a good chance that given the continuing US-Soviet confrontation of the 1st edition that Chavez may have never been let go from prison

In a second edition timeline you could see Chavez being released and forming his political party as happened in our timeline

However in both timelines Venezuela gets nuked in late 1997 as part of the attacks against oil production - after that the country would probably rapidly fall apart into a vicious fight over what was left

given the locations of the refineries and other infrastructure in the country Caracas probably would not be hit by nukes - but you could see that city rapidly fall apart as panic would hit the country after so many of its cities would be hit by nukes going after their refineries

and remember it depends on when the Soviets hit the refineries - were they hit by conventional weapons, Spetsnaz or Soviet supported guerillas before the war went nuclear or after the TDM when it was time to make refineries glow?

About the only one that might still be standing would be the San Roque refinery as it specializes in paraffin production and its production rates are very small

[unkated]

This what I have from a Caribbean Sourcebook I have been working on:

Venezuela


Description

In the last half of the 20th century, Venezuela's economic well-being fluctuated with the unstable demand for its primary export commodity, oil. Oil accounts for three-quarters of Venezuela's exports, half of its government's fiscal income, and a quarter of the nation's GDP. The 1970s were a particular boom period (due to the 1973 and 1978 oil crises in the US), but economic conditions worsened through the 1980s.

(History through the 1980s matches RL)

History

1989 – Perez is elected on an anti-neoliberal platform, but due to economic crises, is forced to counter that – minimizing stipends to the unemployed, raising the price of fuel locally, which in Caracas was immediately passed on as a price rise for public transportation – causing a week of riots.

1992 – Feb: Leftist coup attempt (includes Victor Chavez) against Perez. Chavez appears on TV for 1 minute, apologizing for the lives lost, but vows to return. Then goes to prison unti 1994. Perez survives another coup attempt in Nov.

1993 – Perez impeached for spending $17 million illegally to support the election of Violetta Chamorro in Nicaraqua. Raphael Caldera, campaigning on an anti-neoliberal platform, is elected in December with 30% of the vote to his nearest rival's 23%.

1994 - As one of his election promises, Caldera released Chávez and other army dissidents in March.

1996 – Caldera reverses himself on economic policy, adopting IMF programs in 1996 and 1997 that stipulated neoliberal adjustment and opened the state oil industry to private investment. In November, about 1.3 million workers walked off the job in a general public sector strike (increasing unrest, stirred by left wing parties with an eye to next election in 1999); and in late August 1998, Caldera obtained legislation from Congress enabling him to rule by decree.


However, 1998 nuke strikes on oil industry –

Oil market damaged; trade damaged. Chavez seizes power as Caldera gov’t fails.
Strike actually by Soviets, as oil industrial base still owned by foreign firms, especially US oil companies.

However, other than military backing, Chavez does not have assets in place to provide aid. Unrest in Caracas and major cities; lack of communication with villages. Chavez concentrates military on remaining fuel resources, more or less as a strongman marshalling all resources to extend control south fomr the coast. He could claim marxist brotherhood with Cuba, but the Soviets aren't really around to do anything for him.

Lots of chaos, starvation, death, and lack of control in the hinterlands as you go south.

hmmm. look for any ethnic/race/class issues.

Interesting possibility - engineering aid (and possibily limited small arms and ammo) from (unnuked, uninvaded) Cuba for some fuel production.


Military

Navy: 2 German Type 209/1300-class SS, 6 Italian Lupo-class FF, 2 Almirante Clemente-class FF, 23 patrol craft, 4 Capana-class LST, 1 ex-US Terrebonne Parish-class LST.

Army:

1. Repairing oil facilities
2. Repairing roads
3. Providing large-scale stills

Economic

Home to an oil industry. – and nuked for it.

1994: suffers economic downturn due to falling oil prices and problems in banking industry.

Possible Targets:

• Punto Fijo, Venezuela
• Punto Cardon, Venezuela
• Bajo Grande Refinery - south of Maracaibo

Note that Curacao also sufferes a nuke strike on its refinery, whcih happens to be in the middle of its capital and largest city.

[Olefin]

Keep in mind a few things about the Dutch in the Antilles

The Marines aren't based just at Curacao - they are on Aruba as well and do exercises all the time on the other islands

Also most likely they aren't going to sit in their barracks right next to the refinery as they see other refineries go up in nuclear fireballs - so most likely any attack on the refinery is going to hit with them dispersed either to the other islands or to the airfield in the north of the island which is outside any potential nuke radius of what the Russians were using typically to take out refineries

also not every refinery was hit by nukes - as the canon says nuclear or conventional attack - having it taken out earlier in the war by conventional cruise missiles from a sub or a Spetsnaz operation out of Cuba is also a big possibility

I would think that the Dutch and French getting into conflict in 1998 would definitely be part of the war in the Caribbean and could explain why the pirates in 2000 were thinking the ships they were building in Grenada would be so effective - i.e. possibly the French and Dutch naval ships were taken out in fighting between themselves leaving nothing but small patrol craft at most

[lordroel]

Originally Posted by Olefin

Keep in mind a few things about the Dutch in the Antilles

The Marines aren't based just at Curacao - they are on Aruba as well and do exercises all the time on the other islands

Also most likely they aren't going to sit in their barracks right next to the refinery as they see other refineries go up in nuclear fireballs - so most likely any attack on the refinery is going to hit with them dispersed either to the other islands or to the airfield in the north of the island which is outside any potential nuke radius of what the Russians were using typically to take out refineries

also not every refinery was hit by nukes - as the canon says nuclear or conventional attack - having it taken out earlier in the war by conventional cruise missiles from a sub or a Spetsnaz operation out of Cuba is also a big possibility

I would think that the Dutch and French getting into conflict in 1998 would definitely be part of the war in the Caribbean and could explain why the pirates in 2000 were thinking the ships they were building in Grenada would be so effective - i.e. possibly the French and Dutch naval ships were taken out in fighting between themselves leaving nothing but small patrol craft at most

A here comes what i created for my own universe in handy, it would fit as far as i know what forces the Netherlands had in the Caribbean.

Netherlands Forces in the Caribbean in 1997

The Commander Netherlands Forces in the Caribbean (Dutch: Commandement der Zeemacht in het Caribisch Gebied, COMNLCARIB) is responsible for the activities of all forces in the Caribbean who operate from four bases (3 bases on Curaçao and 1 on Aruba).

The service branches, militias and volunteer corpses who operated in the Caribbean are:

The Royal Netherlands Navy (Dutch: Koninklijke Marine).

The 3 Amphibious Combat Group (Dutch: Derde Amfibische Gevechtsgroep, 3AGGP) of the Netherlands Marine Corps (Dutch: Korps Mariniers) which consist of the 31st, 32nd and 33rd infantry companies.

The Netherlands Naval Aviation Service (Dutch: Marine-Luchtvaartdienst, MLD).

The Royal Netherlands Air Force (Dutch: Koninklijke Luchtmacht, KLu).

The Royal Netherlands Marechaussee (Dutch: Koninklijke Marechaussee, KMar), military police.

Netherlands Antilles and Aruba Coastguard (Dutch: kustwacht voor de Nederlandse Antillen en Aruba, NA&A CG) (1).

The Antillean Militia (Dutch: Antilliaanse Militie, ANTMIL) which consist of three platoons (2).

The Aruban Militia (Dutch: Arubaanse Militie, ARUMIL) and the Curaçao Militia (Dutch: Curaçao Militie, CURMIL) which consist of one platoon each (3).

The Volunteer Corps Netherlands Antilles (Dutch: Vrijwilligers Korps Nederlandse Antillen, VKNA) is made up of three volunteer corpses namely the Volunteer Corps Aruba (Dutch: Vrijwilligers Korps Aruba, VKA), Volunteer Corps Curaçao (Dutch: Vrijwilligers Korps Curaçao, VKC) and the Volunteer Corps St. Maarten (Dutch: Vrijwilligers Korps St. Maarten).

Bases and deployments of Netherlands Forces in the Caribbean

Curacao: Parera Naval Base

Parera Naval Base, the main naval base for the Royal Netherlands Navy and headquarters of the Commander Netherlands Forces in the Caribbean where the station ship (Karel Doorman (M) class multi-purpose frigate) HNLMS Van Amstel, one permanent support ship HNLMS Pelikaan (4), six Rigid Hull Inflatable Boats and two P-class patrol boats (5) operated from.

Curacao: Marine Barracks Suffisant

Marine Barracks Suffisant (6), the main marine base which house the 31st and 32nd Infantry Company (7) of the 3 Amphibious Combat Group (8), a detachment of the Antillean Militia (Dutch: Antilliaanse Militie, ANTMIL) which is made up of a small training cadre and one infantry platoon, the Curaçao Militia and the Vrijwilligers Korps Curaçao (VKC) which is made up of some 120 volunteers.

Curaçao: Hato Airfield

Hato Airfield, the main military airfield with two Fokker F-27-M transport aircraft and two P3C-Orions.

Aruba: Savaneta Marine Barracks

Marine Barracks Savaneta (Dutch: Marinierskazerne Suffisant, MSKSUF) houses the 33rd infantry company of the 3 Amphibious Combat Group who also serves as a military education and training unit for the Antillean Militia which is made up of a training cadre and two infantry platoons, Volunteer Corps Aruba (Dutch: Vrijwilligers Korps Aruba, VKA) which is made up of some 100 volunteers and the Aruban Militia.

Sint Maarten

The Volunteer Corps St. Maarten (Dutch: Vrijwilligers Korps St. Maarten) which is made up of some 120 volunteers.

The Royal Netherlands Marechaussee has some 20 personal on the island of Sint Maarten to assist the local police.

Notes

(1) The Netherlands Antilles and Aruba Coastguard has approximately 160 personnel. Of these, 140 come from the Aruba, Curaçao, and Sint Maarten and 20 from the Royal Netherlands Navy. These 160 consist mostly of personnel actually deployed to carry out operations and the occupation of the Coast Guard bases located on Aruba, Curaçao, and Sint Maarten.

(2) The Antillean Militia consist of local conscript personnel and a small volunteer cadre numbering some 148 who form three infantry platoons. The Antillean Militia is trained, clothed and equipped by the Marine Corps as (conscript) marines. When mobilized the Antillean Militia will be made up of eight company-sized security detachments each with company strength of 148 men (totaling some 1,184 men) who would be commanded by Netherlands Marine Corps officers and sub-officers.

(3) The Aruban Militia and the Curaçao Militia are unlike the Antillean Militia made up of professional soldiers and have their own officers.

(4) HNLMS Pelikaan (A801) can carry 3 trucks, 6 land cruisers, 2 water trucks, 27 pallets of goods and equipment and a total of 40 marines.

(5) There are four P-class patrol boats who are operated by the Netherlands Antilles and Aruba Coastguard (NA&A CG). Two operate out of Curacao, one from Aruba and one patrol boat from Sint Maarten. Named P 1, P 2,P 3 and P 4 they have a displacement of 35 tons fully loaded, a speed of 18 and a complement of 6.

(6) Officially known as Detachment of Navy Base Parera, known until 1978 as Marine Barracks Suffisant (Dutch: Marinierskazerne Suffisant, MSKSUF).

(7) One company consist of a company staff, three infantry platoons, a combat support group and a service support group.

(8) Whit the outbreak of the Sino-Soviet War in 1995 the Royal Netherlands Marine Corps had station in the Caribbean the 21st Infantry Company stationed at Naval Base Parera (twenty-four men) and the 22nd Infantry Company stationed at Marine Barracks Savaneta (twenty-five men) part of the 2 Amphibious Combat Group (Dutch: Tweede Amfibische Gevechtsgroep, 2AGGP). When in July 1996 the Netherlands began to mobilize in responds due the West German Bundeswehr crossing the inter-German border into East Germany the two companies where redeployed back to the Netherlands. The two companies where replaced by the 3 Amphibious Combat Group (Dutch: Derde Amfibische Gevechtsgroep, 3AGGP).

[WallShadow]

Originally Posted by lordroel

Sint Maarten

The Volunteer Corps St. Maarten (Dutch: Vrijwilligers Korps St. Maarten) which is made up of some 120 volunteers.

The Royal Netherlands Marechaussee has some 20 personal on the island of Sint Maarten to assist the local police.

Notes

(1) The Netherlands Antilles and Aruba Coastguard has approximately 160 personnel. Of these, 140 come from the Aruba, Curaçao, and Sint Maarten and 20 from the Royal Netherlands Navy. These 160 consist mostly of personnel actually deployed to carry out operations and the occupation of the Coast Guard bases located on Aruba, Curaçao, and Sint Maarten.


(5) There are four P-class patrol boats who are operated by the Netherlands Antilles and Aruba Coastguard (NA&A CG). Two operate out of Curacao, one from Aruba and one patrol boat from Sint Maarten. Named P 1, P 2,P 3 and P 4 they have a displacement of 35 tons fully loaded, a speed of 18 and a complement of 6.



(8) Whit the outbreak of the Sino-Soviet War in 1995 the Royal Netherlands Marine Corps had station in the Caribbean the 21st Infantry Company stationed at Naval Base Parera (twenty-four men) and the 22nd Infantry Company stationed at Marine Barracks Savaneta (twenty-five men) part of the 2 Amphibious Combat Group (Dutch: Tweede Amfibische Gevechtsgroep, 2AGGP). When in July 1996 the Netherlands began to mobilize in responds due the West German Bundeswehr crossing the inter-German border into East Germany the two companies where redeployed back to the Netherlands. The two companies where replaced by the 3 Amphibious Combat Group (Dutch: Derde Amfibische Gevechtsgroep, 3AGGP).

Sint Maarten should be a hotbed of intrigue: France shares the island (St. Martin makes up the northern half). Considering the aggressive pre-emptive moves by France against the Benelux Countries and Germany's western border, I should think that shennanigans would be the order of the day, with infiltrations, recons, sabotage, and other tomfoolery going on between the two.

[kalos72]

Would love to see some numbers and TO&E's for these types of forces...

[lordroel]

Originally Posted by WallShadow

Sint Maarten should be a hotbed of intrigue: France shares the island (St. Martin makes up the northern half). Considering the aggressive pre-emptive moves by France against the Benelux Countries and Germany's western border, I should think that shennanigans would be the order of the day, with infiltrations, recons, sabotage, and other tomfoolery going on between the two.

I think with the Antillean Militia fully mobilized one or two company-sized security detachments (148 men each) would be station in St. Martin and maybe a platoon of the 3 Amphibious Combat Group might see the island of St. Martin to be a place where things will heat up soon.